Sunday Cutdown XXXI (30 June 2024)
Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document
1) Noah’s Ark — for real?
REUTERS: Protecting 1.2% of Earth would prevent most extinctions, study says
The idea of transporting animals to climate safe zones is out there. I’ve read a few articles that name the UK as the possible “ark.” Not sure about that.
But then here comes this report that suggests something similar but different:
Setting aside an additional 1.2% of the world's land as nature preserves would prevent the majority of predicted plant and animal extinctions and cost about $263 billion, according to a study published on Tuesday.
I’m guessing a sort of an adapt-in-place mode that provides permanent sanctuary from development while this whole climate thing blows over.
Understand, the current and sixth mass extinction period that we’re living through isn’t caused solely by climate change but by a number of dynamics, to include:
Habitat destruction (conversion of 40% of all land for food production)
Deforestation (with agriculture responsible for 90%)
Unsustainable water use (ag at 70%)
Pollution
Overfishing and hunting
Invasive species
Ocean acidification
And now, turbocharging all, is climate change.
In the end, the bucket called “climate change” will be the primary culprit, and that is driven by our consumption patterns. But the leading/bleeding edge of this is loss of habitat (likewise driven by consumption). We are simply remapping the planet with climate change.
But you get my point: it’s impossible to disaggregate the causality of something so complex even as we can spot the drivers and we can see where the impact for species is worst — and that is loss of habitat.
The number 1.2% surprised me, but I assume the scientists were looking for the lowest and still effective amount.
Global policymakers will meet at a United Nations summit in Colombia in October to discuss plans for reaching that goal.
Some realistic details, for once:
The study's proposed protections would cover an additional 1.6 million square km (633,000 square miles) - an area about a fifth the size of the United States - across 16,825 sites globally that are home to rare and threatened species.
That's on top of the nearly 16% of the world that already have some level of protection.
The study estimated the $263 billion bill is how much it would cost to acquire the new areas, many of which include private property, at current value over the next five years.
You can say, who can pull this sort of thing off inside their country?
Well, as I remember, Abe Lincoln gave away about 10% of America to farmers with the Homestead Act, and then Teddy Roosevelt snatched back about 10% of America for parks and preserves, so it can be done and it has been done in the past.
You just need strong leadership and political will.
2) Tiny bubbles
TIMES OF ISRAEL: From civilian ‘bubbles’ to Arab coalitions, Israel said weighing Gaza post-war schemes
The designs for Gaza emerge, without us being able to tell easily which plans are realistically being entertained by Jerusalem. What we know for sure is that Israel has already grabbed one-sixth of the Strip’s area for a buffer zone, with at least one control corridor bisecting the land into north and south.
So we now hear this:
Israeli and American officials are weighing competing proposals for a post-war plan for the Gaza Strip, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, though progress on the plans is being held up by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s refusal to seriously consider the issue until the offensive against Hamas ends.
One plan that is reportedly gaining traction in the political and military establishments would see the creation of “bubbles” or “islands” inside the enclave, which would serve as temporary shelters for Palestinians unaffiliated with the terror group Hamas.
Were it to be determined that Hamas no longer holds influence over such a bubble, the unaffiliated Palestinians would take on civic duties and distribute aid. Over time, a coalition of the US and Arab countries would manage the area.
Hmm.
And if such assurance and stability could never be reached for Bubble A, might it be cleared out in “failure” for somebody else to be allowed in and settle it?
Anyway, that’s the stated plan, and Netanyahu’s recent comments suggest that’s how things will start.
But others representing factions in his government offer visions that get to the punchline pretty darn fast:
A separate plan, envisioned by the right-wing Misgav think tank, calls for a long-term Israeli military occupation of Gaza, at least until three-quarters of the military wings of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have been eliminated. According to the report, the IDF estimates it has killed or captured about half of Hamas’s fighting force. Only once that objective is accomplished would the administration of the enclave by a separate force be feasible, the think tank said.
Hmmm. Gotta wonder about that “separate force.”
Other plans cited come from sources less close to the government, including a US think tank.
What all of them appear to acknowledge is that this conflict is years away from a conclusion acceptable to Jerusalem, so I would expect plans and visions to come and go, rise and fall, appear and disappear — all while facts on the ground accumulate.
3) Tour de Russia
ONLINE.UA: Russia sends its soldiers in bike assaults due to vast weapons losses
NYT: Russia Sends Waves of Troops to the Front in a Brutal Style of Fighting
NYT: Motorcycles and Mayhem in Ukraine’s East
AP: Russia presses its offensive in Ukraine and issues new threats as the West tries to blunt the push
The Max Max headlines write themselves.
We hear that the Russians are winning, wearing down the smaller Ukrainian force.
But we also hear that Russia is losing stunning numbers: like 30k a month while recruiting the same rough amount. That’s kind of amazing. I mean, think about the US attempting the same and we’re twice Russia’s population. Our political system would go nuts, but Russia’s? For now, it seems to be taking it all lying down. How long can Putin keep that lid on? We shall see, but it’s not a winning equation by any means.
Russia is running so low on artillery shells that Putin had to go and kiss Kim Jong Un’s ring to get more. Meanwhile, Russia is also apparently running out of combat platforms, almost all of which have proven vulnerable to Ukrainian FPV (first-person view) drones in one way or another.
So, Russia is now reduced to sending in “meat waves” of troops on defenseless motorcycles, losing an average of 1k/day while daily gaining territory measured in yards — not miles.
The Online UA piece summarizes things nicely:
The more Russian soldiers ride into battle on bikes, the more they get injured and die due to their vulnerability to artillery and drones.
The Russian army is doubling down on the concept of assault motorcycles, which indicates a lack of equipment and the need for alternative options in military operations.
Losses of Russian forces as a result of motorcycle attacks confirm the ineffectiveness of this tactic and the great vulnerability to modern armored vehicles and drones.
Ukrainian troops are carrying out effective resistance with the help of drones and heavy artillery against Russian motorcycle troops, inflicting significant blows on the enemy.
Russian commanders send motorcycle troops to direct assaults on Ukrainian positions due to a lack of equipment, which leads to increased losses among their own forces.
[NOTE: the slightly circular repetition of that clip makes me think it was AI-generated, just FYI.]
The NYT captures the chaotic scene:
They first appeared as a cloud of dust on the horizon. A few seconds later, the motorcycles carrying Russian soldiers sped into view, zigzagging across a field, kicking up dust, attempting a noisy, dangerous run at a Ukrainian trench.
“They moved fast, they spread out and they swerved,” said Lt. Mykhailo Hubitsky, describing the Russian motorcycle assault he witnessed. It’s a type of attack that has been proliferating along the frontline this spring, adding a wild new element to the already violent, chaotic fighting.
Russian soldiers riding motorcycles, dirt bikes, quadricycles and dune buggies now account for about half of all attacks in some areas of the front, soldiers and commanders say, as Moscow’s forces attempt to use speed to cross exposed open spaces where its lumbering armored vehicles are easy targets.
These nonconventional vehicles have been turning up with such frequency that some Ukrainian trenches now overlook junk yards of abandoned, blown up off-road vehicles, videos from reconnaissance drones show.
The new tactic is the latest Russian adaptation for a heavily mined, continually surveilled battlefield, as Moscow’s forces work to achieve small tactical gains, often of just a few hundred yards.
Still, despite all these losses and the relative stagnation of the lines, the dynamics remain the same:
Russia has more bodies to waste and is willing to do so.
NATO is willing to keep upping the firepower ante, in turn leading Putin to level more meaningless nuclear threats.
That may strike you as unstable but I find it weirdly stable, as in, both sides for now seem pretty comfortable with it.
This only adds to the pointlessness vibe of this whole war, which is likewise very WWI in tone. I can see this going another 2-3 years like this …
Unless Trump gets in and cuts off our aid, leaving NATO stranded big time.
And that has to be Putin’s Hail Mary.
4) Here we go again
NYT: Foreign Police Officers Land on the Ground in Haiti
God bless ’em, but the Kenyans are willing to send in 400 peacekeepers into that never-ending mess called Haiti. Kenya is one of eight countries (Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Chad, Jamaica and Kenya — a powerhouse lineup if ever I saw one) responding to the local government’s desperate plea to help it regain control amidst a wave of gang violence (2,500 deaths this year alone).
The gangs, of course, have already vowed to fight the Kenyans tooth and nail.
The US has provided vehicular and material support but apparently no troops per se. The pricetag has been set at $600m but the established UN fund has kicked in only $21M so far.
Typical.
America has been dealing with an unstable Haiti for about … ever. We have sent forces there many times over the centuries and decades and will do so again in the future.
At some point, a more radical option must be considered: namely, turning it into either a US or UN protectorate. Haiti cannot run itself and none of these bandaids is going to change that enduring reality.
5) What I meant to say was this
NEW REPUBLIC: The New Climate Denial Is Based on These Six Terms
Kind of reminds me of George Carlin’s bit about “seven dirty words.”
The six?
Alarmist
Cost
Growth
India/China
Innovation
Resilience.
I get the point: “alarmism” is proven any time scientists come up with new data and it’s either much worse or slightly better and either version is easily labeled alarmist. Just keep saying that word and you sound like the adult in the room when, in truth, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Cost is the purest form of denialism: I didn’t do this so why should I pay now?
Growth is the Bjorn Lomborg bit: any $ we spend on climate change is a waste relative to development goals in the here-and-now. Not a bad broad-framing argument but he has become so doctrinaire on the subject that I now largely tune him out and I used to be a big fan.
India/China is the Trump bit for leaving the Paris Accord, basically a childish version of Jimmy’s mom lets him do it so why won’t you let me? This is America not acting its age, and it’s embarrassing.
Innovation is the silver bullet distraction: there’s always good news on the horizon and one uses that to deflect the more rapidly accumulating bad news. Just remember this: mitigation is long term but adaptation is now.
Resilience is probably the most maligned by its inclusion in this list. At worst, it detracts from mitigation by emphasizing adaptation, but — again — we need that now.
Why? Shit is hitting fans the world over.
6) The right direction on Ukraine
NYT: NATO Will Offer Ukraine a ‘Bridge’ to Membership, Hoping That’s Enough
This is the way ahead: Ukraine will lose territory but gain admission into NATO. That will be a major loss for both sides but it’s a way out of this war that’s going nowhere fast and furious.
Trump brags he will end the war in 24 hours. He wants Ukraine to give up the lost lands but he is completely unwilling to cross his buddy Putin on NATO membership.
Biden, on the other hand, could see this through.
This is not a small detail in our world right now: get it done and we’ve got a hugely reinvigorated NATO along with a similarly energized EU that no longer relies on Russian fuel.
Screw it up as Trump inevitably would (he’d sell out the Ukrainians for a Crimean resort with his name in big lights) and we have a far bigger mess on our hands.
Biden has done really well on managing this whole thing to date. History will be very kind to him on that score, despite all the carping from the political sidelines.
7) The new 20:1 seapower equation
BUSINESS INSIDER: Ukraine aims to deploy squads of up to 20 sea drones to do the job of a warship, commander says
You do the math.
Pretty cool, am I right?
This is plenty real already and it’s coming on with great speed. It will redefine what we mean when we speak about America’s defense industrial base.
Say it with me: the many, the cheap, the unmanned, and the disposable.
8) Let’s run the climate change numbers
NATURE: Global warming and heat extremes to enhance inflationary pressures
One of those lovely abstracts:
Climate impacts on economic productivity indicate that climate change may threaten price stability. Here we apply fixed-effects regressions to over 27,000 observations of monthly consumer price indices worldwide to quantify the impacts of climate conditions on inflation. Higher temperatures increase food and headline inflation persistently over 12 months in both higher- and lower-income countries. Effects vary across seasons and regions depending on climatic norms, with further impacts from daily temperature variability and extreme precipitation. Evaluating these results under temperature increases projected for 2035 implies upwards pressures on food and headline inflation of 0.92-3.23 and 0.32-1.18 percentage-points per-year respectively on average globally (uncertainty range across emission scenarios, climate models and empirical specifications). Pressures are largest at low latitudes and show strong seasonality at high latitudes, peaking in summer. Finally, the 2022 extreme summer heat increased food inflation in Europe by 0.43-0.93 percentage-points which warming projected for 2035 would amplify by 30-50%.
We can pretend that POTUS controls grocery store prices, but it’s a bit more complex than that.
We’re seeing how climate change is already reshaping housing (where it can remain, cost of insurance, etc.) and now we’re beginning to understand the likely cost when it comes to food.
When experts say that climate changes everything (the title of one of my book’s seven throughlines), this is what they’re referring to … EVERYTHING!
9) I’m listening …
WAPO: How water could be the future of fuel
Anybody not MSM prints this and I go, Yeah, right!
But since WAPO is the source, I pay attention.
This concept is one you hear about now and then for years and it’s always couched in such promising terms, but then you never really hear about it going anywhere … until maybe it does.
This seems a bit better than that norm.
First, the broad framing:
Although cars and light trucks are shifting to electric motors, other forms of transport will likely rely on some kind of liquid fuel for the foreseeable future. Batteries are too heavy for planes and too bulky for ships. Extendedcharging times could be an obstacle for long-haul trucks, and some rail lines may be too expensive to electrify. Together, thesevehicles represent roughly half of emissions from transportation, the fourth-biggest source of greenhouse gases.
To wean machines off oil, companies like Infinium, the owner of this plant, are starting to churn out hydrogen-based fuels that — in the best case — produce close to net zero emissions. They could also pave the way for a new technology, hydrogen fuel cells, to power planes, ships and trucks in the second half of this century. For now, these fuels are expensive and almost no one makes them, so the U.S. government, businesses and philanthropists including Bill Gates are investing billions of dollars to build up a hydrogen industry that could cut eventually some of the most stubborn, hard-to-remove carbon pollution.
Okay.
This is a good example of those mitigation efforts that make sense in so many ways and will eventually work, but their big-time impact is closer to the end of this century than now, meaning some real vision and ambition required (deep pockets like Gates).
This kind of broad mitigation … I always stipulate its utility, as cleaner is always better over the long run (reduced externalities).
[Funny, but even the frequency of use {see below chart} of the word externality {meaning, a side effect or consequence of an industrial or commercial activity that affects other parties without this being reflected in the cost of the goods or services involved} tracks nicely with the Anthropocene]
The rest of the excellent WAPO story explores how you make “green hydrogen”in a manner that does not contribute more pollution than its subsequent use ends up reducing.
10) Gone Amazon
PNAS: Critical slowing down of the Amazon forest after increased drought occurrence
From the report’s title page under “significance”:
The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts in the Amazon rainforest raises concerns about potential forest dieback. However, the precise role of drought occurrences in this phenomenon remains unclear. We used trends in temporal autocorrelation of satellite-derived indices of vegetation activity as a proxy for the critical slowing down response of the Amazon and differentiated between drought frequency, intensity, and duration to investigate their respective effects on the slowing down response. We found that this slower recovery to perturbations prevails in regions experiencing more frequent, intense, and longer droughts, albeit with regional variations. Most of the Amazon does not show critical slowing down, but the predicted increase in droughts could disrupt this balance, signifying the importance of understanding these dynamics.
“Forest dieback” is the term of art here. From Wikipedia:
Forest dieback (also "Waldsterben", a German loan word, pronounced [ˈvaltˌʃtɛʁbn̩] ⓘ) is a condition in trees or woody plants in which peripheral parts are killed, either by pathogens, parasites or conditions like acid rain, drought,[1] and more. These episodes can have disastrous consequences such as reduced resiliency of the ecosystem,[2] disappearing important symbiotic relationships[3] and thresholds.[4] Some tipping points for major climate change forecast in the next century are directly related to forest diebacks.[5]
Sounds like death by a thousand small cuts, which sounds a lot like how climate change devastates an area: ever slower recovery phases for species following frequent climate perturbations. Climate change simply wears one out.
Something to remember when we estimate how depopulated the lower latitudes may become this century, as it is the frequency of system perturbations that gets you in the end.
I imagine communities can suffer dieback just as easily as trees. Countries too.
Dieback then, is the accumulation of many small “deaths” that ultimate take down a system.
Something to remember.
11) The insurance man cometh … by drone
BOSTON 25 NEWS: Massachusetts insurance companies canceling homeowners policies using drone, aerial photos
Oh, the tiny black helicopters are coming alright … for your home insurance policy.
Check it out:
Homeowners insurance -- It’s a necessity many may not think much about as they pay to renew their policies year after year. So imagine receiving a letter from your longtime insurer highlighting several property problems that suddenly need to be addressed.
It’s exactly what happened to one Malden homeowner.
“I felt like I was blindsided. If you look at the things they asked me to do, it was a significant amount of money,” said John D’Entremont, who has owned his Malden home for more than 40 years.
He carried homeowners insurance through the same insurer the entire time and had never been notified of any issues. But last August, he got a letter from his insurer detailing pricey repairs. They needed a plan from him within 60 days.
“Get the moss off the roof, trim the tree back that had branches hanging over the house, and get some, in their case, they said get some shingles,” D’Entremont said.
You know this is being driven by climate change.
12) Not the way to view US-PRC competition in Latin America
RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT: The elusive Chinese boogeyman in Latin America
Responsible Statecraft often comes off as too-lefty and too-blame-America-firsty for me, but occasionally it’s right on the mark.
This is not one of those times.
Yes, America is too much in the bogeyman mode with regard to China and the quite normal things Beijing is doing around the world to extend its influence as a truly risen superpower.
But no, when those things involve Latin America, it’s not over-the-top for people to worry about the long term consequences for this reason alone: Climate change is going to break a great deal of Latin America, sending a very large number of those populations northward out of desperation.
China does not care about that and will work LATAM just like it works countries the world over — namely, taking out the resources at the best possible prices with little care for the resulting externalities.
In effect, then, China will gladly beggar our neighbors and leave us with the problems that ensue.
Where this article gets it right: Iran and Russia are small potatoes in our hemisphere.
Where it gets it wrong: acting like our military dominance in this hemisphere rules out any significant influence-capture victories by China over time.
This ain’t about military balances of power. This is a superpower brand war over a majority global middle class.
RS is correct to work the angle of America’s foreign policy is too militarized but wrong to assume that our military heft matters much to this superpower brand war — which is real and happening throughout LATAM.
