[POST] Myth-busting the "axis of autocracies", "quartet of chaos," "deadly quartet" ... aka, CRINK
What a load of threat-inflated garbage
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The more fearsome alliance of the 21st century, or so we were told.
China!
Plus Russia!
Plus Iran!
Plus North Korea!
C-R-I-NK! CRINK! CRINK! CRINK!
The Axis of Upheaval!
The most cohesive anti-US bloc since the Cold War!
United by a growing belief that their moment is coming!
Reshaping the global balance of power!
If that doesn’t call for a trillion dollar US defense budget, then I don’t know what does!
Clearly, they’ll all come to each other’s rescue in a heartbeat, because that what axis members do, as I recall.
Let’s examine the first instance: Russia invades Ukraine! Iran sends drones, North Korea sends troops! China buys oil at a discount!
Their combined efforts swiftly led to … Russia expanding, over two bloody years, its control of Ukrainian territory from the original 19% grabbed right off the bat to a stunning 20% today — all at the marginal cost of roughly a quarter-million Russian battle deaths (or basically, coming up on what the US lost in combat in WWII — 290k).
To say the least, a wildly impressive effort where the insertion of North Korean troops was decisive in … some way that escapes description at this time but is certain to be covered in future breathless military histories of the Battle for Kursk (2025 edition).
At this rate, Russia will conquer all of Ukraine in … how long?
At the current rates of advance and loss, the Russians would capture the rest of Ukraine in the year 2256 at the cost of 101 million casualties. The current population of Russia is 144 million.
That pretty much matches what we heard from Western military experts just before the war about how long it would take before Kyiv surrendered.
But wait, there’s more!
Iran, in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, cried havoc and let loose its own dogs of war known as the Axis of Resistance to destroy the state of Israel.
Was this not the wider regional war we’ve heard so much about?
Except Israel struck first and killed most of the Hamas leadership and sent that militia reeling.
Then it paged and killed most of the Hezbollah leadership and sent that militia reeling.
Then it pounded the Yemen Houthis, with significant US assistance, and we see that, according to US Central Command, ballistic missile launches by the Houthis have dropped by more than two-thirds and drone attacks have decreased by more than 50% since the start of the intensified campaign in March 2025.
So, clearly, Iran’s mini-Axis of Evil collection is proving its immense worth (i.e., all those billions of dollars in military aid from Iran over the years).
Now, Israel is pounding Iran directly, killing much of its key leadership and sending that regime reeling.
And what has been the combined CRINK response?
Crickets chirping …
China has done nothing. Official condemnations and nothing else. There is no evidence of direct Chinese military involvement or arms transfers specifically for the current conflict with Israel. [NOTE: I am still holding off jumping to conclusions on those Chinese cargo flights that “disappear” in Turkmenistan. All we can assume, based on the inferences to-date, is that, if China is helping Iran, it is going magnificently out of its way to hide that fact — and that reticence alone says something about Beijing’s willingness to assist.]
In sum, China’s approach remains cautious at best: it has not committed to any defense alliance or direct intervention, instead focusing on diplomatic, economic, and rhetorical support.
WOWZA!
The CRINK has responded just like we knew they would, with Putin suggesting diplomacy and Pyongyang publicly demanding … nothing, actually.
I mean, with such an incredible combined show of force, China just has to know that, when it finally takes down Taiwan, it’ll be backed up by the most impressive anti-US military bloc since … the Cold War!
US intelligence assessments highlight that the threat from CRINK is not solely about battlefield success or failure in any single conflict.
You don’t say, mutters Tom as he pulls on his chin.
I mean, why the hell should any of that real-world evidence matter when the theory here is so sound?
Instead, we are told, this evolving, complex and comprehensive threat is really about the broader strategic challenge posed by these states deepening their cooperation to circumvent Western power, develop advanced technologies, and undermine US influence globally through both conventional and unconventional means. The complexity and potential for escalation—especially if conflicts were to draw in multiple CRINK members (already witnessed in Ukraine, mind you) … these are seen by Western hawks as key strategic risks … so, you know …, pay no attention to the crappy outcomes of these current wars, because CRINK is obviously ascendant despite these frivolous ass-kickings levied by Ukraine and Israel — two military superpowers without fear.
I mean, how much proof do we need to adequately inflate this existential threat to world order?
Well then, let me join the chorus and proclaim the world is millimeters away from World War III!
At least that’s what the Crouching Bear is screaming right now.
Except nobody seems to be joining the fight. Indeed, the only variable out there for now is whether or not Trump will okay the use of the bunker-busting bombs that only the US can deliver.
Strangely enough, I’ve yet to hear a threat from China or Russia or North Korea that, if the US were to do so, they’d retaliate with their own nuclear strikes against the US homeland.
I mean, that would certainly fit the description of the Axis of Aggressors, right?
But nope … still waiting for that one.
But there are follow-on effects almost as bad as WWIII, yes?
I mean, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine torpedoed the global economy … sort of.
And then there’s the imminent “wider regional war” in the Persian Gulf, with the Saudis and “little Sparta” Qatar and UAE and Egypt all … sitting on the sidelines, along with Hezbollah … and really the entirety of the Arab world, doing … what exactly"?.
Hmm.
Let’s be clear here: NO Arab power is currently coming to Iran’s military rescue in its war with Israel. Instead, the prevailing Arab response has been one of condemnation of Israeli strikes on Iran, calls for de-escalation, and diplomatic outreach—but no direct or material support for Iran.
So, no wider regional war, no superpower showdown, no World War III. Instead, just the latest in a series of beatdowns issued by Israel.
Trump is sort of in charge here, meaning Israel declared this war and pulls us in automatically, so … no, he wasn’t really in charge of that part. But now he is sort of in-charge over this bunker-buster decision.
Here’s Ted Knight playing Netanyahu:
Does the US trigger some bigger fight by trying to take out Iran’s nuclear capacity to a fulsome degree (understanding there is some legit doubt there that it can be done — even with these special bombs)?
I’m not seeing anyone eager to do so. Why? Because such an intervention would earn them close to nothing — other than their own beat-down.
Israel took out Iraq’s nuclear facilities in 1981 and Syria’s in 2007.
And you know what happened after each strike?
Big nothing.
So, this time around the US delivers the specific blow. Think Israel is going to be seriously targeted by some other nation with the US involved if those previous efforts by Israel alone elicited no such response?
I don’t.
So, no, I don’t see a transformation of the Middle East here — not in this fight alone, no.
Now, if the Iranian regime collapses …? Then yeah.
So, what I see is not that much risk in trying, and a potentially huge payoff if the bunker-busters do their trick and trigger something bigger. Or, hell, if all they do is set back Iran’s program for the foreseeable future — as in, message delivered.
And that train of thought means, if I am Trump, I say yes.
The opportunity is just too big to pass up, and America, as a rule, always takes advantage of such windows when they are opened.
To sum up: minimal downside, high upside, rare opportunity.
So I say, go for it.
