End conditions, end games

Gaza and Ukraine are coming into some focus, among other dynamics

Israel is slowly but surely signaling how Gaza will be permanently diminished, the three most profound examples being the two built-in corridors designed to cut the Strip in half and deny easy access from Egypt, plus the carved-out buffer rimming the entire space. In all, a substantial loss of territory and a profound imposition of Israeli control.

This is the price Hamas generated with its attacks, and, frankly, the Israelis are showing some real restraint — not on the current humanitarian disaster in Gaza but on the future end state. Israel will let the former situation fester as long as it must to achieve acceptance of the latter. That is the “negotiation” going on now.

Brutal but effective.

Netanyahu and Co. know they will get a free hand from any Trump administration and, after last night, they know that a Harris administration will not be holding their feet to any fire. Meanwhile, facts accumulate on the ground — the Israeli way. The notion of a two-state solution … left to rhetoric.

Back at the ranch, Iran dithers on its latest military response to Israel’s latest assassination on its soil. I’m not holding my breath for anything beyond a performative punch.

Whether or not things are settling down, reality is setting in. No one is coming to Hamas’ rescue, nor to Palestine’s in general. Israel has shown tremendous determination to make clear what Hamas “earned” on 7 October, and you can sense the nation’s willingness to go further if suitably prompted.

Faster than you might imagine, I can see the old Abraham Accords package being resurrected by either administration, with KSA purchasing its US defense pact by recognizing Israel. We can pretty much count on Iran continuing to prompt that larger outcome with its hostility and strikes.

So, instead of some magnificent “regional war,” I’m seeing the same old, same old coming to the forefront amidst the general trajectory of the Gulf monarchies + Israel v. Iran and its Axis of Resistance. In the end, 7 October will not register as a major detour but merely as a minor delay in the grand scheme of things.

Meanwhile, looking up at Ukraine, I am intrigued and impressed by Modi’s decision to stop by for a chat. That is a pretty bold signal, in my mind, not unlike China recently making it clear that it’s not exactly Beijing’s responsibility to buy up all of Putin’s oil so as to keep his war machine running. China is buying less Russian oil for the most prosaic of reasons: weak refining margins that make Malaysian crude a better deal.

A friend in need … doesn’t exactly overrule a profit margin, it seems.