Israel's decision to go decidedly uptempo with the Axis of Resistance

Netanyahu government seeks to dictate terms on a regional war already engaged

The signaling here is multifaceted and brutally clear: If Hamas thought that 7 October sneak attack was going to put Israel behind the eight ball vis-a-vis a resurgent Axis of Resistance, then Israel has stepped out of that scenario by breaking pool sticks over the heads of each and every one of them in succession.

In Hollywood high-concept terms, the world was expecting Batman and got the Joker instead. And yeah, we are collectively shocked.

With this latest stunning pager strike against Hezbollah— obviously months in the making, Israel makes clear that it is dictating the terms of its future security, waiting on no one’s approval and aggressively targeting its regional enemies in as preemptive a fashion as possible.

In short, the regional war we all feared is already here, declared by Israel itself.

If this were a movie, the action montage here would be stunning:

• An April Israeli airstrike targets the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing at least 16 people, including several senior commanders of the IRGC.

• In retaliation, Iran launches an unprecedented direct attack on Israel using over 300 drones and missiles, eliciting Israel’s equally audacious response of missile strikes targeting Iranian military installations in Isfahan, to include damaging parts of Iran's S-300 air defense system.

• In May, Israel conducts further strikes aimed at Iranian military assets in Syria and Lebanon, taking the fight to Hezbollah and Iranian forces operating near its borders.

• In June, Israeli operations continue to target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, to include still more airstrikes against Iranian assets in Syria.

• In July, following a drone strike from Yemen’s Houthis, Israeli aircraft targeted military facilities and oil infrastructure in Hodeidah, claiming that the port was used for military purposes by the Houthis. Up to then, Hodeidah port was accounting for 70% of Yemen’s commercial imports and 80% of foreign humanitarian aid flows. Israel’s attack laid waste to the port, inflicting damage in the hundreds of millions of dollars in response to a drone attack that killed one Israeli. That is signaling.

• In August, Israel conducts targeted strikes against key Axis figures, including Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. More intense signaling.

• Now in September comes the coordinated pager attack targeting almost 3,000 Hezbollah personnel — the whole point being to instill systemic fear within its ranks.

All of this is purposefully disproportional — again, strategic signaling at its finest.

You know the story from Spielberg’s movie Munich:

After Black September's assassination of Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972, Prime Minister Golda Meir okays a covert operation to hunt down and kill all involved. A team of five gathers in Switzerland led by Avner, a low-level Mossad techie whose father was a war hero and whose wife is pregnant. It's an expendable team, but relying on paid informants, they track and kill several in Europe and Lebanon. They must constantly look over their shoulders for the CIA, KGB, PLO, and their own sources. As the body count mounts -- with retribution following retribution -- so do questions, doubts, and sleepless nights. Loyalties blur. What does it mean to be a Jew?

Well, this time, Israel isn’t waiting for its extended payback and it has clearly worked out any moral quandaries for now, thus its willingness — even eagerness — to very publicly signal its intent and ambitions.

In short, it’s not just enough to decimate and demolish and diminish the Strip. Israel needs to take the fight directly to the entire Axis to signal just how willing it is to go to the mattresses for however long Iran wants this to play out.

The timing is good, in that regard.

Iran just got a “reformist” PM — a sure sign that it’s hurting from all those sanctions and looking to escape that economic prison cell.

Iran’s been caught hacking the Trump campaign, fearing his return. But, frankly, I would be more worried about Harris if I was them. By all accounts, she is brutally calculating — like any good prosecutor. Either way, the Biden administration has Israel’s back for as long and hard as it wants to pursue what increasingly feels like a preemptive — if undeclared — regional war.

Israel has sought to transform its strategic landscape since the October 7 attack by Hamas, which left it feeling exposed and vulnerable in ways it hasn’t for many years. Thus, Israel’s response had to match that momentousness, resulting in a thorough reevaluation of its military and diplomatic strategies that has catalyzed a broader Israeli strategy not only focused on immediate military responses but also on long-term geopolitical objectives against Iran and its minions across the region.

October 7 highlighted not just a singular threat from Hamas but also the interconnectedness of Iranian-backed entities that threaten Israel's security. Thus, to deal with the proximate threat (Hamas) is to deal with the ultimate threat (Iran). The effectiveness of this strategy depends on Israel's ability to unify its internal political landscape while keeping patron America on board. Logically, that balancing act translates now to some Israeli “gives” on Gaza while punching hard against Iran and Co.

The problem?

Israel’s ambitions here are significant, as evidenced by the Hezbollah pager strike. It wants to reclaim security in its north, where 60k Israelis were forced to leave by continued Hezbollah attacks.

From David Ignatius in WAPO:

The political pressure to deal with “the north,” as Israelis call it, has become nearly as intense as the desire for the hostages’ freedom. “When it comes to Lebanon and the north, there is a growing consensus in Israel that something needs to be done,” said the source familiar with Israeli thinking. The source also noted that the Israeli cabinet on Monday had added a new goal to its list of war aims: The return of Israelis to their homes near the border with Lebanon.

It’s been Israel’s past success in targeting Hezbollah through their phones that drove the group to re-embrace pagers — now tainted by this supply-chain attack that — in its audacity and legacy — approaches the level of legend.

Trust me, this movie gets green-lit.