Biden's stick-and-carrot on Rafah
Smart move but performative
All sorts of talk about a “grand bargain” is being offered to terminate or somehow curtail Israel’s ongoing demolition of Gaza — the final target being the southern city of Rafah, presently home to about a million people and (presumably) some worthwhile Hamas targets. The stick, in this instance, is Biden’s drawing of a “red line” (Don’t demolish Gaza with all those people still in it!) — along with the threat of holding up some bomb shipments (purely symbolic) if Israel crosses that line, while the carrot is the touted grand bargain that’s really been out there for quite some time and so does not constitute a new give of any sort.
Biden’s “grand bargain” is the one stemming from Trump’s old Abraham Accords, which involved the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. The follow-on negotiations since then have centered on this larger deal that would see :
Saudi Arabia recognize Israel (the only Arab recognition that matters)
Israel accept some two-state solution regarding Gaza and the West Bank, presumably with the curtailment/cessation/ending of Israeli settlement activity and lots of Gulf monarchy aid flowing in
America sign a defense pact with Saudi Arabia — against Iran
American help in developing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear industry (read, latent bomb-making capacity to match Iran’s).
In all, a good deal wherein Biden extends Trump’s initial successes.
That, of course, is the potential deal that freaked out both Tehran and its minions Hezbollah and Hamas but particularly the latter, which saw this diplomatic momentum basically ending the Palestinian cause within the larger Sunni Arab world (it would still be strong with Shiite Persian Iran but that would never be enough).
From Hamas’ perspective, “stabbed in the back” would not be too strong of a description.
So, leveraging years and years of Iranian military support and aid, Hamas launched its mini-invasion last 7 October, setting in motion Israel’s dismantling and demolition of Gaza since. As I have argued throughout, Israel’s stated objective of eliminating Hamas is a smokescreen. Nobody thinks Israel can do that — not even Israel.
Netanyahu and company (and he has a lot of company from across the spectrum in Israel right now) are hell-bent on eliminating Gaza as a future threat vector, meaning it essentially ends as a Palestinian enclave and eventually is subjected to incremental settlement by Israelis over time — like in the West Bank.
Israel’s efforts along this line to-date have been very bloody in terms of collateral damage (very purposeful) and collateral loss of life (Israel has made huge and decidedly ethical efforts to minimize that). Israel has also clearly shown that it is willing to take any and all abuse in response.
As I have noted here time and again, that abuse is — by and large — entirely tolerable from the Israeli perspective: some stepped-up missile grief from Hezbollah, the performative back-and-forth with Iran, international condemnation, and a growing frustration from the US about all the damage (and let’s not forget the heartfelt but annoying campus protests here).
As I have also noted, what Israel is doing is tantamount to ethnic cleansing (clearing a region of an ethnic group) but not at all a question of genocide (there, the outside criticism is way past plausible). Israel has clearly set in motion a humanitarian disaster across Gaza — and quite purposefully as a prod (stick) to get Palestinians to abandon the land in great numbers (the carrot being survival).
So far, as far as I can tell, of Gaza’s prewar population of 2.2-2.3m, 80-85 percent of them have been internally displaced: mostly moved southward over time as Israel started its clearing operations in the north and progressively moved south, with Rafah now the last great holdout described as having over one million souls within its confines).
How many have left Gaza entirely? Close to half a million by the estimates I am seeing (15-20%). If true, then Rafah would seem to hold about 60 percent of the Palestinians still in Gaza. Hence, the sense of urgency within the Biden administration to end this conflict before casualty numbers reach their maximum.
Will Israel heed Biden’s red line?
I would be stunned if the Netanyahu government did that, for many reasons.
First off, the Israeli government is all-in on this elimination of Gaza as a future threat vector.
Two, Biden’s withholding of the bombs is meaningless. A nice gesture but operationally insignificant.
Three, the whole grand bargain being offered is the same one that’s been there for quite some time now, so it’s hard to see why its resurrection would satisfy Israel right now.
Four, the whole grand bargain will still be there post-Rafah and post-Gaza. Why? the deal is just too attractive for the Saudis and Mr. in-the-doghouse MBS (Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia):
MBS wants out of the doghouse
the Kingdom wants that defense pact with the US
MBS wants that nuclear capacity vis-a-vis Iran (however latent it must remain for PR purposes).
For Riyadh then, Israel is simply a far better partner going forward than the Palestinian cause, which has always been a losing cause and always will be.
Israel is betting on that grand bargain still making sense down the road, and it’s a solid bet.
In fact, Israel always retains the prerogative of jacking up the Iranian threat whenever it sees fit, like it did recently with the hits on top Iranian military officials. Just like Tehran can rattle Hamas’ cage whenever it wants some diversionary action, Israel too can rattle Iran’s cage to achieve some fear-threat reaction among the Saudis and Gulf emirates.
The same effect holds for the West in general and the US in particular over the DREADED REGIONAL WAR scenario that Israel flashes whenever it makes sense to provide diplomatic top cover for what Jerusalem feels has to be done vis-a-vis Hamas and Gaza right now. It is a clever would you rather drill: would you rather I do my business in Gaza as I see fit or start a regional war involving Iran and the Gulf monarchies?
I guarantee you that every time that question is posed by Israel — in so many words and/or actions — the answer of the world’s great powers (except Russia) is Do what you must in Gaza.
Yes, all will publicly condemn the slaughter and destruction, but the logic of the lesser evil prevails, along with the reality that no government in this world is really going to sacrifice anything over the Palestinian cause in general and Gaza in particular.
It just ain’t gonna happen.
Do I think Biden signaled all this red-line stuff in advance to Netanyahu? I would hope so.
And I’m pretty sure the White House got a definitive reply quite fast.
Still, Biden has an election to win, plus his own conscience to placate, and so he makes the threat/offer.
It’s just not much of a threat nor much of an offer.
I would expect Biden to continue down this disputatious path right through early November, only to back off once the election is done (win or lose).
It seems clear to me that if you want Israel to be forced to pay a bigger price than the one currently being touted, you’re better off sticking with Biden. Trump, if he wins, will be one solid green light for Israeli aggression going forward, which means, in my opinion, that a Biden win would be much better and safer for Israel over the long haul.
Why?
Biden will forgive Rafah and accept Gaza’s deconstruction, and that grand bargain will still happen — just later on and with more urgency.
Along those lines, Israel’s periodic goading of Tehran is useful, and, quite frankly, so too would be Iran’s rapid reach for the Bomb.
If I were Israel, I would almost hope for the latter because of the profound and truly unassailable diplomatic top cover that would provide Israel, giving it a have-my-cake-and-eat-it-too outcome (Gaza gone, the grand bargain sealed).
A lot of the analysis in the West emphasizes just how screwed Israel is because of its demolition of Gaza.
I’m just not seeing it, and I don’t Israel sees it either.
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