Israelis' breaking point reached

The numbers no longer make sense

The timeline was always there:

• Kill as many Hamas leaders and soldiers as possible before the civilian casualties got too much for the world to bear.

• Permanently diminish Gaza as a threat source (buffer, corridors).

• Accomplish as much as feasible on the tunnel system.

• And then, when the breaking point is reached with the Israeli public, cut the deal on the hostages and end this thing as a recognized military action, shifting to implementation of the new security system.

Throughout it all, Israel needed to keep the West Bank from going too wild, along with parrying all the punches by Iran and its proxies. Then there’s keeping the Americans on board.

A full menu, to say the least, and to have managed to balance it all for 11 months is amazing.

But the timeline was always bookended by public support: skyrocket-high immediately following 7 Oct and on a downward glide path since. Eventually, two lines intersect:

• The one that indicates what the Israeli people can stomach in terms of waiting/hoping on the hostages’ return

• The other that indicates the accumulated harm inflicted on Gaza and its residents.

As long as the first remained just high enough, the second could be gainfully pursued.

But eventually, the Israeli people tire out … max out … no longer recognize the logic.

The two lines have intersected — for many Israelis.

Now, the numbers are all wrong: decisive military action that kills Hamas in the ones and twos while killing Palestinians in the dozens.

Again, this was never about proportionality; this was about threat reduction at whatever the bearable cost.

The problem that triggered this was the recovery of six dead Israeli hostages. At that point the equation suddenly became 1-2 dead Hamas for dozens of dead Palestinians and six dead hostages — hostages clearly executed within 2-3 days of discovery, which was likely signaling on the part of Hamas.