Projecting ahead on election-related tumult/violence

My strange "date" with OODAcon right during the election!

"What Kind Of American Are You?"

Just caught the tail-end of the online confab of the OODA Network Monthly Meeting hosted by OODA LLC’s CTO Bob Gourley. You gotta be part of the OODA Network to attend, and Bob recently was kind enough to offer me membership. The featured speaker was the august RAND terrorism expert Brian Jenkins, whom I’ve long admired but never heard speak, so that was cool cool. Plus, Jenkins is 82 and still cranking it, and me, being 62, thinks that is VERY COOL.

The discussion (not mine to share) was about the upcoming election and what could happen/erupt/unfold/etc.

It got me thinking, of course.

Heard plenty of stern and logical warnings, all of which must necessarily be heeded by authorities because who the hell wants to undergo THAT press conference when you’re caught unprepared after all this buildup?

So yeah, we hope for another Y2K nothing-burger but one cannot go into this complacent on ANY level.

And here’s where the conversation was likewise worth attending today: I’m keynoting OODAcon 2024 on 6 Nov in Reston VA (click here to register) and many of us will be meeting for a dinner the night before (Election Day!), meaning these are the people with whom I will be sharing that experience.

Kinda cool when I think about it. As a national security professional, that’s a pretty select party to attend … on that night … in the DC area.

So, again, I was just soaking in the professional wisdom this afternoon during the online meet.

If you want the public-facing version of Jenkins’ work:

• Click here for the report he generated: Addressing the Threat of Political Violence in the 2024 Elections.

• Click here for OODA Loop’s summary of the same, which includes the following key findings:

(1) Election violence could erode confidence in the electoral process itself and lead to widespread cynicism and indifference to the loss of our most fundamental right––the right to elect our own leaders.

(2) The guardrails that governed political behavior in the past have come down; threats, intimidation, and even violent confrontations are accepted as legitimate political discourse; speech that promotes, implies, or justifies violence has become common.

(3) The commercial incentives and algorithms of social media platforms are being exploited to deepen differences and promote extremism.

(4) Threats against public officials at all levels have dramatically increased.

(5) Voters, candidates, election officials, especially frontline poll workers, must be protected.

(6) The 2024 elections are witnessing unprecedented disinformation: hostile foreign influence operations are being conducted by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

(7) Understanding threats to candidates and the electoral system is necessary to thwart plots that could endanger lives or provoke overreaction, retaliation, and escalation. However, the collection and analysis of information on threats are more constrained owing to changes in public perceptions of the threat, political polarization, and distrust of government.

(8) Election officials and law enforcement cannot assume they will have tactical intelligence regarding threats, violence, and other disruptions; in most cases, authorities will be reacting to events, putting the burden on local police.

(9) There is an assumption that after the events of the 2020 election cycle, we are better prepared to deal with possible disruptions during the forthcoming elections––we are not.

(10) Aggressive federal intervention in local violence is likely to be useless and escalatory.

Ever since I started showing the below slide going back now about 15 years, I have annotated it with the general warning that America was heading into a lengthy period of heightened political violence. Just too much change disfavoring too many privileged people for that journey not to feature serious political violence.

Jim Nuttle illustration from “America’s New Map”

I have not been disappointed by, much less disabused of, that projection.

When we got Obama, we got the reaction. And it was scary enough.

Now, when we get Harris (as I believe we will), we’ll get it far worse primarily because this is also about Trump fighting like crazy to stay out of jail, so you know he’s going to light every fuse he can get his hand on across the mother-of-all political meltdowns that will drag out for weeks into months into years.

And yet … despite those realities, I hold out some serious hope for the immediate period surrounding the election.

First, Trump’s inevitable meltdown will be primarily the GOP’s reality to suffer — not the Dems. We just have to hope that, after screwing up three national elections (2020, 2022, 2024) in a row, the GOP as a whole will recognize that Trump is the problem and not the solution. Eventually, he and his ilk will need to be kicked to the curb of history. And yes, I realize there will be plenty of populism surging throughout the GOP even after Trump; it just could be put to better use than his celebrity/brand-enhancement.

Populism triggering progressivism = the way ahead — so, no pain, no progress.

Second, Mark Robinson, GOP candidate for North Carolina’s governorship, is flaming out big-time, like only one of those Not Ready for Primetime MAGA candidates can manage. Trump is highly unlikely to win the presidency without North Carolina, so the early results there will be the first great harbinger of what I increasingly suspect will be a bigger-than-expected national Harris win.

North Carolina, we must remember, will have its advanced votes counted up prior to election day, unlike some other states (my Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and definitely unlike Georgia with its slated hand-count (I still hold up hope there that Gov Kemp intervenes on that latest Trump trick).

Thus, North Carolina may well be the big early indicator of the Trump Disaster.

Now, I recognize that Harris still needs the so-called Blue Wall in total (WI, MI, PA), but those are looking good. Toss North Carolina on that pile and its 286-219 game over.