India's developmental race

It's one big show-me-the-money dynamic, unfolding on multiple levels

Jim Nuttle illustration from “America’s New Map”

India is racing like crazy to cash in its one-time-only demographic dividend. There are any number of intimidating timelines involved.

First and most obviously, India’s demographic dividend has arrived. It is unfolding to the tune of adding a million new workers to the nation’s labor pool every month! That is what happens when your demo-div is half a billion in size.

That is intimidating all on its own, politically speaking. Joe Biden can brag about creating 15m jobs over three or so years. Modi, India’s PM now up for re-election, needs to aim for that level basically every year.

That is tough, tough, tough.

Second, the demographic transition is a one-way street. Once begun, there is no turning-back point — only failure along the lines of the Malthusian Trap (population growth not matched by food production).

Third, the time involved in these demographic transitions has shortened over time. America’s ran about three decades (1945-1973). Japan had three decades of strong population growth (1960-1990). But China’s cash-in period was closer to 20-25 years max (1985-2010), and SE Asia’s looks more like two decades (2010-2030). In sum, we should expect India’s golden moment to be closer to two decades than three – if that pattern holds.