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Thomas PM Barnett's avatar

From the book:

PAGES 11-12

In the post–Cold War era, world leaders cooperatively responded to such

system-perturbing shocks as the 9/11 terrorist strikes and the 2008 financial

meltdown. When global institutions originally built to prevent a rerun of the

Great Depression and WWII proved outdated and unwieldy, these leaders

updated and reinvented them (e.g., expanding the Group of Seven [G7] into

the G20), allowing globalization to march on in its wealth-creating whirlwind.

But something emerged in the Great Recession to arrest that momentum.

Our world’s stabilizing pillar, its now-majority middle class, started fearing for

their existence. Their keen suspicion of being hollowed while the rich became

grotesquely wealthier drained our collective optimism. In America, this trig-

gered a tsunami of angry voters flooding the “swamp” with change elections

every two years.

Who runs for public office under such conditions? Primarily demagogues

whose boundless narcissism and existential fearmongering fuel their self-image

as celebrity saviors combatting inhuman opponents. As a result, America

presently endures its worst cohort of political leaders since its late-nineteenth-

century Gilded Age, or at least last century’s Roaring Twenties.

Both periods witnessed technological and economic advances arriving far

faster than security and political adaptations, resulting in the widespread sense

of events spinning out of control. In both instances, society’s greatest talent

flocked to the private sector, while public service was popularly disparaged.

Both tumultuous eras eventually triggered lengthy bouts of progressive reforms

by which rigged economic landscapes were aggressively regraded into less

uneven playing fields, in turn replenishing America’s social optimism and polit-

ical stability. Finally, each national correction was spearheaded by a New York

blue blood from the same extended family—first Theodore and then Franklin

Roosevelt. Both presidents successfully recast public service as a noble pursuit.

Today’s angry America has reached the same historical tipping point.

Our nation needs a new type of political leadership based on a new political

science, one that decodes globalization by leveraging interdisciplinary knowl-

edge, data analytics, and human cognition–augmenting artificial intelligence

(AI). We need to apply to socioeconomic and political issues the same sort of

big data effort that our natural and data scientists now apply to a host of medical

and environmental challenges. We have the technology; we just need to stop

vilifying science and scientists.

That new political science must begin with the question, How does today’s

America surmount the wickedly complex problems triggered by globalization’s

success?

These challenges are not insurmountable. Considering how far humanity

has advanced these past seven decades, they are our best problems yet.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

PAGE 109

If history is any guide, the rise of a global-majority middle class inevitably ushers in a progressive period of political, economic, and social reform not

unlike what Europe and America undertook when their middle-class popu-

lations ascended a century ago. Recall: America threaded that needle far bet-

ter with its two Roosevelts (Republican Theodore, Democrat Franklin) than

Europe did with its murderous dictators, genocidal ideologies, and world wars.

America cannot hope to globally champion our middle-class-centric

approach to progressive reform if we ourselves are lost to generational conflict

between old and young—particularly over our response (or lack thereof) to cli-

mate change. The danger we face, per Jackson and Howe, is that Americans are

“no longer regarded as progressive advocates for the future of all peoples, but

rather as mere elder defenders of their own privileged hegemony.”

+++++++++++++++++++++++

page 143

America now endures one of those technological accelerations where too

few winners are created amidst too many losers. Our historic answer for sky-

rocketing income inequality has been progressive reform that regrades the

economy into a more level playing field between employers and employees (con-

sider, for example, the recent resurgence of unions). We need another Roos-

evelt to emerge, but given the nasty state of American politics, such progressive

populism is hard to execute. Joe Biden’s attempt to cast himself as the second

coming of FDR has been fought at every turn by a know-nothing, do-nothing

Republican Party laser-focused on pointless culture wars.

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Mike Harmanos's avatar

Tell us more about this Second Progressive Era. If they want to rewind, I’m sure others want to fast forward to that part

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