The Boomers' unrequited love for World War II/III

It had its roots in father-worship, but now it's just plain pathetic

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I totally get it as an average White middle-aged American male: almost to a person we spend an inordinate amount of time studying WWII.

You, me, and Tony Soprano … we all do it, like there’s going to be a big test on our death beds.

Some personal proof:

I have watched (rewatched) the following in the last three months:

• The World at War 26-parter narrated by Laurence Olivier (the grand-daddy of all WWII docs) — link goes to Internet Archive (H/T my deceased father — a WWII vet)

  

• We Were the Lucky Ones: a human-centric tale of dislocation and disruption across a Polish Jewish family (on Hulu, H/T my spouse Vonne)

  

• Downfall: Hitler’s last days in his Berlin bunker (on Peacock, H/T my brother Ted)

• The Tattooist of Auschwitz: a novel but also a brilliant capture of long-term survival in a death camp (also on Peacock, H/T my spouse Vonne)

So, yeah, I get the touchstone and how it lingers in the brain. You see things and imagine patterns and boom! You’re the only person smart enough to recognize that we’re living in WWIII RIGHT NOW!

Yes, Jamie Dimon, I am looking at you:

Jamie’s proof is simple enough: coordinated military activity across the great Eurasian landmass.

In other words, North Korea sending munitions and troops to Russia’s frontlines with Ukraine.

From a Forbes story:

Russia, North Korea, and Iran—a trio Dimon previously labeled as an “evil axis”—as well as China, are actively working together to “dismantle” the systems set up by the allies following World War II such as NATO, he added.

“And they’re talking about doing it now,” he said in a recording obtained by Fortune. “They’re not talking about waiting 20 years. And so the risk of this is extraordinary if you read history.”

Referencing a Washington Post article, Dimon continued, “World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries.”

“Mistakes happen,” he added. “Look at how we tripped into World War II. When Czechoslovakia was split up—sounds a little like Ukraine—that was the end of it. Until they invaded Poland.”

America “tripping” into WWII is a tell alright.

To say the least, Ukraine is one proxy war in a long line of proxy wars among great powers (even nuclear powers) since WWII (in addition to being the latest Russia border fight in a long string of border fights under Putin), and yes, they all came with the risk of escalation. We’ve just never gotten WWIII for our troubles.

So, why now?

Dimon’s “evil axis” consists of three broken economies. Russians are stealing and hoarding butter (it doesn’t get much more guns-v-butter than that), Iran’s economy barely has a pulse, and NorKo’s grinds along munching on the bones of its people and whatever criminal activities it can swing globally. As “concerns,” they are barely going.

You can toss China into the mix and claim Beijing is all-in on these losers’ confrontations with the West, but you’d be kidding yourself. Iran and Russia and now just iterations of the issues that Beijing has long had with “ally” North Korea: China’s leaders enjoy having the anti-Western prods on their side but have no intention of sabotaging their economy for any of the mindless goals sought by Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang. And if NorKo’s current help to Moscow entails the latter aiding Kim’s reach for bigger and better nuclear weapons and delivery systems … that’s not something Beijing will welcome.

Under Deng, China went over to the side of marketization (unlike that trio) and has risen as a result. It has no intention of going back to widespread poverty and lacking any appreciable say in the global order. While it fears ostracization by the West, like that suffered by Putin, its response is not to hunker down and invite war but to aggressively and systematically build an information technology ecosystem that pulls as much of the Global South into its economic orbit as possible.

That, my friends, is some big-game hunting by Beijing.

Meanwhile, our Evil Axis trio … they’re just trying to keep their regimes afloat. Putin can talk all he wants about BRICS representing a “global majority” in terms of bodies — and economic growth. But that comet is driven overwhelmingly by China and India and has nothing to do with gas station Russia, the ever weakening “sick man” of Asia.

As for Iran? Anybody think they’re on the offensive and winning across the PG right now? Last time I checked, Israel was kicking ass everywhere all at once across Tehran’s fabled Axis of Resistance. The combined GDP of the Gulf Cooperation Council nations is four times the size of Iran’s faltering economy, so who do you think is going to win over the long haul? The one with incompetent military power Russia on its side or those with top-flight Israel and the US on their side?

As for North Korea, all it’s going to achieve for Beijing is to nuclearize South Korea — something Beijing has schemed to prevent for decades. Very possibly ditto with Japan.

In short, Beijing has a huge problem on its hands if any of this gets out of control — per Jamie Dimon’s fears. The U.S., however, does not. Instead, we have richer and plenty militarized allies in NATO vis-a-vis Russia, in the GCC + Israel vis-a-vis Iran, and in the Quad countries (Australia, India, Japan, US) vis-a-vis NorKo or even China-v-Taiwan.

Nobody in their right strategic mind would trade our hand for China’s — much less Russia’s or Iran’s or NorKo’s.

So why do we mentally keep seeking a re-run of WWII, spotting its emerging patterns all around us seemingly all the time?

Boomers grew up in the mystical shadow of WWII. Every authority figure in our universe served in some capacity in that war, and it was — in retrospect only — a very “good war” that Americans “universally” approved. We know that, because, when Vietnam tore our nation apart, that was the great historical touchstone against which we judged Boomers’ rebellious and “cowardly” behavior.

Now, with Boomers aging out, there is this weird, instinctive need to declare WWIII every chance we get. It’s almost like the Boomers need to have one before they age out of power so as to justify their decades of incompetent and divisive rule: See! It was all worthwhile!

WWIII is not happening, nor are we going to wage vast battles to control the heartland, as Nicholas Eberstadt is now peddling. Eberstadt is brilliant on demographics and pure BS (embarrassingly so) on geopolitics.

As North Korean soldiers head into possible combat in Europe — the degree of their ultimate military involvement might turn out to be much greater than generally appreciated — a “World-Island”-style contest seems to be falling into place. Four ambitious, revisionist states at the heart of Eurasia — Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — are coordinating ever more closely to challenge, if not shatter, the prevailing international security order known as Pax Americana.

Yes, yes, this is why China is investing trillions in its Belt and Road Initiative … just to put it all at risk by “shattering” the security order that allowed its rise. Clever bastards!

Again with this obsession over the “heartland,” with Eberstadt resurrecting Mackinder’s theory:

“Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland: Who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island: Who rules the World-Island commands the World.”

So, get this: NorKo puts Russia over the top on Ukraine, meaning those two rule Eastern Europe and, on that basis, the world-island that includes China (which will be on their side in all things) and India and Europe, and, on that basis, the entirely of the world (because China is going to share its control of the Global South with triumphant vassals Moscow and Pyongyang).

That’s doesn’t sound crazy at all … if this were a Stanley Kubrick black comedy.

But, back in the real world? This is absolutely nutter!

Yes, yes, just as the global economy digitalizes to the point where, today, more than half of the value in global trade comes in digital form, we are necessarily doomed to fight over some resource center of gravity (Ukraine’s wheat?) located in the middle of Eurasia’s vast landmass.

Ah, but Putin’s crushing blow against “Nazi regime” (see, both sides can play this idiotic game) in Ukraine hasn’t gone as planned, Eberstadt admits. But this only opens the door for more danger and oppositional strength: Putin turns to Kim for more meat-wave material in the form of NorKo’s best troops. Truly, this is a sign of strength and devious collaboration and not mere desperation.

I mean, after all, we’re talking about adding in a “super-militarized but acutely-impoverished regime” looking for help in making itself more of each.

Eberstadt explains how this should scare us: Russia is basically running out of ammo and troops, and now survives with an infusion of each from North Korea — long known for the sheer excellence of its military technology.

Is this not a dangerous development? I mean, we’re talking about 10,000 fresh dead bodies to a Russia that’s already suffered … over half a million casualties and a solid 100k dead?

Is that Russia winning or losing?

Eberstadt’s counterfactual offering here is downright hilarious:

Consider for a moment: Could it really make sense to Putin to ask for Kim’s troops simply to help Russia bleed out more slowly? [Duh! It’s called desperation!] Or for Kim to commit his best forces to a campaign aiming to achieve at best modest gains [When has that regime ever wasted its own people on stupid, marginal gains?], when that immensely risky decision to cross the Eurasian Rubicon necessarily entails prospects of indeterminate losses among his elite units and incalculable consequences if unhappy rumors from the front spread back home? [Ah yes, Kim lives in terror of rumors among his people.]

Perhaps so. [my jaw-drops]

That is possibly the worst geo-strategic analysis I have ever read. I mean, talk-the-man-off-the-ledge kind of goofy.

Ah, but maybe there is a scarier explanation Eberstadt can borrow: Some North Korea expert [Bruce Bechtol] projects Kim maybe sending 50,000 troops to Ukraine to turn the tide and win Russia’s war!

Sure, why the hell not?

Bechtol’s worst-case “nightmare” hypothesis is a scenario that might never come to pass [details!]— but it is precisely the sort of strategic surprise from the new Russia-North Korean partnership that Western governments should be preparing for [Why not, as we have unlimited resources!]. And, so far, they don’t appear to be doing so. [A scary sign in and of itself, to be sure!]

This is consider strategic thinking?

Yes, yes, we should all be soiling ourselves over that one.

But that tidbit, tasty as it is, is just the set-up for Eberstadt’s big finish: Add in China and we’ve got a scarier package than the Germany-Italy-Japan axis of WWII.

Why? Three of them have nukes and that changes everything, does it not? Mutually-assured destruction be damned, the sheer fact of their combined scheming is proof that . . . I dunno … nuclear wars can be won now?

Somebody alert Omaha!

Eberstadt spooks us with the notion that the four powers '“are already more deeply integrated, both economically and militarily, than were the Axis powers of World War II.” (!)

Read it and weep at the power of this economic and military integration!

China and Russia subsidize North Korea. [Hmm, scary!] Russia relies on China for markets (lucky Moscow), Iran for drones (they have the best in the … eastern shore of the PG) and North Korea for materiel and soldiers [a treasure trove of both, if ever there was one]. Iran gets military technology from North Korea [Hmm. Impressive!] and economic cooperation with Russia and China [Iran’s economy is booming as a result!]. And they serve as defense attorneys for one another in international and diplomatic forums. [What you talking about, Willis?]

That is impressive. Why hasn’t anybody seen this unmatched power being assembled?

Eberstadt is just getting warmed up:

We must look at the threats we face on World-Island [Hmm. Europe plus Asia is like a giant world island!] today from the Heartland dictators with new, more strategically sophisticated lenses [like one devised around the. turn of the 20th century, when all of today’s problems were clearly in view]. We must come to understand that, for all intents and purpose, the war in Gaza and Lebanon against Israel by Iranian proxies is the war by Russia against Ukraine [Holy shit!], as would be the war in Taiwan that China may unleash [Ah, now I see the pattern!], at a time of Beijing’s own choosing. All one.

OMFG!

THIS IS ALREADY ONE GIANT WAR AND IT’S ALL AGAINST US!

WAKE UP!

Clearly, Russia is winning, Iran is winning, NorKo is just poised to win big, and China … Beijing is just going to risk it all with this winning hand of Iran/NorKo/Russia.

The scales have fallen from my eyes!

Eberstadt’s conclusion: we have to fight all of these Heartland dictators all the time.

Sound familiar?

The Cold War saw us work Europe agains the Sovs, Asia against the commie threat posed primarily by China, and later (Carter Doctrine) the threat of Eastern meddling in the PG (crystalized by the Iranian Revolution).

Now, it’s all back and it’s all back at a level that justifies legit fears of WWIII (which, BTW, already began!], which means we must go full bore on Cold Wars and containment strategies across the entirety of the Eurasian landmass as NOTHING HAS CHANGED! … LIKE …. SINCE I WAS A BABY!

I rest my case.

Boomers are incapable of seeing a world that isn’t an extension of their origin story (WWII).

Naturally, in this world, we can’t waste any time on the rest of the world, or climate change, or any other distraction. We have to hold the WWIII-preventing line and, by doing so, finally turn ourselves into an even Greater Generation than our fathers.

Give me four more years of Boomer leadership and I’ll give you WWIII.

I promise.

Such is the sad state of strategic thinking in the US today.

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