Sunday Cutdown LXVIII (6 April 2025)
Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document
1) The End is Near!
NYT: Globalization Is Collapsing. Brace Yourselves.
AXIOS: Global economy turns away from U.S.
So self-centered.
The American view: if we pull out, it all comes crashing down, when, in reality, we just incentivize the world toward rapid non-US-centric integration.
It stings most when it comes from the Canadians:
"Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over," Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said today. "The 80-year period when the United States embraced global economic leadership ... is over."
Why the hell should they all give up the benefits of globalization just because the US is threatening to do so in a colossal fit of pique?
So, when American analysts look out across the world, they see only danger, when, I’m telling you, most of the world sees adjustment (at worst) and opportunity (at best).
Trump thinks he has the world by the you-know-what, when, in truth, the counterpunching tactics here favor just about everyone over us.
Are we re-running the run-up to WWI/WWII? I would argue that the sophistication of the world system today, coupled with our deep understanding of its workings, allows cooler heads to prevail.
If the US could do Afghanistan and Iraq and nothing else ensued, and Russia could do the same repeatedly with Ukraine, then there’s no good reason to think a combined US-Israel-KSA beatdown of Iran would trigger much of anything. Same for China going at Taiwan. Far from there being chaos unleashed, indifference would reign.
2) Meanwhile, back at the ranch …
GUARDIAN: Climate crisis on track to destroy capitalism, warns top insurer
The insurance industry sees the spray paint on the still-standing load-bearing wall.
Capitalism is not built for constant disasters. It just isn’t.
Without insurance, a lot of economic risk becomes unmanageable:
The climate crisis is on track to destroy capitalism, a top insurer has warned, with the vast cost of extreme weather impacts leaving the financial sector unable to operate.
The world is fast approaching temperature levels where insurers will no longer be able to offer cover for many climate risks, said Günther Thallinger, on the board of Allianz SE, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies. He said that without insurance, which is already being pulled in some places, many other financial services become unviable, from mortgages to investments.
Think about it: when insurance fails, can you afford a house? Can you afford healthcare? Can you afford to operate your own car?
We’re talking big chunks of a middle-class existence going by the wayside unless the risk landscape is dramatically regraded.
This insurance head puts it bluntly:
Thallinger said: “The good news is we already have the technologies to switch from fossil combustion to zero-emission energy. The only thing missing is speed and scale. This is about saving the conditions under which markets, finance, and civilisation itself can continue to operate.”
Doesn’t exactly sound like drill, baby, drill, does it?
Humans are stubborn beasts.
3) The sheer cynicism of short-changing the MAGA base
GUARDIAN: ‘Oligarchy’: Trump exempts big oil donors from tariffs package
WAPO: Something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession
AXIOS: Trump tariffs would hit lower-income Americans hardest
NYT: America Has Never Been Wealthier. Here’s Why It Doesn’t Feel That Way.
Big Oil will do fine, as will the Tech Bros, large corporations, and the super rich in general. The rest of us will pay through the nose, as they say. Trump is trying to shield Red districts, but all our trade partners are smart enough to target those same Red districts with their own tariffs, so everybody should be feeling the pain soon enough.
Trump is certainly transforming the economy: from the envy of the advanced world in the post-COVID era to a stagflation that may well rival the Ford-Carter years.
Anyway, so long as the rich get richer, the system is working.
4) Which way to the future?
GIZMODO: AI Experts Say We’re on the Wrong Path to Achieving Human-Like AI
The gist: too much of spending and research on AI is chasing hyped-up capabilities without much economic value.
More worrisome: simply scaling up the current approaches won’t get us to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — the Holy Grail achievement when AI approximates the human brain in functioning (performing tasks and learning).
Everything I’m being exposed to right now via my various consulting engagements tells me that almost all predictions of the next five years are going to be delayed, but not beyond ten years. We’re just in those early days when everybody is claiming to be an AI company and most are not, so the waste/wait factor is far higher than the hype suggests.
The “delay” will hardly hurt anyone, and give us that much more time to ready ourselves for the Robot Apocalypse!
5) Make an example out of Hungary — the right way
THE HILL: Expel Hungary from the European Union
It is so embarrassing to think the GOP not only admires Orban but apes his style and content.
Thank God Saddam and Qaddafi are both dead so we were spared Trump’s buddying-up with them.
I agree with this op-ed: the EU should isolate Hungary within the Union, putting it on a probation of sorts. They agreed to the European body of law and the regime hasn’t kept up the effort.
Membership came with requirements and Budapest no longer meets them.
Giving them the boot or anything short of that while signalling great displeasure strikes me as well worth the hassle.
Just like a few Deep Red states in America, Hungary is basically free-riding — taking in more than it contributes while thumbing its nose at the rest and their “rules.”
Secession wouldn’t be the worst thing. It’s been a solid lesson for the UK, has it not?
Me? I’d love to see one of MAGA-lands declared independence and strike out on their own. The educational effect would be tremendous.
6) Bye bye science, bye bye!
THE HILL: Poll of scientists shows large majority weighing leaving US
NYT: The Next Generation of American Scientists Is Losing Faith
Understand, a lot of our scientists are immigrants or work-visa types or here first and foremost for the schooling, so the threat of abandonment is real.
From PERPLEXITYai:
Doctoral-Level Scientists and Engineers
~50% are immigrants, with many entering through H-1B visas.
43% of scientists/engineers with PhDs were foreign-born in 2021.
In critical fields like computer/mathematical sciences, 58% of doctorate-level workers are immigrants.
STEM Workforce Overall
19% of all U.S. STEM workers are foreign-born (2021 data).
25% of science/technology workers are immigrants.
Temporary Visa Holders
35% of science/engineering doctorate recipients from 2018–2021 held temporary visas.
~72–73% of international STEM graduates initially stay in the U.S. post-graduation (via OPT program), but long-term retention drops to ~38% for non-PhD holders.
75% of international STEM PhD recipients remain in the U.S. long-term.
Trump’s brilliant “golden age” outcome in the works: just as the Technological Singularity arrives, America decides to drives out most of the scientists and science.
The sheer stupidity is breathtaking.
7) In Europe’s sights: US service industry
WIRED: Trump’s Aggression Sours Europe on US Cloud Giants
This is going to cost us plenty and open up the world for China’s 5G/IoT/AIoT domination.
An entirely self-inflicted wound due to Trump’s infantile obsession with Old School manufacturing.
Then again, that’s so Mao’s Cultural Revolution in China: purposefully dumbing down the economy to render it easier for elites to control.
8) Now I lay me down to sleep …
FORBES: A Ukrainian Drone Sneaked Up On Russian Troops Snug In Their Sleeping Bags
Yeah, it snuck up on them, and killed them in their sleep.
There’s your future of warfare segueing into the future of policing — a completely unfair fight.
As scary as that may seem, it’s a good thing. The enduring BS about man’s warrior spirit being more resilient and powerful than any technology is evaporating as these anecdotes (the singular of “data”) accumulate.
War as we have known it forever will disappear this century.
You make the warfare … you make it too good!
9) Send in the Marines Chinese!
WAPO: Trump’s USAID cuts cripple American response to Myanmar earthquake
China, by early indications, is out-aiding the US by a 9-to-1 margin.
That’ll matter plenty over time.
10) Eliminate the negative
AP: Israel’s operations in Gaza expand to seize ‘large areas.’ Palestinians say dozens killed
The elimination of Gaza the territory remains on pace.
Every time Hamas pulls the trigger, the IDF will claim more land … until it’s all gone.
A real-world Hunger Games.
11) America’s Millennials and Gen Zs are not alone in redefining the “good life”
THE CONVERSATION: Living in ‘garbage time’: when 500 million Chinese change their spending habits, the world feels it
America’s Boomers will go down as the apogee generation when it comes to consumerism, material wealth in general, and particularly in “great careers.” All of that is getting redefined — downwards in the minds of Boomers but sideways for everybody else who no longer believes in that generation’s logic of success and achievement.
When I was a kid, there were three professions I recognized: doctor, lawyer, and loser. I chose loser and never looked back.
I was behind my generation but ahead of my time.
The point here? China is seeing the same generational transformation, proving yet again how economics determines all (h/t K. Marx).
12) Oh, I'm living in the future
I feel wonderful, I'm tipping over backwards
I'm so ambitious, I'm looking back
I'm running a race and you're the book I read
TALKING HEADS, “THE BOOK I READ,” 1977
NYT: Trump’s Trade War Risks Forfeiting America’s Economic Primacy
NYT: I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America.
Of course, Trump’s trade war will torpedo America’s economic primacy. Most ill-conceived revolutions end up destroying the very thing they purported to be saving.
Trump will go down as our Gorbachev, who thought a bit of transparency (glasnost) would lead to restructuring (perestroika) when all it did was collapse the entire Soviet system.
I say, give Trump his Nobel Peace Prize now. He’ll need it bad later on.
you coulda just called this one- "MAGA inflicts inexplicable huuuuge own goal on a great nation"