Conflicting lessons learned on conflict

More ammo/platforms versus more drones as the near-term debate

Nothing agitates the US Military more than to be watching others fight while America mostly stands on the sidelines. It is unnerving and exciting at the same time because it feels like others are jumping ahead on tactics but then teaching the Pentagon about the future of war at the same time — thus raising various debates over the future force (what to buy).

Remember: the Combatant Commands run today’s wars, while the Pentagon runs tomorrow’s wars.

Ukraine is clearly the lab-of-tomorrow right now, with its weird mix of WWI-like trench warfare and high-tech drones making the battlefield seemingly untenable for infantry better off staying hidden at all times — as in, get noticed, get killed.

But, as noted here before, the situation isn’t much better for high-end platforms, as Ukraine just scored another win for the little guys when it took out a $65m Russian warship with drones (of course, with a cool YouTube video replete with stirring soundtrack). So it’s another case of drones costly in the tens of thousands wiping out a platform costing in the tens of millions.

Stick that in your defense budget.

But before you get all jacked about how all those networks can be jammed or have their satellites blown up (the revenge of the platforms), understand that the workarounds being developed all lie within that OODA loop dynamic — meaning several steps ahead of bureaucratic responses (ours or the enemy's).