Questions and Answers #6
An Ask Me Anything post
And we’re off …
Trey White
1) Using a scale of 1-10, do you believe we are descending into a totalitarian idiocracy?
2) Which country do you believe benefits most from our current administration?
1)
I would sadly and gladly give it a 5 right now, meaning it comes down to Trump succeeding enough economically through the midterms to give him a solid four years to lock this stuff down and so drastically atrophy his targets and their functioning that they would be unrecoverable in a follow-on Vance administration that further grinds them down into subservience.
I don’t think Trump can actually win economically enough to survive the midterms, but that’s just reality I’m talking about. His push on the fantasy/PR/media side will be fierce, and his willingness to manipulate the data and analysis within the USG is unlimited in both its ambitions and eagerness to abuse anybody who gets in his way.
So, can Trump keep up this momentum and salesmanship through the midterms? Yes. Yes he can.
Is his base big enough, so that, if Trump can fool enough of the middle for another 18 months regarding “progress” versus “pain,” he might be able to hold onto both houses of Congress? Not inconceivable. And keeping the Senate is entirely plausible. It all depends on how far he is willing to go down the path of bending elections to his will through emergency declarations, investigations, arrests, etc., which is why these early decisions by the Supreme Court can be so crucial in animating the resistance, which, for now, is popping up only sporadically (Go Harvard!) but is sensing a potential wave/bandwagoning effect.
Same logic applies to foreign nations and US universities and law firms: the smart ones are beginning to realize that capitulation only begets bigger demands from Trump, so there’s no good end-point on that pathway, thus, it makes more sense to resist up front and seek to grow your numbers now so that whatever tricks (and there will be many) Trump pulls during the midterms, he can’t “flood” that “zone” effectively, because I am pretty sure he will attempt to do so to maximum effect.
Thus, the resistance must cohere and congeal and network and be ready for yet another “most important election in our lifetimes.”
2)
Hard to choose between Putin and Xi.
For Putin, we’re talking a lifeline on his legacy-defining effort with Ukraine, but we’re talking the same for Xi. Toss in Trump himself and we have three strong men each betting their careers and historical standing on making their countries “great again.”
Trump’s choice is to deleverage the US as a superpower in ways that super-empower both Russia and China, but here’s the difference: Putin is on a road to nowhere. Any fantasies he has about recapturing the Stans are just that — nonsense, because they’re already lost to China.
With Xi, though, Trump gives him a huge opportunity to push hard on the shift-to-domestic-consumption requirement that all economists say China desperately needs. So, for Xi, this is his “don’t throw me in that briar patch” moment when he can dare Trump to do his damnedest on this tariff war because then it gives Xi ideological top cover for a scary (to him) reform that he absolutely needs to happen.
If China comes out of this on the far side rejiggered to rely more on domestic consumption than exports, then it will be truly “rejuvenated” and Xi will have Trump to thank for that.
So, I guess, I’d have to say Xi and China win biggest with Trump. Trump’s picked fight totally plays into Xi’s profound need — just when he needs it most.
John J. Brown
I know it’s only one question per reader…but your AGI vs UBI article got me thinking. Would the transition start if the Republicans in their reconcile budget if the let the higher tax brackets shift back to a higher rate, or will it be another election cycle or two to begin the shift you wrote about?
Betting on the latter path, if gun put to my head.
I just think Trump will seek to buy off as much of the elite and business and Wall Street and the voting public with giveaways — as he can — through the midterms (cooking the books like crazy along the way) and, if successful, doubling down for 2028 and his legacy win with Vance, which will mean everything to him because it will keep him the party kingmaker until he dies.
I see UBI happening in the 2030s at the earliest. We’ll need to see obscene profits (trillions) accumulate with the onset of AGI and then a progressive push to rein all that in, because, if it is not, then every election can be bought by the Tech Bros and we slide into a corporatism that Hollywood has been warning us about going back to the early 1980s (when evil corporations started replacing the Soviets as THE villains).
Jeffrey Itell
How does the Indian subcontinent migrate 1.4 billion people over the hump into Central Asia to escape the death zone? (Is the answer, just feel lucky you live in the Americas?)
Brilliant question or scenario tease, but it makes you wonder, yes? So many driven off the land by some combination of climate change and the extreme tech required to overcome it and keep up agricultural production … where do they all go?
When a civilization undergoes this sort of transformation, it has tended — throughout history — to send vast waves of suddenly-disposable people to other parts of the world looking for better prospects. Think about all the Europeans coming to America as it rose.
The big alternative to Central Asia and Russia (northward) is for India to go big-time on integrating and conquering the African continent in its hoped-for rise. But, with 1.4B people, it’s not necessarily an either-or choice, so, mid-century, I see Indians becoming the movers and shakers in both locations, in concert with PG monarchy sovereign wealth funds.
So I will be tracking that westward connectivity between India and the PG/Africa in coming years. We’re seeing just the beginning trickles now, but, understand, Indians have been moving in numbers to both regions for decades now and are well-established and well-accepted in both — more so than the Chinese, who tend to remain smaller in numbers and enclaved wherever they land (Chinatowns!). You don’t see Indiatowns for that reason and it’s a sign of India’s soft-power strength in that regard.
Andrew Allen
Which industries do you expect will feel impact first from AI, and what time frame do you expect it to rise to crisis-level in our society? Will some countries feel it earlier than others?
Where it will feel most shocking and out in the open is probably in the creative arts, which Hollywood has been anticipating for a while (see last round of union deals). I think the major consultancies and accounting firms will be severely stressed, but they’re always so good at reinvention, so who knows? Beyond that I’m just guessing.
The upside is that advanced economies are going to move ahead on all manner of efficiency drives that will drastically reduce their consumption footprints while achieving “smart networks,” “smart cities,” virtual power plants (VPPs), etc. so a lot of what has been government spending in those realm should logically find some relief as their aging societies stress their fiscal balances all the more.
But take all this with a grain of salt. I sort of understand all this, and I often do my best analysis when that is the case, but I don’t think anyone has a good grip on the sequencing here, other to say that this time around (Industry 4.0), “they” are coming for the white-collar jobs.
I think the countries that will do best are the ones most willing to experiment with changing the shape and dynamics of capitalism, and that does not mean a smaller government role — anything but. So, populist waves aiming to make government more like business? Those dynamics will only set you back, which is what I fear is happening with the US now.
John J. Brown
So does China wait until the reconcile budget is approved and signed, before it dumps Treasury bonds to drive US Government interest rates up?
I have no idea, but that threat is out there as a nuclear option, and it will feel like one for China and Xi because of that “briar patch” option described above — namely, our push to devalue the dollar sort of works with China’s much-needed harsh medicine of switching to reliance on domestic consumption.
Both countries, on both paths, are looking at pain-for-gain. I just see more pain and lengthier pain on our Trumpian pathway than China will encounter in Xi’s pathway.
Xi’s being forced to do what’s right, while Trump is forcing us to do what’s wrong.
I’d still take America’s set of problems and capabilities over China’s, but I wouldn’t bet any money on that for the next 5-10 years.
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