[POST] Superpower policing

Modeled behavior is everything

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Following Trump’s decision to follow Israel’s lead on Iran by directly bombing its nuclear sites, we are naturally inundated with all manner of hyperbolic analysis — much of it silly and unhelpful and too reflexively anti-Trump.

Trump did not “gamble” his entire presidency on this strike. There is no requirement to follow this up with more strikes, and we know full well that Iran has signaled throughout to Israel and the US that it seeks an off-ramp from a fight it cannot win.

America has not declared war on Iran’s government or its people or the nation writ large. Vance’s bit about us warring only against Iran’s nuclear program actually applies.

There will be no invasion, no post-anything occupation, and none of the traditional hallmarks of an actual war.

We have not entered any inescapable spiral. Israel’s ongoing beat-down gave us an opportunity and we took it — nothing more.

Iran will retaliate because they have to, but it will be a rather pathetic effort, because the regime is still in the process of getting further beat down by Israel, which has every incentive to keep its foot on the pedal.

Did Israel force the issue? Sure. But all the necessary boxes were long ago checked on this one. Nobody wants to see Iran with the bomb, and so there will be minimal pushback on the US strike.

This action will not “stain” America’s reputation for years/decades. It will not “poison” our relations with the region/Islam/Arab world for “generations,” any more than the long-forgotten Abu Ghraib scandal did.

Nor does this strike “change everything” or put us on an “unknown path” — much less “chaos.”

This action falls very much within the lines we established long ago in the 1990s regarding our international policing function. Frankly, there is more relief in allied capitals than angst — at least among the non-hysterics.

MAGA will not be riven by this strike. They will line up as they always do. Trump knows that, which is why he could actually go all “statesman” like on this one.

This will not “define” Trump 2.0. It won’t even define 2025.

Nobody is coming to Iran’s rescue and, so, its retaliation — such as it is — will only extend Iran’s beatdown and perhaps earn more visits from our B-2s and boomers. Israel is ready, willing, and able to go all-day and all-night on this golden opportunity, so our lift will be minimal and episodic.

America didn’t start or ask for any of this, but Iran sure did and the world knows it — hence Tehran’s stunning isolation.

The world is overwhelmingly fine with Israel arising as the region’s military hegemon. Ask yourself: what’s the alternative? America in the clear lead with lots of troops on the ground? Ain’t happening in Iran. Iran continuing its non-stop mischief across the region with its proxies? The Saudis somehow stepping up? Turkey sticking its nose in? Maybe Russia? Or China?

Nope, none of these alternatives appeal, so Israel it is. America should just be happy that it’s our client state taking charge and not somebody else’s.

The Middle East is on the cusp of a bright future, requiring only Iran’s further diminishment/deconstruction and the death of that never-to-be-achieved two-state solution in Israel. Both are now well underway because Israel decided it was time to build its preferred future, and Hamas was reckless enough to give them all the cover they needed to proceed.

A Middle East ruled by Israeli muscle/tech and PG monarchies’ money/tech is a perfectly reasonable pathway forward. If you have something better in mind, please speak up now because that train is leaving the station.

There will, of course, be prices to be paid, and I’m not just talking our weathering whatever Iran can still throw at us while Israel continues to choke-out the regime.

By striking Iran like that, the US basically “blesses” similar actions by other legit superpowers like Russia (Ukraine), China (Taiwan), and India (Pakistan). Yes, all of them will issue their perfunctory condemnations, but they will also take note — yet again — of our modeled behavior, and we will have to live with that.

But, make no mistake, that die was cast long ago by us and there’s no turning back. Throwing one more log on that fire doesn’t change its smoke signals: superpowers do what they must within their various spheres of influence. That reality is part and parcel of the multipolarity we long sought by spreading our economic ruleset (globalization) across the planet. We now live in a world of at least five superpowers and they all get a vote and a say and retain the right to do what they must when they feel threatened — or, quite frankly, see an opportunity they simply cannot pass up (like the US this time with Iran and — oh man! — was that payback decades in the making).

Wider rule-sets still apply, otherwise Moscow would have nuked Kyiv long ago, and Israel would have dropped one on Fordo long before we dropped our bunker-busters. All of us superpowers have quite patiently stood by as Israel has executed its sequential beat-downs of the Axis of Resistance and now Iran itself. Nobody is losing it, or freaking out. They just want it brought to some satisfactory conclusion.

So, no, the world is not spinning out of control. Hell, the Middle East is not spinning out of control, nor is this missile/drone war between Israel and Iran. It’s all unfolded quite methodically and predictably (often with actions announced in advance, which is convenient for all). Sure, Trump constantly says one thing and then does another. What else is new? Whether he’s chickening out or nutting up, we can all trust Trump to remain Trump for a solid hour or two before morphing into something else.

Let me take you back to 7 October 2023. That horror show shocked the world and called Israel’s continued existence into question. Iran seemed ascendant. The PG monarchies were freaking out. America feared some deep military involvement. The world dreaded the “wider regional war.” Nobody wanted to see this escalate into superpower showdowns … dare I say, even trigger World War III!

Now fast forward to today: Israel is stronger than ever. Iran is barely holding it together. No Arab power is attacking Israel — none. The Axis of Resistance barely has a pulse, with the all-powerful Tusken Raiders (Sand People/Houthis) now in the pole position — by default. Gaza is being erased. Hezbollah is sidelined. Assad is gone in Syria. Iran’s “ring of fire” around Israel has been extinguished. The PG monarchies are splurging on investments far beyond the region, which they seek to transform into this AI center of gravity in the global economy.

Spot Tehran’s preferred future in any of that? Because I can’t.

These are all positive developments, factoring in Israel’s clear sin of ethnic cleansing in Gaza. Because, if that’s the sole permanent cost as the region moves beyond its past to a better future, then it is a bargain by world historical standards. The Arab world had decades to fix the Palestine problem and systematically passed on doing so, so it’s clear that the region can and will move on beyond that admittedly agonizing tragedy.

Meanwhile, I look back to 7 October 2023 and I can’t believe how well everything has turned out since — and at such low (and predicable) cost to both the region and the world. And now we see Israel body-punching Iran — keeping it on the ropes with its gloves in front of its face, hoping the bell will ring soon.

Will there be blowback? Sure. But it will come almost exclusively from an isolated, abandoned, unloved Iranian regime that the world would gladly see gone. So, no, this fight won’t spin out of control because Israel is in firm control and no superpowers are challenging its right to set things right in its now-clear sphere of influence.

America backs Israel because America is done trying to play that role all by its lonesome from afar.

Judging by outcomes to-date, I would have to say Israel is doing a bang-up job in every sense of that phrase.

You will read many scary, hyperbolic and even hysterical analyses in the days and weeks and months ahead. And, yes, Trump, depending on Iran’s desperation to socialize the war among superpowers, may well be forced into multiple rounds of strikes against the Iranian regime.

But, have no fear — just suitable concern with a keen eye for the diplomatic solutions to be ultimately pursued.

This is all solid progress toward a better Middle East, a future that was never going to be willed into existence through mere diplomacy — not so long as the mullahs still rule Tehran.

When all is said and done, we’ll look back at this period and — I truly suspect — we’ll be just fine with Trump’s performance. In many ways, and loose cannon that he is, Trump is the right man for the job this time around.

Indeed, the irony of Trump preaching to the region on the virtues of economic development and trade and investment connectivity with the global economy is oh so globalist, is it not?

It just goes to show you how strong this world order we built truly is.

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