Press coverage of India's Global Business Summit
For the record ... I was pretty damn good!
First, the various articles about my talk:
1) The Economic Times, 12 February 2024:
The Brewing Storm: How global forces will reshape geopolitics
ET Bureau, Last Updated: Feb 11, 2024, 11:41:00 PM IST
Synopsis
Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, principal business strategist at Throughline Inc., discussed the imminent reshaping of the global order due to the convergence of three major factors: demographic transition, climate change, and the rise of a global middle class. He highlighted the impact of climate change, predicting increased temperatures and decreased precipitation in lower latitudes, leading to mass displacement and unprecedented north-south migration.
The global order is set to be reshaped in the coming decades as the interplay of three big structures-demographic transition, climate change and a global middle class-causes immense 'turbulence' and 'disruption', said Dr. Thomas P.M. Barnett, principal business strategist, Throughline Inc. on Saturday …
2) ET Now, 10 February 2024
‘India's choices will have major impact on future of Asia, Africa’ – Throughline’s Dr Thomas PM Barnett at ET NOW GLOBAL BUSINESS SUMMIT 2024
ET NOW GLOBAL BUSINESS SUMMIT 2024: Addressing the ET Now Global Business Summit 2024, on Saturday, Dr Thomas P. M. Barnett, Principal Business Strategist of Throughline, Inc shared his perspective on scenario planning, exploring the intricate interplay of geopolitical security, climate change, technology, and America's leadership role in the global scenario.
Written by: ET Now Digital, Updated Feb 10, 2024 | 06:15 PM IST
ET NOW GLOBAL BUSINESS SUMMIT 2024: Addressing the ET Now Global Business Summit 2024, on Saturday, Dr Thomas P. M. Barnett, Principal Business Strategist of Throughline, Inc shared his perspective on scenario planning, exploring the intricate interplay of geopolitical security, climate change, technology, and America's leadership role in the global scenario.
Speaking at the event, he said that climate change will cause mass migration from the equator towards the poles, creating instability and geopolitical challenges. Barnett further said India's choices will have a major impact on the future of Asia and Africa, and the world needs India to succeed.
Barnett pointed out that climate change will drive unprecedented integration between the North and South, with the South seeking support and the North aiming to limit impact and boost resilience. Barnett said, “On a book I recently published called America's New Map, the story I'm going to tell you begin with US style globalization, an international liberal trade order born of American ambition after the Second World War that dynamic sweeps the planet transforms it, gives us three structure changes this century. First demographic transitions the price of admission to global value chains, climate change - the mother of all externalities and the prize a majority global middle class for the first time in human history. Any one of those three would herald a new era in world affairs all by themselves. Together they are going to trigger north south integration on a scale almost unimaginable from historical perspective. So, that new international economic order is coming whether we want it or not.”
He further said that the superpowers will compete for the loyalty of this growing middle class through "brand wars" and soft power strategies. “We are entering an era about four or five decades when those three big structural changes will play out very dramatically. This zone of turbulence is going to be difficult to imagine and difficult to manage. Scientists tell us that species all over the world have to adapt have to evolve at 10,000 times the normal rate. So, the choice for all species because of climate change is basically adapt move or die. Most species on the planet are going to die in the next four or five decades but people are going to be put on the move like crazy and communities, enterprises, nation and states are going to be forced to evolve nobody who goes in at this end is going to look the same coming out this end and that's especially true for India,” he stated.
Barnett further stated that shifting demographics, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, will create a large global middle class, driving economic growth and consumption. He also said that India's choices will have a major impact on the future of Asia and Africa, and the world needs India to succeed.
“The demographic dividend has for the last several decades enabled the sequential rise of power after power. Each of them believing that they've come up with an economic model that's never been seen before and will allow them supremacy from here on out and each of them are disabused of that vision. So, enjoy your trajectory now because you're going to get old like everybody else,” he said.
Barnett further said that climate change will be a major driver of geopolitical and economic change in the coming decades. China's Belt and Road Initiative aims for network centrality and control over critical infrastructure, potentially leading to Orwellian surveillance, he said.
He stated that India's integration into global markets and its role as Africa's integrator are crucial for regional stability and prosperity.
The US has transitioned from a "market maker" to a more inward-looking and protectionist power, while China's ethical market maker aspirations are challenged by its leadership structure, said the Principal Business Strategist of Throughline. “Chinese play a complex game they want to achieve Network centrality in your 5G network, in your internet of things in your AI of things and their ambition is ultimately to sell you safe City smart city solutions that are really the makings of Orwellian surveillance,” he said.
Bernett advised that US needs to shift from inwardness to collaboration for mutual benefit. India is crucial as the future integrator of Africa, and its path forward will determine the shape of the new world order, he added.
Barnett argues that the US should not try to contain China but instead cooperate with it and India to address global challenges. He also warned against India becoming an ethno-nationalist state and encourages it to embrace a more inclusive and universalistic identity.
[Find the full article here.]
3) Times Now, 10 February 2024
World In Transition: Strategist PM Barnett Foresees Climate-Driven New World Order
As climate change continues to reshape the Earth, Barnett argued that the traditional global axis is undergoing a profound shift. He pointed out that the South is grappling with severe environmental challenges, leading to mass migrations, white the North ironically gains more habitable land.
Diana George, Updated Feb 10, 2024, 04:55 PM IST
Thomas PM Barnett, Principal Strategist at Throughline Inc., delivered a thought-provoking address at the ET Now Global Business Summit held in New Delhi on February 10, offering insights into the significant global transformations anticipated with the advent of a “new international economic order.” Barnett stressed that this transformation is inevitable, triggered by the far-reaching impacts of climate change on the planet.
As climate change continues to reshape Earth, Barnett argued that the traditional global axis is undergoing a profound shift. He pointed out that the South is grappling with severe environmental challenges, leading to mass migrations, while the North ironically gains more habitable land. According to Barnett, addressing this disparity require innovative diplomacy to mitigate conflict and foster sustainable solutions. He emphasized the need for collective action and inclusive partnerships to navigate the imminent geopolitical upheaval.
Barnett underscored that climate change is the most rapid and extensive environmental transformation humanity has ever experienced, causing a strategic shift in the planet’s axis from west-east to south-north. He described a decades-long period of turbulence, constituting a geopolitical reorganization of the world order.
The lower latitudes, termed “Middle Earth” by Barnett, are projected to undergo the harshest environmental transformation. Spanning 30 degrees north and south of the equator and home to over half of the global population, Middle Earth is anticipated to face extreme climatic conditions, resembling today’s Saharan Desert. This transformation will lead to economic unfeasibility, state failure, and an increase in climate refugees, mirroring current situations in areas like the Dry Corridor of Central America.
Barnett predicted that, by mid-century, approximately three billion people in Middle Earth will find their lands rendered close to unlivable. Many of these individuals are expected to migrate northward, resulting in a substantial transfer of land-based wealth to advanced Arctic economies, constituting an unprecedented and uncompensated shift.
He cautioned against attempts to geographically contain the South’s instabilities, emphasizing the need for a more humane and advantageous approach. Barnett proposed new forms of state affiliation to connect the South to the North, modeling the flow of climate refugees and supporting the most resilient populations.
Highlighting the urgency of the situation, Barnett concluded that climate change forces nations to adapt, move, or face dire consequences. He urged nations to evolve and grow collectively, developing new multilateral schemes to address the geopolitical risks posed by climate change.
In the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, Barnett’s address highlighted the imperative for nations, particularly in the Global North, to acknowledge and respond to the profound challenges posed by climate change, fostering international cooperation and adaptation strategies.
[Find the article here.]
Finally …
some photos:
This was me opening with a joke about there being only two types of people in the world: those who can count and those who can’t. As always, it went over like gangbusters!
I call this one: “I got one hand in my pocket and the other one is flickin' a cigarette!”
No idea how I came up with that line.
This one is actually tagged with a two-minute snippet from the brief where I compare the historical trajectories of India, China, and the US. Find it here. Right in this shot I doing my “I’m with stupid” bit (see the tail end of MAGA on-screen) about Trump possibly being re-elected. Just covering all the bases!