[POST] Trump's win-now strategy will only grow more extreme
Inviting all manner of undesirable counter-programming
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Trump is the ultimate in zero-sum calculators, not just in viewing every relationship and transaction as win/lose propositions in the here-and-now but likewise in his tendency to zero-sum the future relative to the present. This profound win-now requirement leads to a lot of false placating by counterparties just to calm him down (Let’s just through this summit without him freaking out!). The actual gives tend to be symbolic, designed to placate the man and his ego until some other shiny-object issue grabs his attention and he runs over there to claim immediate victory!
The recent NATO summit displayed this dynamic in spades:
You want a piece of paper that says NATO countries will spend this percentage of GDP on defense by six years after Trump’s out of office? Where can I sign so we can end this summit before something truly stupid happens?
Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill reflects this mindset: his strong drive to secure this legislative victory before the 4th of July, even if that means postponing a host of difficult policy and fiscal questions (i.e., the long-term fiscal impact of the tax cuts and spending reductions that combine to tack on more than $3T in national debt over the next ten years). Those long-term consequences are mere abstractions in Trump’s mind but we will all live with them in very immediate ways — especially the Millennials and Gen Zs.
Trump’s approach to Iran reflects this instinct to an almost comical degree in the administration’s firm refusal to describe the recent air strikes as any short of the greatest military feat in human history.
Trump is the greatest game over man! character ever to inhabit the White House, and the closer the actual outcome comes to a de facto loss or failure, the more vehement he is about claiming the most fantastical victory known to man!
None of this is new, of course: Trump wears his emotions on his sleeves and can’t go for any stretch of time in any crisis situation without disclosing his most intense desires in a tweet.
Trump wants his Everlasting Gobstopper and he wants it now!
So, for any sharp counterparty, it’s just a matter of generating those Gobstoppers in sequence in an effort to time him out.
In the first term, the “adults in the room” were sufficient to curb Trump’s wackiest instincts, but this time around they do not exist — as evidenced by those weirdo cabinet meetings where everyone does their own impression of being a Kim Jong Un-style ass-kisser.
Trump’s win-now requirement thus earns him Potemkin Village "wins.”
In politics and economics, a Potemkin Village is a construction (literal or figurative) whose purpose is to provide an external façade to a situation, to make people believe that the situation is better than it actually is. The term comes from stories of a fake portable village built by Grigory Potemkin, a field marshal and former lover of [Russian] Empress Catherine II, solely to impress the Empress during her journey to Crimea in 1787.
In short, when a leader is THAT eager for quick, visible victories, savvy negotiators can offer superficial concessions or orchestrate symbolic deals that look impressive but lack real substance or lasting benefit — a good summation of Trump’s likely historical legacy.
We’ve all watched foreign leaders stage grand ceremonies, sign vague agreements, and offer grotesque displays of flattery, knowing that these gestures will be touted as “historic wins” by Trump, even if the underlying issues remain unresolved (see, for example, the first-term North Korea summits, recent trade “deals” with China and the UK, ongoing efforts to solve Gaza and Ukraine in “days”).
Point being, these counterparties can act in this duplicitous manner, knowing full well that the appearance of success is far more important to Trump than the details.
Remember North Korea’s “total denuclearization”? That stuffed head was later joined on the Wall of Success by the “total obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear program.
ATLANTIC: The One-and-Done Doctrine; The president has railed against America’s “endless wars.” But he’s found a style of attack that he likes.
Man, it just boggles the mind to think about what Trump’s presidential museum will actually claim. And with Vance acting as junior-gaslighter-in-chief, it’s clear that the GOP plans to run in 2028 on this magical record — this, the greatest period in American history.
Along those lines, it will be both fascinating and frightening to witness the extent to which Trump sells this golden age image across our lengthy observation next year of America’s 250th birthday — as that will be the administration’s primary venue to sell voters on continuing all-Republican rule past the midterms just a few months later.
Trump is actively positioning the upcoming national celebration as both a showcase of his administration’s achievements and a signal of what he describes as a new era of American greatness. The official kickoff event, set for the Iowa State Fairgrounds on July 3rd, 2025, is being billed as the launch of a dynamic, year-long commemoration culminating on July 4th, 2026.
Nobody outpaces my admiration for what this country has achieved, and yet I am sure to find myself choking on the storylines Trump will be pushing these next twelve months — the figurative and literal white-washing of our history and the dangerous “otherizing” of anyone who fails to salute the Great Leader.
If you thought SECDEF Hegseth’s recent presser performance was stomach-churning, I fear we ain’t seen nothing yet.
To deny Trump’s greatness will be cast as denying America’s greatness and thus intertwining any hatred of Trump with hatred of America. That’s not the new part; the new part is the year-long celebration — or one big invitation to Americans to push for and against this imagery and, sad to say, outright propaganda. We will witness a lot of save our history campaigns from the alt-Right.
Trump’s need to conflate his personal greatness with that of America — a sort of I-am-the-state requirement — will trigger a great deal of political violence over what should have been a truly unifying national celebration. There will be this the-whole-world-is-watching dynamic that will supercharge moment after moment in venue after venue, attracting all manner of extremists dead-set on making their point in the most profoundly disturbing manner possible.
If I am a foreign terrorist group looking to take America down a notch or two, I see the next 12 months as a huge, target-rich opportunity that cannot possibly be passed up.
It is that sort of strategic vibe that leads me to predict things like Iran going all-in on conducting some nuclear test in the nearest-possible near term as a countering humiliation (my Friday post). It also puts me on high alert concerning Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, among others.
Trump’s insatiable need for showcasing his/America’s greatness will naturally trigger huge counter-programming efforts by our enemies and competitors. This dangerous dynamic will go far and beyond mere TACO (Trump always chickens out) considerations. This will be about putting America in its place and Trump will find it unbearable, thus causing him to lash out against all labeled “enemies” — both foreign and domestic.
As a grand strategic thinker whose primary emotional happy-zone is found in my anticipation of positive developments, these next twelve months are going to suck big-time.
