[POST] Let's make a deal!

The problem of having no permanent interests is that nobody is permanently interested in you

This is a reader-supported publication. I give it all away for free but could really use your support if you want me to keep doing this.

I used to love the old Let’s Make a Deal game show in the 1970s. Monte Hall was the man.

I liked the show because it allowed you to weigh in on the contestants’ decision-making, which was typically couched in this very appealing “would you rather” manner: Are you going to take the $200 patio set or would you rather see what’s behind door number three?

Oh man, Door #3 would beckon like nobody’s business …

Those questions from Hall would always send the studio audience into a tizzy and elicit your own snap judgment from the couch as to whether the contestant should figuratively take the bird in hand or hope for two in the bush.

When the decision played out and we in the audience got to see what the contestant ended up with, the musical cue always let you know the show’s objective judgment: either you got the upbeat show theme with coronets and woodwinds (Good pick!) or you got the slowed, depressing version with trombones and tubas (Loser!).

Watching Trump run around the world like Monte Hall, trying to talk everybody into some snap deal, whether it’s some check-in-the-mail promise or — even more pronouncedly on this current trip — some let’s-cut-a-peace-deal, then it’s you, me, and everyone we know all left to shout out our preferred answers as the stunned counterparties consider their options in real time.

Trump declares a cease-fire between Pakistan and India, seemingly surprising the Indians and … sort of pissing them off. They thought they’d just established this new rule that says, terror strike in India = serious military strike into Pakistan with no fear of nuclear retaliation … you know, the kind of bold new self-declared rule that America is so good at inventing out of thin air when the mood strikes.

But before Modi couldn’t even get his mouth open in reply, Trump had switched subjects and moved on to the next contestant: Vladimir Putin, come on down to Istanbul and let’s play The Price is Right with your host, President Donald J. Trump! [Yes, I am wantonly mixing my gameshow metaphors here]. Trump, like all US presidents, believes that if he can just get so-and-so together in the room with you-know-who … well, then he’ll make a deal happen right on the spot — at least once all the contestants reveal their price picks.

Cease-fire with the Houthis? You bet! What does it actually cover? That’s for us to know and you to find out, global shipping industry!

Direct negotiations with Hamas to get the last alive American hostage out of Gaza? Done, with no apologies to Netanyahu for bypassing him.

But don’t worry, I still see a big beautiful Trump Tower in Gaza by January 2029. Lots of deals to cut between now and then but let’s keep our eyes on that prize!

Hey Iran! You want a nuclear deal right now so I can lift all your sanctions and make you rich and great again? I can do it! Just watch me! Or do you want what’s coming behind Strike Scenario #3. SECDEF, show ’em on Signal what they’ll win with our strike package!

[deep brass only] Waaaaa-waaa-wa-waaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

While you’re thinking Iran, let’s go back to Vlad from Moscow and see if he’s coming to Is-tan-bul for that in-stant-deal!

[Vlad, dressed as a Cossack horseman, nervously scans the audience for a hint as to which way he should gallop …]

It’s all just so frenetic, with the signaling being clear: America is no longer in the business of having permanent interests, permanent allies, or permanent enemies because everything is up for negotiation and deal-making.

Liberating? Sure.

Trump enjoying himself, running the world as he openly claims? Definitely.

Bringing both sides to the negotiating table? That seems to be his speciality.

But closing the actual deal? Not so much, and when they are closed, the pickings seem slim.

No worries! See you next time on the Let’s Make a Deal!

Britain stepped up smartly and cut a nothing-burger deal with Trump on tariffs.

Beijing just showed up and won a 90-day reprieve on tariffs — promising nada in reply even as our gameshow host declared China now “fully” open for US trade. It’s not playing that way in Chinese media, but, no worries as we’re on to the next contestant.

The key point here is that everything and anything is on the table — no matter what our past and present relationships are with you, the contestant. It’s a clean slate in all directions, so just name your price and Trump will make it right. The big thing is to get something on paper so Trump can sign it with his magic Sharpie wand, intoning deal-R-us operatum! And whoosh! A new magical reality is created — as always, extending America’s stunning win streak.

Let the Fox News chyrons roll:

• Everybody kissing America’s ass

• Everyone calling us up

• Every nation seeking a deal

• America winning every transaction.

Flood the zone, baby, and no one will notice if none of his slap shots actually score.

The problem with such signaling? If you have no permanent interests or friends or enemies today, then any deal you cut now isn’t worth the paper his signature is Sharpied on, because he can always change his mind, cut a better deal, or just renege (Trump’s forever go-to business move: I said I’d pay you? Try and make me!).

Without representing something permanent and real and trusted, Trump risks being played by the world that has already cracked the man’s code:

• He’ll make some crazy threat.

• You just stare at him incomprehensibly.

• He’ll back off that threat.

• You’ll offer some meaningless give or repackage some already planned investment.

• He’ll immediately agree so long as you present him with the giant cardboard check on the spot, or throw in a luxury jet, or break out the camels, or walk him majestically through your “perfecto” marble palace.

• And then, after showering you with public love, he’ll move on to his next contestant and you can forget about the whole deal … until he comes back around to your row next show.

Rinse and repeat. Easy peasy.

In fact, if you’re smart enough and eager enough in your handling of the POTUS advance team (also tall men named Trump), you can get all your deals done in advance so that the actual POTUS visit is purely performative.

Do I have a problem with US CEOs accompanying Trump on these trips, looking to lock-in deals? No, I do not. Clinton was a master at this and we all liked it back then.

Do I have a problem with the self-dealing? Hard not to, as there Trump makes the Clintons look like total wannabes when it comes to self-enrichment.

But I could live with all that if the deal-making on trade and security was as transformational as it could be — under the right circumstances and right follow-through.

Problem is, that’s not Trump’s forte. He doesn’t do follow-through. He signs the piece of paper and declares the win that instant. Let the minions follow through, if they can.

The problem is, the minions can’t follow through, because no counterparty in their right mind believes anything any of these people say or do, knowing full well that if Trump changes his mind at 3am tomorrow, then this is all null and void.

The Economist lays out its criticism along similar lines:

The problem is that after stoking crises, Mr Trump seldom succeeds in solving them. The deals he has notched up are narrow …

His deals may also prove transient, because fundamental disagreements are unresolved. He is often willing to broker talks, rarely to act as a guarantor or enforcer …

Mr Trump’s clumsy negotiating is storing up trouble ahead … After backing down on his trade war, Mr Trump mumbled about an opportunity for “unification” with China, a remark the administration hastily retracted but which spooked Taiwan.

Mr Trump’s limits as a dealmaker have long-term consequences. One is to embed a risk premium into economic decision-making, discouraging investment …

Those same doubts affect diplomacy. The world leaders who flatter Mr Trump in public are quietly making plans to be let down by him. His tactic of “escalate, then negotiate” will have diminishing returns as other countries conclude America is bluffing. Some of his dealmaking will succeed, but at the expense of fomenting broad and long-lasting instability. America and the world deserve a better deal than that.

It’s true that Trump 2.0 is MAGA unbound, thanks to a compliant Congress.

It’s also true that we all know Trump’s shtick by now, so the shock and awe factor wears down.

But what’s most true — and most damaging — to Trump’s ambitions (some of which are entirely laudable) is that the world’s great powers all now know how to play him.

A football analogy: Aaron Rodgers was, in his prime, unstoppable and the most talented QB (measured by arm) in history. Whatever you threw at him, he could manage with ease. Moreover, he could flood your mental zone whenever he wanted to, getting free plays in reply as your players couldn’t tell if they were coming or going off the field.

He was the master of a certain chaos, so much so that you never dared blitz him because then he’d go completely off the charts with some school-yard magic that left you mouths dangling open in amazement.

Is that legal? Can he do that?

All of this was true until he got old enough and set-enough in his ways. Once that happened, all his tricks were known, and, not only were they diagnosable pre-snap, you could also basically determine his choices by your pre-snap actions, knowing full well if you did this or that, then Rodgers — a total creature of habit — would respond accordingly. You want him to pass, show this! You want him to hand-off, show that! Pretty soon you’re playing the player and calling the plays yourself. Yes, he might end up with great stats, but you’d win the game.

That’s where Trump is now: he’s been figured out and already opposing teams are playing to time him out.

And that’s too bad, because this was a unique moment for him and the nation, and it could have resulted in so much better and truly transformative change instead of the bread and circuses we’ve been given.

---

---