Optimism wins because pessimism is not in the US nature

In historical terms, Trump is the talented-but-weird outliar

Most political commentators start with the 1948 presidential election to describe the modern political era of campaigning, and so I will here. That’s a total of 19 elections.

Let’s review those 19 and determine, with a bit of searching, who was the more optimistic candidate of the pair in each election.

• Truman over Dewey 1948: Harry was all whistle-stop touring and Dewey was all careful reserve, hence Truman projected more optimism about the future.

• Eisenhower over Stevenson 1952: “I like IKE” seals that one, along with Adlai’s dry, academic demeanor.

• Eisenhower over Stevenson 1956: rinse and repeat.

• Kennedy over Nixon 1960: the classic future-guy versus the defender of the old order (then).

• Johnson over Goldwater 1964: the infamous nuclear bomb “Daisy” commercial stoking fear of Barry’s aggressive nature when it came to the commies.

• Nixon over Humphrey 1968: by then Nixon was the optimism-projecting outsider while poor Hubert had to defend Vietnam.

• Nixon over McGovern 1972: Tricky Dick ran a relatively optimistic campaign in contrast to the great strife within the Dem party.

• Carter over Ford 1976: Ford was the conflicted, nasty past (Nixon pardon) and Carter was all smiles.

• Reagan over Carter 1980: Reagan runs with Let’s Make America Great Again while Carter bemoans a national malaise.

• Reagan over Mondale 1984: Ronnie’s “Morning in America” seals it.

• Bush over Dukakis 1988: “kindler and gentler” wins the day.

• Clinton over Bush 1992: “Don’t stop thinking about tomorrow” … come on!

• Clinton over Dole 1996: Bob as an almost comical doom-and-gloomer

• Bush over Gore 2000: Bush was upbeat the “guy to have a beer with” and Gore was the stern school marm.

• Bush over Kerry 2004: John’s antiwar past/present didn’t go over well that year, while Bush pushed a positive future image.

• Obama over McCain 2008: “Hope” is everything.

• Obama over Romney 2012: Barack was just impossible to beat on this score.

• Trump over Clinton 2016: HERE IS THE OUTLIAR THAT SHOCKS

• Biden over Trump 2020: Biden is clearly the return to normality, which was optimism personified amidst a chaotic pandemic.

Which brings us to smiling, laughing Kamala and glowering, furious Trump (who never laughs, have you noticed?). Harris has quickly and cleverly made this the past versus the future, which it most definitely is. Trump continues the Boomer Reign of Polarization while Harris would be a step into Gen X and whatever that’s going to be.

But here’s the thing: your sense of optimism today seems as much a matter of how you view society as how you view the economy. Under normal circumstances, Harris wins easily because the economy is doing well/better.

But is it?

There’s that sense of the economy working for some but not enough — a remaking/reduction of the middle class dream.

That sense of a disturbing economic makeover (ultra-rich running things) dovetails with the general (and mostly White) anxiety over the nation’s ongoing racial makeover (Aren’t the rich globalists engineering all this?), with the “working, blue-collar” middle class representing Whites in their subtle but steady diminishment within our economy/polity.

Those are powerful emotions: This is NOT the America I grew up in!

Here, despite his huge pessimism, Trump represents the dream of turning back time to an era in which powerful straight White men ruled all.

I know that time. I grew up in it. It shaped me considerably.

We live in an entirely different America today, and it is disorienting even to me, someone keening self-aware and accepting of what is driving that change in my world and my nuclear family.

Jim Nuttle illustration from “America’s New Map”

Harris clearly reflects this unfolding American future while Trump is an attempt to throw everything into reverse (along with Vance to the point of his being scary-creepy about women and babies and cats in general).

One side looks at this future and sees democracy working while the other side sees democracy failing and needing to be superseded by something Whiter, more Christian, and more openly nationalistic — all hallmarks of America’s past but not achievable today within democratic means. It can be delayed magnificently (see our Catholic sharia SCOTUS) but it cannot be prevented.

For that inevitable demographic future to be truly prevented, democracy must give way — the stark realization among the MAGA core as boldly advertised by Project 2025.

So, what is Harris to do?

Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota has become the unlikely (can he be any whiter, male, and straight?!) avatar of the solution set:

• Criticize generally (Republicans are getting just palin “weird”)

• Praise specifically (Wouldn’t it be great to have a woman president? Wouldn’t it be great to have our first African American female president? Wouldn’t it be great to have our first Indian American president? Wouldn’t it be great to move past Boomers? and so on)

By going with “weird,” the Dems are laying claim to the inevitability of our social transformation from White-centric to whatever comes next. That whatever-comes-next here at home is basically the same whatever-comes-next global reality represented by the Rise of the Rest (Zakaria’s polite take on a non-White-dominated world future). One can be optimistic about that or one can be doom-and-gloom.

Trump and MAGA are clearly doom-and-gloom, Harris is just plain positive (“When we fight, we win!”), knowing that the numbers favor her if the optimism motivates sufficiently.

By going with “weird,” the Dems are demystifying this — to many — scary, beyond-White future: this America that must co-evolve with a world originally of our making but one that no longer resembles “us.”

In short, the Dems are embracing inevitabilities with a confident smile while the GOP sees only End Times in any such submission to a history of our purposeful making (which makes the “betrayal” all the worse!). Given the choice, many Republicans are ready today to go back far enough in time to make this all go away. Fundamentalists (particularly religious ones) the world over make this choice every day. When it’s the Amish, who cares? When it’s the “Amish” with AR-15s, it gets very Civil War-ish — you know, all onward (White) Christian soldiers … marching on to war!

The switch from Biden (all defensive) to Harris (all optimism) is a huge break for the Dems — easily the most profound good Uncle Joe did across his entire life.

Does it work?