It's go time for Greater Israel

From the river to the sea, radical acceptance of what inevitably will be

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The historical concept of Greater Israel comes in several packages, to include quite expansive definitions culled from the Bible (God granted these lands …). The definition I am using here is the modern, geopolitical one that basically says Israel liquidates and annexes both Gaza and the West Bank, so no sovereign territory to be gained from Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, or Egypt, but a definitive end to the two-state concept that accommodates Palestinians.

The internal Israeli political movement has always been there, and, given the tragedy of 7 October and the profound military momentum it has spawned in Israel’s favor — along with Iran’s weakened state and Trump’s return to power in the US, there will never be a better time for Israel to bite the bullet and get it done.

From WAPO:

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich welcomed President-elect Donald Trump’s electoral victory Monday, saying that “the time has come” to extend full Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank.

He made the comment a day after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a recorded statement that he has spoken three times with Trump since the election and that they “see eye to eye on the Iranian threat.”

Israel’s aggressive dismantling of Gaza as a livable space increasingly looks like it will extend far beyond its currently slated one-third diminishment in size. A go-slow approach here would simply see Israel continue to make life unsustainable throughout the remaining two-thirds of the Strip, triggering blowback from residents there plus Hamas’s remaining forces, and then progressively over time claim more and more territory as “defensive buffers” and so on.

That could take years and cost Israel far more than just the state’s blood and treasure. It could end up isolating Israel to a dangerous degree.

Better to go for broke now for all sorts of time-limited reasons. Isolation-wise, if you’re in for the penny, why not take the pounding?

A constellation of developments and situations worth exploiting:

• Netanyahu remains in power, but who knows when Israel will get another leader like him willing to take this route?

• Israel’s public support in the US is ebbing along generational lines, meaning it’s all bad from here on out, so it’s crucial to get this done while the Israel-friendly Boomers still rule and there are sufficient numbers of White Christians (who just slipped into majority-minority status at 43%) to support the effort.

• Iran is hurting bad, but, the longer this drags on in Israel, giving Tehran every reason to pursue aggression, the more likely it is that Iran picks up support throughout the Arab world and beyond (say, from a Russia likewise freed up by Trump’s return).

• Trump is back in power and has an almost unlimited freedom of action for the next two years. Trump has promised all sorts of magical outcomes regarding Ukraine and Israel, so Jerusalem should maximally leverage his willingness to go just about anywhere so as to be perceived as successful and “delivering the goods.”

• The Saudis and Emiratis are already all-in on their embrace of a post-energy future that sees their money drive all manner of developments throughout the region and extending into Africa. They are ready enough to move on, sacrificing the never-loved Palestinians in the process (their timid responses, as of late, strike me as clear evidence). They likewise want to craft a strategic reality where Asia (China, India, etc.) depends on them energy-wise for the foreseeable future while America backs them explicitly in the military realm (defense treaties) vis-a-vis troublesome Iran. They know full well that the latter part can only happen in concert with their accommodating Israel in a big way.

In sum, now is the time when the getting is good for Israel — whatever the short-term blowback and pain. There will never be a better opportunity, confluence of events, and sufficiently shifty relations among the world’s superpowers to stomach this admittedly shocking development.

Besides the historical claims (irredentism of the highest, most “sacred” order), Israel has long argued that controlling Gaza and the West Bank is essential for Israel's national security. The territories provide strategic depth against potential military threats from neighboring countries and militant groups, particularly given the proximity of major Israeli cities to these areas.

Trump has has previously indicated a willingness to endorse Israeli sovereignty over settlements in the West Bank. Per CNN:

The Prime Minister’s Office is yet to comment on Smotrich’s order. However, earlier Monday, Gideon Sa’ar, Israel’s new foreign minister, told a press briefing that the government had made no decision on the issue of annexation as yet, but noted it had been discussed during Donald Trump’s first term as US president and added that “if it will be relevant it will be discussed again with our friends in Washington.”

The fear is naturally that future U.S. administrations may not be as supportive.

Netanyahu clings to power based on his alliance with far-right groups that recognize their present control over him can disappear in a political heartbeat. As such, he and his government are under great domestic pressure to fulfill promises made to their constituents regarding settlement expansion and annexation.

The two-state solution has never seemed more unlikely. As settlement expansion continues and Palestinian areas become increasingly fragmented, many Israelis argue that the opportunity for that outcome has been rendered moot.

More broadly, there is the demographic “bomb” threat faced by Israel within its borders. Recent demographic analyses indicate that Arabs are on the verge of outnumbering Jews in Israel and the occupied territories.

Today there are roughly 7.5m Arab Israelis and Palestinians, just surpassing the total of Jews (and others). The demographic trajectory is clear: Israel’s Arab population is growing at a faster rate due to higher birth rates — roughly twice that of Jewish Israelis. By mid-century, Jews in Israel could be outnumbered to the tune of two million in a total population of 22m.

There are likewise long-term climate change issues for Israel, particularly centered on water supplies in areas like the Jordan Valley. The Jordan River is suffering a declining flow, making it crucial that Israel gain greater control over that resource for both agricultural and domestic use.

Finally, there are Israel’s sunk costs on settlement infrastructure, coupled with a significant settler population ready to extend Jewish control over lands that, in their telling, were promised to them by God.