Sunday Cutdown LXV (16 March 2025)

Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document

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1) Duh! Baby Duh!

SEEKING ALPHA: The world’s oil trade has peaked, renewable energy investments will accelerate – Carlyle

For years early this century (hmm, suddenly I feel very old), I’d give my future-of-the-world brief and I’d be confronted with “peak oil” questions — from that one guy in the audience — as clearly something I was missing in my analysis. I’d reply: Peak oil demand will happen long before peak oil supply. That would always elicit a few incredulous snorts from others in the crowd, but I knew I had solid projections backing me up.

I guess it makes sense that is only became clear in retrospect:

The global trade in fossil fuels peaked in 2017 and could decline as nations’ investments in renewable and nuclear power or energy security accelerate, according to Carlyle Group.

Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, said in a note that the world is seeing a peak in oil trade, although fossil fuels energy will not disappear anytime soon, as they are convenient but with transport that is “increasingly vulnerable” to President Donald Trump’s trade wars will push countries to reduce oil and gas imports and invest in renewable energy.

So, do we really need to achieve “energy dominance” in a declining industry?

Then again, isn’t that the raison d’etre of MAGA in general? We go back to the future while everybody else races forward?

2) So many places to Americanize, so little time

WAPO: It’s not just the Gulf of Mexico. Why is so much of America named after foreign countries?

The Gulf of America is just the tip of this un-American iceberg.

American places should have American names, just like all of us should speak American!

I say rename them all for Trump, just to simplify.

• Trump Town

• City of Trump

• Trumpolis

• Trumpgrad

• Donaldland

• Los Trumpeles.

The choices are infinite!

So many negative associations to be eliminated:

The places named after Israel and Palestine … coexisting — only in America.

Then, in the same article, we run across this little gem about people with the perfect name:

Speaking of Americans, we found more than 7,000 “Americas” in the United States. Almost all of them are women, and almost all of them are Hispanic.

Remember, how, in Game of Thrones, any bastard got the same last name, so, up north, all bastards were surnamed Snow?

How about we just give all immigrants the same last name of America? It would simultaneously mark them for life, but in a cool, patriotic way.

I’m writing my Senator now.

3) Climate change affecting space industry

AP: Climate change, already causing problems on Earth, could soon create a mess for orbiting satellites

The gist:

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology calculated that as global warming caused by burning of coal, oil, gas continues, it may reduce the available space for satellites in low Earth orbit by anywhere from one-third to 82% by the end of the century, depending on how much carbon pollution is spewed. That’s because space will become more littered with debris as climate change lessens nature’s way of cleaning it up.

And what is that natural cleaning process?

Part of the greenhouse effect that warms the air near Earth’s surface also cools the upper parts of the atmosphere where space starts and satellites zip around in low orbit. The cooling also makes the upper atmosphere less dense, which reduces the drag on the millions of pieces of human-made debris and satellites.

That drag pulls space junk down to Earth, burning up on the way. But a cooler and less dense upper atmosphere means less space cleaning itself.

Add it to the list of weird-ass externalities associated with climate change.

4) Don’t nuke where you drink

REUTERS: Attack on Iran's nuclear sites would contaminate Gulf water supply, Qatar PM says

One can take the PM at his word.

What interests me is why he’s pushing that warning right now.

5) Climate change hits home

YAHOO: Homeowners floored by skyrocketing costs due to factors beyond their control: 'I actually felt like I might have to sell the house'

The plight in a nutshell for this Arizona resident:

Vivien Winneke, a homeowner and assessor for the Dewey-Humboldt Firewise community, knows how to protect her home from the risk of fires. This involves trimming trees and clearing out space between shrubs. However, even with her proactive measures, her insurance rates were just raised by over 300%.

"It was all fine until August, and then all of a sudden my renewal went up from $1,450 a year to $4,500," Winneke said. "That's more than my property taxes."

"I'm on a fixed income, like most of the people in Dewey-Humboldt," Winneke added. "Most of the people here are retired, and they're not high income. I actually felt like I might have to sell the house."

Older people, living on fixed incomes in warm, almost always sunny places … a glimpse of the danger zone that Middle Earth becomes.

State insurance rate boards are fielding requests from companies to raise rates at a stunning … well … rate: North Carolina looking at 42% rise in hurricane coverage cost, State Farm wants 22% hike for California fires.

No insurance, no mortgage, no home ownership.

That’s the Global North’s version of losing your farmland across the Global South, and it hurts just the same, and it puts vulnerable people on the move just the same.

6) Horizontal proliferation

Jim Nuttle illustration from “America’s New Map”

POLITICO: Poland seeks access to nuclear arms and looks to build half-million-man army

REUTERS: Germany's Merz wants European nuclear weapons to boost US shield

NYT: America’s Allies Are Shaken, and Now They’re Taking Action

What he said in his book:

Most debate on nuclear proliferation focuses on its horizontal expression—an increase in the number of nuclear powers. It is the vertical form—nuclear powers increasing their arsenals—that dangerously blurs the non-nuclear/nuclear boundary by insinuating that limited nuclear warfare can be successfully waged in a regional conflict without escalating to world-decimating strategic nuclear missile exchanges. That could well become the most dangerous legacy of Russia’s war with Ukraine, which once hosted Soviet nuclear missiles only to surrender them to Moscow following the USSR’s collapse.

Expect more US allies to seek such missile-hosting privileges (both nuclear and non-nuclear) in the years ahead, meaning there remains plenty of work— largely self-disciplinary—for US diplomats on the proliferation issue.

I couldn’t have described it better myself.

I guess the real point here (insinuated above) is that one should never give up one’s nukes. Ukraine’s now “bad example” was based on the West’s promises to kinda … sorta … extend NATO’s nuclear umbrella over its territory in exchange for its selflessly idealistic move. That guarantee proved to be illusory — both to Ukraine’s disadvantage (no deterring Russia’s conventional attack with superior forces) and to Ukraine’s distinct advantage (allowing nuke-less Kyiv to pound away on Russian troops knowing full well that a nuclear power can’t be the first to use nukes against a non-nuke opponent — as nukes are only good for preventing another nuclear power from attacking you).

But, yeah, if I’m Poland, I want some US nuclear missiles on my territory per NATO sharing (like Turkey) following Trump’s … whatever you want to call it.

A NYT column put it well:

Thanks to Mr. Trump’s words and actions, the perceived value of acquiring nuclear weapons among allies appears to have quickly gone up, while the confidence in extended deterrence has gone down.

There is a loss of US power in this dynamic, likewise a loss of control.

Most Americans have never lived in a world where the US wasn’t large and in charge. Much like the anti-vaxxers, the isolationists have little to no idea what they’re risking — it’s been so long since the costs were apparent.

7) We don’t need no stinkin’ missions!

NYT: State Dept. Plans to Close Diplomatic Missions and Fire Employees Overseas

The cost is mostly measured in HUMINT (human intelligence) resources:

Senior State Department officials have drawn up plans to close a dozen consulates overseas by this summer and are considering shutting down many more missions, in what could be a blow to the U.S. government’s efforts to build partnerships and gather intelligence, American officials say.

The department also plans to lay off many local citizens who work for its hundreds of missions. Those workers make up two-thirds of the agency’s work force, and in many countries they form the foundation of U.S. diplomats’ knowledge of their environments.

It’s the Tom Friedman school of journalism: ask the cab driver what’s going on and then turn it into a column … or a diplomatic cable.

It actually works. When I drove cab I knew just about everything there was to know about the city (Madison WI). I knew all the sex workers, all the drug dealers, all the night-shift nurses … everybody. I talked to cops all the time. I knew the panhandlers by name and intersection — even regular hours. My knowledge was encyclopedic (Why this business failed and why that one is killing it) and in real time because I was constantly moving, constantly gossiping with riders.

All that street knowledge … it goes away the minute you stop being present. And that can be dangerous in most countries in this world.

8) The Med’s got it bad

YAHOO: Farmers issue urgent plea for help as beloved fruit suffers staggering decline: 'A huge amount of production has been lost'

The Mediterranean region has historically been defined by being the sweet climate spot for growing dates, but it turns out that kiwis had come to define significant portions of the ag exports of both Italy and Greece.

In Italy, over half of the total kiwi output has been lost in the last 10 years. Advocates attribute the drop to less stable temperatures and growing conditions, as well as a surge in climate-fueled plant diseases, according to EFA News.

Meanwhile, severe flooding has washed out 3,000 of 7,000 kiwi acres in Thessaly, Greece, where most of the nation's supply is grown, the National Herald reported.

"Fruit and vegetables are the sector most exposed to the effects of climate change," said Raffaele Drei, the president of Fedagripesca Confcooperative, an Italian federation of agricultural, food, and fishing cooperatives, per EFA News. "A huge amount of production has been lost."

We’re going to see this phenomenon again and agin all over the world: where we once grew A, we now have to shift to B or nothing, with A moving somewhere else or indoors.

Relocation, relocation, relocation — the three biggest rules in real estate this century.

9) Superpower brand self-destruction: Freedom Fries anyone?

TNR: The Entire World Is Pissed at Trump—and It May Cost the U.S. Big Time

America’s back! And the world can’t stand us.

The boycotts emerging only add to the targeted tariffs designed to handicap — in many instances — the same American flagship companies.

This goes way beyond Tesla.

Trump is so busy trying to bury DEI, when, in reality, he’s triggering BDS (boycott, divest, sanction) vibes against us the world over.

MAGA thinks it’s firing the world like on The Apprentice when it’s the world firing America.

Trump promised a big FU to the world and he’s delivering it alright.

I know, I know. We need to take our Hard Guy cues from Putin, Orban, and Kim now. Go with the winners!

10) I can see the explosive Congressional hearings in my mind

ATLANTIC: The Diseases Are Coming; Elon Musk’s slash-and-burn government tear will have lasting effects on global health.

The next pandemic will eventually arrive, and America will not be ready for it, thanks to four years of Trump 2.0 with RFK Jr leading the charge to dismantle and destroy our public health infrastructure and federal response capabilities.

Many Americans will needlessly die, stoking great anger.

The Congressional hearings will focus on this administration and the controversial and risky decisions it made.

It is all so stunningly predictable.

The irony is rich: this administration denies climate change, which is moving pathogens from lower, warmer latitudes to higher, suddenly more vulnerable latitudes, but, at the same time, “it has actively dismantled the infrastructure the country relies on to detect and confront deadly pathogens.”

I believe the phrase — admittedly overused — is a perfect storm.

11) Hate the sin, love the sinner

REUTERS: China's power grid clean-up puts several US systems to shame

China is breaking records in both sinning and penance:

China's steady expansion to coal-fired power capacity has drawn ire from U.S. power system advisers who gripe that there's little point in cleaning up generation at home while China lifts coal-fired emissions ever higher.

Whataboutism at its idiotic finest.

Well, John’s parents don’t make him do it!

Yeah, that one always worked wonders with my Mom.

But those arguments overlook the fact that China's power generation network is already substantially cleaner than several major U.S. power systems, thanks to record-fast deployment of clean energy supplies.

The proof? China is emitting less CO2 per unit of electricity production than the state of Florida and “several other major U.S. power systems.”

Ouch!

China produces 2X our electrical power output, but its fossil fuel share is roughly the same — about 60%.

Our finger-pointing is getting old.

China’s shift to renewables continues apace; America’s is predicted to stagnate and even backtrack possibly under Trump 2.0.

12) This is US ag exports on Trump 2.0 — repeating Trump 1.0?

USDA: Record U.S. FY 2022 Agricultural Exports to China

We had a good ag export relationship with China in the Before Time. Trump came in and torpedoed it. Biden got it back up, and now Trump is going to torpedo it again.

Soybeans are the canary in the coal mine: Trump’s trade conflict with China in 2018 resulted in over $27 billion in losses for our ag sector, with soybeans accounting for more than two-thirds of those losses. Before Trump, we were the world’s largest soybean exporter. Now Brazil is, and we have not fully regained our market share in soybean exports to China — the world's leading buyer of the commodity.

Trump fixes trade deficits like Reagan fixed fiscal deficits: fiery rhetoric, bold moves, and nothing to show for it.

Anyway, we made Brazil great in soybeans and we can do it again!

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