AGI = UBI

The rising tide needs to lift all boats, or there will be hell to pay!

The big idea is out there, floating around:

• The structural disruption (mass unemployment?) triggered by the arrival of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• The ever-more-grotesque concentration of wealth in a billionaire class in a society overwhelming living paycheck to paycheck (I can’t afford my medicine but Jeff Bezos gets to fly his celebrity buddies into space on a regular basis?)

• The general aging of the population, to which a low birth rate contributes

• Our already two-decades-long bout of economic populism that has yet to produce acceptable real-world answers.

The general sense: something has to give, as the economic landscape is going to be further tilted in a politically unsustainable manner. Then there’s the profound makeover of work, which will demand massive amounts of regular vocational training (with virtually no one exempted). Then there’s the logic of work-life balance shifting to the latter, not just to live better (and consume more) but to be able to better handle the growing pool of elderly and to encourage a higher birth rate. Then there’s the “escape velocity” to be reached in biotech, allowing for great life extension therapies that will be expensive and yet nonetheless viewed by the masses as a human right (see the just-out Black Mirror episode entitled “Common People”).

This tumultuous and entirely upsetting future is barreling toward us and we are unprepared — mentally and structurally.

For decades, we had an industrial-era model with pensions and healthcare provided by employers with whom we stayed employed for decades, providing profound stability in our socio-economic and political systems. Our industrial-era educational system cranked our workers, processing them by their production batch (birth year).

Those systems were supposed to solve the great social issues of the 20th century — and they largely succeeded. I mean, compare the first half of the 20th century (1900-1950) to the second half (1950-2000). That was a huge pivot from world wars and a Great Depression to the period of greatest wealth creation and poverty reduction the world has ever known.

But here’s the trick, by accomplishing all that we basically doubled the world’s life expectancy at birth from the low-to-mid-30s to roughly 70 years (closest estimate is 32 rising to 67).

I know, talk about a buried headline, but it’s one that forces a new form of capitalism to emerge — that is, if today’s capitalists want to remain capitalists.

That industrial-era model of capitalism has tapped out, meaning great structural reforms are needed to keep the peace and to stop the infuriated poor from eating the “White Lotus” rich — with relish. If we want our politics to calm down, we’ll need to simplify the social welfare state, dignifying it considerably and FINALLY start paying for unpaid (or grossly underpaid) labor in our economy (like those who take care of their kids and elder relatives, presently undocumented migrant laborers who sustain a great number of our industries, and our future labor pool [yes, pay for kids directly if you want them so goddam bad!]).

We need to address this VUCA situation (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity) that is wearing down the average person considerably and making their life miserable on many levels, and, on that score, Universal Basic Income (UBI) as the giant political salve makes a ton of sense.

You don’t want DEI and “wokeness” etc? Then get rid of the welfare state and all its demeaning and divisive classifications. End all the complex applications for this and that and simply provide the UBI — no questions asked.

And yeah, if you filthy rich want to keep your money and keep flaunting your conspicuous consumption, then pay up and stop deceiving the public with your schemes to avoid paying taxes, because they are despicable and immoral.

Our lives are presently too tense, too stressful, and too enraging. The rich and political elites either defuse this situation or it only grows far worse with AGI’s arrival. Because the alternative is that the rich will otherwise eventually be hunted down as a good source of low-fat protein.

The model is not hard to envision.

Fund UBI through tax-revenue-raising mechanisms tied to automation profits and economic restructuring. That means taxing AI-driven profits, or what some call a “robot tax.” And yes, the large AI companies, like OpenAI, which may well capture trillions in profits and value — if left to run wild and free, will become the primary targets for revenue-generation. That may well necessitate a new class of public-private companies that are both profit and non-profit in nature.

Along similar lines, sovereign wealth funds may logically play a substantial role as sustainable funding sources, fed by automation-derived taxes.

Digital currencies will play a key role, with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) enforcing spending rules (e.g., expiration dates or usage restrictions) to prevent inflation, allowing governments to distribute UBI while maintaining economic stability.

All of the existing social-welfare spending by the government would be reallocated toward generating the UBI, radically reducing that bureaucracy and the social stigma attached to its recipients — who now become all of us instead of just being “those people.”

The danger of inflation would be substantial, but this is where AGI-driven productivity gains would save the day.

The effect on the global system would be highly beneficial, as sovereign wealth funds require significant international cooperation to manage cross-border investments. Nations would also have to cooperate to deal with tech giants that will naturally oppose profit-sharing models, necessitating global regulatory frameworks so that these companies cannot escape their responsibilities to the public.

Are you hearing this, Ireland?

The dream?

We’re talking the systematic conversion of “automation wealth” into societal benefits that regrade the economic landscape and calm the political scene, with success defined as transitioning from UBI to UHI (or Universal High Income) as the new social contract-system coheres and evolves and expands while investments compound.

At that point, Gene Roddenberry’s Star Trek future looks a whole lot more feasible and we can turn Elon Musk loose on our settlement of Mars.

Mark my words: this IS going to happen.

Not because it is cool and visionary but because it HAS TO HAPPEN if we don’t want our societies and economies and politics to collapse in that most Marxian way (i.e., the angry 99% hunting down and killing the privileged One Percent).

This is the genius of the combination of democracy and capitalism: when technological push comes to economic shove, political adaption is forced and eventually achieved.

You have your orders. Please proceed at the fastest possible pace, as the Singularity countdown clock is getting louder.

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