Sunday Cutdown LXIX (13 April 2025)
Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document
1) We got the globalization-impact-on-America story all wrong
CATO: We Have a Bad Globalization Narrative, Not Bad Economics
The great collapse of US manufacturing from the “China Shock” — roughly 5% point drop over a decade, coming on the heels of the “NAFTA Shock” — also about 5% points over roughly a decade.
But looking farther back, Reagan/Bush’s 1980s were a bit worse (steeper decline, whereas the 1970s saw the standard 5 point drop.
From the article:
Economists know for certain that—contra the anti-globalization spin—import competition has not been the only driver of US manufacturing job losses since 1990, or 2001, or 2008. For example, during the Great Recession, the United States lost more than 2 million US manufacturing jobs, but imports collapsed too. Manufacturing jobs have been declining as a share of employment since the 1950s and in nominal terms since 1979. These declines began long before the US signed NAFTA in 1994 or China joined the WTO in 2001.
All in all, it gets hard to blame any one exogenous event over this long stretch of history … other than automation, robots, etc. — i.e., internally derived efficiencies.
Germany, Japan, and many other industrialized nations have also seen manufacturing employment fall over the long term, and even China lost 6 million manufacturing jobs from 2013 to 2019. Why? Productivity gains from new technology and automation, i.e. robots, have reshaped manufacturing worldwide.
We have met the enemy of manufacturing jobs in America and it is us.
What does it all mean?
America has done very well by globalization, but America has not done a good job of distributing those benefits internally, letting the rich clean up way too much and stiffing workers far too much.
Again, the answer to this must be primarily internal: regrading the economic landscape in a Progressive Era not unlike the 1890s-1930s.
Mark my acronyms: AGI = UBI!
That is the answer we will eventually stumble upon.
2) Bad moon rising
POLITICO: RFK Jr. says Deep State ‘is real,’ called FDA employees ‘sock puppet’ of industry; The HHS secretary’s remarks shocked staffers at the Food and Drug Administration, prompting some to walk out.
WAPO: Worries grow over risks to Americans as Trump cuts health, safety agencies
NYT: The Return of the Great American Stomachache
So far, the Kennedy reign in HHS seems to be teeing up a return to the pre-Progressive Era in which Americans were susceptible to all manner of “outbreaks.” I mean, the guy goes out of his way to demonize the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) — to their faces!
Gutting the already thinly-spread food inspection staff at the FDA is a recipe for disasters — the sequel! From the WAPO citation:
The cuts tee up “the next infant formula crisis waiting to happen,” said one current FDA official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisal.
Don’t you just love that phrase that is now so commonplace in virtually all reporting involving Trump 2.0: who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisal?
How the GOP Woke Mob improves upon the Dems’ Woke Mob is beyond me. The former seems devoted to protecting the elite and the government while the latter seems to target the elite and government. I mean, which model strikes you as more angry-populist in tone?
We are kicking price tags down the road. Again from the WAPO piece:
Across the government, President Donald Trump and his allies have sliced billions of dollars and tens of thousands of staff from agencies focused on health and safety, such as the FDA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — cuts that are hollowing out longtime federal offices, shedding expertise, and appear to go against Trump’s repeated campaign promises to make Americans healthier and safer.
From the NYT piece, the “warning lights starting to blink”:
The F.D.A. has already indicated that it will conduct fewer food and drug safety investigations because of its greatly reduced staff. Spending limits imposed on government agencies are also so tight that it’s unclear if the remaining researchers will be able to purchase food to be tested … Many experts now believe food poisoning outbreaks will spread farther and last longer.
If RFK, Jr. is smart, he’ll never hit the road without first packing a nice black suit with black tie.
3) When spectrums collide
ABC: RFK Jr. says HHS will determine the cause of autism by September
GOLDENCARE THERAPY: The Odds Of Having a Child With Autism By Age
The guy Kennedy picks to run his vaccines-cause-autism Red Team effort:
Kennedy has hired David Geier, a man who has repeatedly claimed a link between vaccines and autism, to lead the autism research effort. The hiring of Geier, who the state of Maryland found was practicing medicine on a child without a doctor’s license, was first reported by The Washington Post.
As argued here before, the evidence of rising autism is not really provably there, whereas the frequency of autism diagnoses is clearly rising. The two are not the same thing! The first is an objective reality (here unproven); the second is our choice to respond to this issue-area more vigorously and systematically.
Some of that increase is due to increased awareness and a change in how the disability is diagnosed. For decades, the diagnosis was given only to kids with severe problems communicating or socializing and those with unusual, repetitive behaviors. But around 30 years ago, the term became shorthand for a group of milder, related conditions known as ″autism spectrum disorders.” Milder autism cases are far more common than severe ones.
Like so many other things in life (lead exposure, definition of war, etc.), we’ve grown more ambitious in our responses, lowering the threshold of our definitions so as to be more inclusive and preventative.
That is a good thing, but it does confuse the small minded (e.g., do we have more war if there’s one big war killing 15,000/day or if we have five small wars averaging 50 deaths/day each? You do the math!).
Genetics and environmental exposure are typically cited as the primary underlying causes of autism, with one of the more clear correlations being: the older the parents, the greater the likelihood of autism, because, guess what? Genes age and deteriorate.
People are marrying far later and having kids far later, so more autism, especially if you’re more generous in your definitional thresholds, makes sense. Witch-hunt if you must, but the simplest explanations usually win.
4) Gulag Mar-a-Lago
AXIOS: Migrant detainees should be in El Salvador prison "for the rest of their lives," Noem says
NYT: We Should All Be Very, Very Afraid
The notion that migrants can be disappeared forever in whichever nation’s prison has the prime contract with the USG that month … it does indeed smack of the old Soviet gulag system where Siberia’s vast expanse served as a foreign land.
From the Axios story:
"Nothing in U.S. immigration law, nothing in U.S. criminal law would permit" the detainees to be imprisoned indefinitely without court decisions, said Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council.
"To see Secretary Noem's suggestion that people never convicted of any crime, who have received no process whatsoever [but will be] imprisoned for life at U.S. expense, is something that should make every American who believes in civil liberties angry."
The NYT op-ed argues similarly:
Of all the lawless acts by the Trump administration in its first two and a half months, none are more frightening than its dumping of human beings who have not had their day in court into an infamous maximum-security prison in El Salvador — and then contending that no federal court has the authority to right these brazen wrongs.
In an astounding brief filed in the Supreme Court on Monday, the solicitor general of the United States argued that even when the government concedes that it has mistakenly deported someone to El Salvador and had him imprisoned there, the federal courts are powerless to do anything about it.
As somebody who spent a long time studying the Soviet gulag system, the logic here is similarly arbitrary and entirely un-American, right down to the “quotas must be filled” vigor displayed by US law enforcement. The ONLY value in such gleefully executed sloppiness is to spread terror across the wider citizenry.
Trump 2.0 is very open about that objective.
5) When this government comes for my immigrant children
NYT: What Rights Do Immigrants Have?
Let me skip to my own punchline: my adopted immigrant children are not necessarily safe in the current environment:
United States citizens cannot be deported, even though it sometimes happens by accident, and the first Trump administration expanded attempts to “denaturalize” or strip people of citizenship they had previously obtained. It is unclear to what extent the current administration is pursuing denaturalization.
If a green-card grad student can be deported for an op-ed or a DUI, can one of my adopted daughters be similarly dispatched?
Again, the goal here is to inspire widespread fear among the population — to include any critics of the current government.
[cut to a coffee shop, where the previous clearance-holding ex-government official is confronted by an FBI agent]
Dr. Barnett, if I were you, I’d be a little bit more careful about what I post about the Trump Administration. I mean, I’m sure you wouldn’t want to see any of your adopted daughters be denaturalized … because, you know, we can do that if we really have to.
I know, I know. It’s a complete paranoid fantasy until the NYT news flash hits your iPhone screen later that day.
It happens to the best, it happens to the rest.
6) “Ugly Americans” stay home; foreign tourists stay away
BUSINESS INSIDER: Cornered and confronted: American tourists are facing a scary backlash
USA TODAY: International travel is declining, and it's costing the US: 'It's shaking everything up'
My Chinese daughter living abroad in Europe right now does not report any issues, and yet, that may well be the case because she’s not readily identifiable as American.
But it makes sense in a world in which Americans vandalize Teslas that Americans traveling abroad have a big target on their backs. It also makes sense that foreigners are taking a pass on vacationing in the US right now, effectively depressing our hospitality industry, which accounts for roughly 10% of national GDP (tourism by externals being about one-quarter of that).
If the percentages don’t impress, try on the absolute dollar amounts put at risk:
The U.S. tourism industry is already starting to see a flurry of cancellations across the board, from business to leisure and family travel. "That cancellation impacts, obviously, hotel reservations, restaurants, every element that deals with tourism," said [US professor of tourism Hachim] Jaddoud. In 2024, spending by international visitors generated $2.9 trillion in economic output. It supported 15 million jobs, from the more obvious hotel workers to indirect services like taxi drivers, according to the U.S. Travel Association. Canadian travelers alone spent $20.5 billion, and just a 10% reduction could mean a loss of $2.1 billion.
A billion here, a billion there and — pretty soon — you start talking about some real money.
7) Teeing up the drone war-after-next
AP: Pentagon official: US military has no authority to do drone strikes on drug cartels in Mexico
SPARTANAT: Mexico — Cartel drones at US border
NEW REPUBLIC: Trump Weighs Bombing Mexico—Because Everything Else Is Going So Well
The drug cartels are already using drones on Mexican security and police forces — and each other, so, you say, why shouldn’t the US military or maybe just the CIA join the party?
Indeed, the Trump Administration is considering this.
I will be honest: so long as you work it out in advance with the Mexican government, I’m all for it. The idea that the cartels get to use military grade weaponry and engage in war-crimes-level atrocities and we’re just supposed to arrest them like any normal criminal … just doesn’t compute for me.
I don’t see this happening so long as Iran is on the table vis-a-vis Israel. But, say the Trump Administration scratches out some nuclear deal with Tehran, or Jerusalem just decides it’s finally go-time on the regime … then I see the Cartel Wars being next up. It’s so turn-of-the-century America, like Black Jack Pershing chasing Pancho Villa around Mexico in 1916.
So, yeah, very MAGA in tone and yet possibly with wider public appeal — on both sides of the border — than one might assume.
There is no pro-drug cartel lobby on either side. In fact, this could easily become a breakthrough point of agreement amidst all the other complaints that the US and Mexico seem to have with one another right now.
So pay attention to the preparations and normalizing behaviors, because this WILL happen, I am convinced, once Iran is settled one way or the other.
It simply fits the Trump 2.0 pattern and stated ambitions, which are very much moving away from East-West dynamics and very much moving toward North-South vectors.
Trump wants a super-secure southern border and will maximally pursue actions that achieve that goal for another 45 months.
8) The year without a Santa Claus
REUTERS: Has Trump cancelled Christmas? China's decorations makers report no US orders
Suck it up and settle for last year’s leftovers, I say.
But before that, expect the same dynamic to unfold over 4th of July fireworks and Halloween costumes/decorations.
Ho! Ho! Ho! Bury Christmas! Bury Christmas!
9) Middle Earth’s northern border
WAPO: Where drought conditions have plagued U.S. — and why it’s been so dry
Per my book, I define the lower latitudes as stretching 30 degrees north and south of the equator.
Thirty degrees north slices right along the US southern border, where we can expect the worst Middle Earth-like conditions of drought to unfold.
So, America will have a front row seat for the most severe climate changes, which, in turn, will keep our southern border always under stress from migrants seeking relief.
10) We just let them grab ‘us by the property
CNBC: Here’s how China could crush the U.S. housing market
MBS, or mortgage-backed securities … you remember the variant known as Collateral Debt Obligations (CDOs) do you not? They are a “derivative” (i.e.,a securitized contract whose value is dependent upon one or more underlying assets).
A mortgage-backed security (MBS) is an Asset Backed Security (ABS) where the specific assets behind the security are mortgages. A collateralised debt obligation (CDO) is an ABS where the specific assets behind the security are bonds, often a pool of MBS.
GoogleAI
If you don’t remember, then go back and watch the movie The Big Short.
Because it’s the perfect middle-aged White guy movie — full of them, made by them, made for them, and about stuff only they understand!
KEY POINTS:
At the end of January, foreign countries owned $1.32 trillion worth of U.S. mortgage-backed securities, or 15% of the total outstanding, according to Ginnie Mae.
“If China wanted to hit us hard, they could unload Treasurys. Is that a threat? Sure it is,” said Guy Cecala, executive chair of Inside Mortgage Finance.
Selling of MBS by foreign entities could further spook the mortgage market.
The leading owners of MBS are Japan, China, Taiwan, and Canada, begging the question, Who is Trump pissing off most lately?
China may have a property crisis but the US is just a few percent points away from one of its own, particularly when you factor in all those uninsured houses, thanks to climate change.
People who live in glass houses, say I, need to be more careful about picking up bricks and issuing threats.
11) A very successful developmental model
VISUAL CAPITALIST: Where Living Standards Are Rising in Europe (2014–2024)
This is why Putin needs to invade countries to keep them from joining the EU: because, by doing so, these countries all got dramatically richer.
Russia’s brand sucks, the EU’s brand is magnificent.
This is winning in the 21st century superpower brand war.
Don’t you let anyone tell you otherwise.
12) We don’t need no stinkin’ babies!
SCRIPPS: Number of Americans who never want to have children has doubled, research says
The depressing(?) message:
The number of people in the U.S. who never want to have children has doubled over the last two decades, according to new research from a team at Michigan State University.
According to the study, the percentage of nonparents who don’t want children grew from 14% in 2002 to 29% in 2023.
During the same timeframe, nonparents who planned to have children in the future dropped from 79% to 59%.
This survey is primarily of the Millennials and GenZs, meaning we should expect a lower birth rate in the next 20-25 years, taking us right up to the Singularity, when, supposedly, advances in medicine allow us to achieve “escape velocity” as humans — meaning, say, your annual treatment actually de-ages you by more than 12 months, keeping you in a sort of perpetual refresh mode.
I know everybody thinks that younger generations are growing wary of having kids. As a father to six, I can tell you, the obligations never end and you are truly trapped by your circumstances — not an attractive package when you feel like humanity is reaching this unbelievable crunch point of demographic collapse + climate devastation + AI and quantum computing + the whole biotech angle in the Singularity.
That is a stunning package of transformational developments that, per human instinct honed over the millennia, says to you: keep things simple and mobile and be ready for anything.
Kids do not fit that picture, and having so fewer of them is going to age societies in profound ways, altering our likes and dislikes and ambitions and fears as humans.
Understand, I don’t regret going all the way to six. I wasn’t born to sit out any challenges.
I also know that we need challenges as a species, which is going to make the next quarter century quite the ride.
John F. Kennedy in the year of my birth:
This is the mindset we need to regain.
Good stuff as usual. I find your Sunday cutdowns to be your best posts.