Israel's calculations on Iran and Gaza

By threatening wider war, Israel now has a green light to destroy Rafah

Iran’s combo missile/drone attack against Israel — its first-ever direct (meaning not through proxies) military strike against Israelis — is sending shock waves through the US foreign policy establishment, as expected and by design. It was a unprecedented strike that now establishes Iran’s “right” or willingness or whatever to do so.

Still, I consider it wrong to get wrapped around the axle on this, because everything that occurs in the Middle East is always so calculated and, even here, nobody is signaling a desire for a wider war — just the opposite.

First off, let’s agree that this was a Rubicon-crossing event for Iran but less so for Israel, which has long gone about directly targeting Iranian senior personnel, having done so most recently on Iranian sovereign ground (the consulate in Syria). Now, of course, any American can answer that one with a how about the US embassy in Tehran in 1979? Or when Trump took out Quds boss Qasim Suleimani?

And that would be fair, but that’s a different dyad. In Israel’s Syria consulate strike, Iran felt like it took a direct hit — basically an assassination of a top military leader by a regional rival (not the US), so payback had to happen.

And yet, look at the payback so studiously offered:

• Warning in advance; by all accounts

• A slo-mo strike that I heard about via the news hours before it hit (not exactly out of the blue if news can cover it for hours)

• Purposeful targeting of military targets (no cities)

• Then Israel shooting down an extremely high percentage (with US and Jordanian help)

• Leaving no deaths, and finally

• Iran signaling rather openly and quickly that this ends it as far as Tehran is concerned.

That was not a real strike; that was a performative military operation actually designed to cause no deaths — pure theater.

No real mystery here regarding Iran’s motivations: to them, Israel crossed the Rubicon first by striking its consulate, so the direct missile/drone strike was an escalation alright, but — again — calculated, along with the signaling over other media, to send such-and-such a message but not to trigger further escalation.

The US has received all the same messaging from Iran, and thus counsels Israel to “take the win” — as in, you got the guy you wanted and really suffered nothing in the blowback.

For Israel, the calculation here is mysterious.

Why pick this fight right now? Knowing it would trigger an escalation from Iran?

Israel is getting ready for a major assault on Rafah in Gaza. That is basically the last step in Israel’s thorough decimation of Gaza by demolishing its southern-most urban hub (all that really remains at this point).

That is going to be a magnificently bloody assault, with lots of collateral deaths among civilians. Israel is going to face renewed global anger over this.

All this is known and easily predicted.

So, again, why pick this fight right now with Iran? Israel could target these guys anytime they wanted but they did so in a way they knew would provoke a strong Iranian escalation to save face.

Israel also knew it would likely face the sort of attack from Iran that actually unfolded.

Israel would have also known it could handle the attack, precisely because it would be delivered in a performative manner.

Israel likewise knew it would shake up the US foreign policy establishment along with capitals across the world: Is this the start of the wider regional war we’ve all been waiting on?

Israel knew all that, and chose to pick this fight right now for precisely those outcomes.

Why?

Israel’s Syria strike on Iranian senior military personnel is all about creating diplomatic top-cover for what comes next in Rafah.

Thanks to that calculated strike by Israel (and the easily predicted and toothless Iranian response), Israel’s assault on, and decimation of, Rafah can now be cast as the lesser evil.

Now, this attack will actually be greeted with sighs of relief in major capitals.

Now, no matter what the blowback is to Israel, it will be nothing compared to Israel stepping up with a direct attack on Iran.

In effect, by picking this fight, knowing full well what the resulting pathway of events would be, Israel purchased for itself a get-out-of-international-community-jail card on Rafah.

Now, the green light is lit.

That is some serious strategizing on Israel’s part, and, so far, everyone is playing their roles to the hilt.

Rafah will be demolished.

Many Palestinians will die.

Israel’s attack will be written off as the lesser of two evils (It could have been so much worse if a regional war had started!).

Israel’s demolition of Rafah is also now opportunistically cast as a legit response to Iran’s direct attack (bonus points).

All the fear-mongering about a wider war is the perfect cover for Israel completing its demolition and eradication of Gaza.

That is why Israel chose this fight at this time, to manipulate the looming Rafah blowback.

Again, pretty damn smart.