Sunday Cutdown XXXII (7 July 2024)
Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document
1) Disease is shifting to S—>N dynamic
WAPO: Climate change is fueling a global explosion of dengue fever as mosquitoes multiply in warmer, wetter weather
We tend to think of disease a lot in East-West terms because of the way influenza migrates each year: things happen in Asia and then they come over here, like air pollution almost. Infectious diseases naturally follow trade routes. Air travel is thus the bomb!
With climate change and the mass migration of virtually all species up in elevation and latitude, infectious diseases will naturally follow an even stronger dynamic: the need to stay within one’s preferred clime and thus the need to move when it moves (climate velocity). As we find weird new species in our backyards, we’re going to encounter diseases in new and sickening ways.
Dengue has been around for forever. But after World War II, it spread more widely due to increased global travel.
In the Americas, the carrying mosquitoes were eradicated in the 1950s but re-vived in the 1970s when we cut back on the spraying. As a result, dengue became extremely common (hyperendemic) in Central and South America during the 1980s, triggering significant epidemics.
With climate change and general warming of the atmosphere, mosquitos expand their range. Today, dengue is endemic in over 100 countries spread across all continents save Antarctica. The World Health Organization ranks it a top-ten global health threat.
So, what does our story say?
The obvious:
Climate change helped fuel an explosion of dengue cases in the Americas, including Puerto Rico, as mosquitoes multiply in warmer, wetter weather.
And yes, it is coming to the US southern border.
“The storm’s comin’, folks,” Grayson Brown, executive director of the nonprofit Puerto Rico Vector Control Unit, advised a group of California officials in a recent webinar. “It’s here in Puerto Rico, but you guys are going to feel it pretty soon.”
Here’s the real problem:
But even as human-made warming spurs cases to historic highs, dengue remains one of the world’s most neglected tropical diseases, according to the World Health Organization. Three out of four cases are mild or asymptomatic, making the illness difficult to track. And because the virus comes in four varieties, or serotypes, natural immunity after one illness does not protect against future infections with other types. What makes dengue unusual is that the risk of severe complications may actually increase with sequential infections of a different type.
Puerto Rico hasn’t had an outbreak in a decade, but as this one hits the US, we may just get seriously motivated about what has long been described as a “neglected” (i.e., Global South-centric) disease.
This is yet another reason why I see North-South integration necessarily happening: the alternative will just be that much worse and expensive and economically damaging.
2) Because it’s there
NYT: Why Do India and China Keep Fighting Over This Desolate Terrain?
Another one of those cool-looking quasi-animated bits from the Times, but here with sufficient broad framing (unlike previous ones touting the elevated risk of nuclear war).
The gist of the problem regarding the so-called Line of Actual Control (a true oxymoron):
“It’s four lines, actually,” [Vinod Bhatia, who served as director general of military operations for the Indian Army] told me when I visited Delhi last year. “One is the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control. Another is the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control. Third is the Indian perception of the Chinese perception of the Line of Actual Control — because we have a perception based on their line of patrolling. And the fourth is, of course, the Chinese perception of the Indian perception of the Line of Actual Control.”
Outsiders see a problem, but the militaries on both sides see opportunity to pantomime war — not necessarily a bad thing.
We all know the old bit about Why not have the aged leaders of the two countries simply slug it out in the boxing ring instead of an actual war that kills millions?
Well, this is about as close as one can get to that, hence my recent argument (Coming to a battlefield near India: The Military Singularity) about the Sino-Indian border being the perfect proving ground for future drone-defined warfare — a sort of robot Olympics just between the two Asian powers.
We will see that happen. Til then, they do it old school. But the flexing will continue and better to see it there, where nothing really matters, than somewhere else.
3) Are Ukrainians the most inventive — or just most incentivized — people in the world right now?
POLITICO: Ukraine’s ‘people’s satellite’ wreaks havoc on Russian targets
With private companies owning the bulk of the world’s satellites, is it any surprise that the Ukrainian people are now in business for themselves?
Democracy in action:
A crowd-funded Ukrainian satellite is allowing the country's military intelligence to watch Russians from space, spot their troops and destroy their weapons.
“The results are just over the moon,” Ukrainian Military Intelligence, also known as HUR, said in a report published Wednesday.
The micro-satellite bought from Finnish company ICEYE allows Ukrainians to spy on Russian troop locations, logistics and tanks and ships, military intelligence added.
The “just over the moon” bit is priceless. [Word play or pun, though? And think before you comment.]
The story’s details are even more intriguing:
The Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation and Ukrainian blogger Ihor Lachenkov crowd-funded some $20 million to buy three Bayraktar drones — which were a hot property in the first months of the war. However, Turkish manufacturer Baykar Defense decided to gift the drones to Ukraine instead.
With the money unspent, the volunteers consulted the military about the best use for the cash. In August 2022, they decided to buy one satellite as well as access to the database of Finish satellite company ICEYE created by the 21 satellites the firm owned at that time.
“I don't remember any case when civil society bought a satellite for defense intelligence of its country. And Ukrainians are the ones who did it. People felt their power to do such big projects for their defense forces,” Prytula said.
Ukraine did not have its own satellites before 2022.
You read a story like that and you know you’re on the right side of this war.
The larger lesson? ANY satellite can be adapted for war purposes.
4) How lost is Europe if Trump gets back in power?
FOREIGN POLICY: Trump’s Return Would Transform Europe
Brilliant lede:
Which is the real Europe? The mostly peaceful, democratic, and united continent of the past few decades? Or the fragmented, volatile, and conflict-ridden Europe that existed for centuries before that? If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, we may soon find out.
Three generic scenarios are offered:
Europe stays united
Europes does not stay united
Europe lapses into war.
What I have seen is this: Putin has done more to united Europe in two years than we ever did across the previous seven decades.
Is it better for the US to stay committed?
D’uh!
We’ll end up paying a lot more by going it alone and invariably freaking out the next time something scares us.
But Europe will survive even a Trump Part Two. We always assume we’re the only ones who can lead when it’s not true.
Still, Trump will be a stab-in-the-back if ever there was one — if we allow it to unfold. The man and his businesses are easily bought off. Just ask the House of Saud.
5) But what about those tiny volcanic islands in the Pacific that aren’t sinking?
ECONOMIST: The “Venice of Africa” is sinking into the sea
Okay, so some atolls can get by with healthy coral reefs producing enough sediment to keep them growing. That’s not exactly a worldwide solution to the issue of rising sea levels, nor does it “prove” some “lying” on the part of scientists. That kind of logic is childish in the extreme.
The more we study all these complex phenomena, the more we learn. It’s as simple as that. But assuming Mother Nature is always going to bail us out with positive doo-loops is a fantasy, because most of those doo-loops are negative and can achieve permanent lift-off with enough climate change. That’s something we’re also learning.
This story highlights the issue affecting the entire world, just from an unusual angle — typically forgotten (on this score) Africa:
Saint Louis is being washed into the sea.
A crowded island city built among waterways, Senegal’s former colonial capital—dubbed the “Venice of Africa”—is especially exposed to a changing climate and rising oceans. The thin peninsula on which fishermen like Mr Badiane live has the Atlantic on its west and the mouth of the Senegal river on its east. A botched attempt, in 2003, to reduce flooding by digging a canal only worsened things, putting a whole neighbourhood under water. A study commissioned by the Senegalese government found that 80% of the city will be at risk of flooding by 2080. “Saint Louis is a city of water,” says Mr Badiane. “If we’re not careful, it will all disappear.”
It will disappear. Senegal won’t have the money to keep it there, so it will disappear and — perhaps — reappear nearby. We will see this metropolitan migration play out across the world to varying degrees of success. Where the rich can manage it on their own, they will. Where economies are rich enough to defend their coastlines, they will for as long as their tax base permits it (not forever, to be sure).
The infrastructure required to stave off these losses will be supremely expensive, as I noted in America’s New Map:
Scientists have long warned of catastrophic outcomes if the world warmed merely 1.5oC (2.7oF) above preindustrial levels. Earth will hit that mark by 2040, with worldwide sea levels rising by one foot a decade later. For advanced Northern countries, we can anticipate monumental public expenditures and all manner of political controversy over how best to raise those funds. As for the South’s most vulnerable states, it is not hyperbole to state that many of them should anticipate the end of life as they have long known it.
We are now predicted to hit that mark any moment now: According to the latest projections from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now an 80% likelihood that the global average temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years (2024-2028).
It is coming, my friends.
6) Get used to the catch-phrase
GUARDIAN: ‘My escape is going north’: heatwaves begin to drive tourists in Europe to cool climes
Tourism is a lead indicator here: Go see it before it’s gone!
But also: It’s just too dam unpleasant to go there anymore during summer vacation.
Such a northern exposure will do more than that. Eventually, it will convince people — particularly retirees — to move north and avoid all the stress involved in the harsher reckonings of climate change at lower latitudes.
No need to play snow bird if the snow goes away that much.
This is why my wife and I will likely move to Green Bay Wisconsin next year — well, that and my dream of being an usher at Lambeau in retirement.
The story here is personal but worth reading for the vibe:
Like many Parisians, Mathilde Martin used to escape to the south of France at the height of the summer. But three years ago, a blistering heatwave made her rethink trips to the region where she grew up and her parents live.
“Rising temperatures have been a gamechanger,” the 51-year-old teacher said, after an experience a couple of summers ago: “We were near Perpignan during the summer and suffered scorching heat. That week was anything but enjoyable. It felt difficult to breathe at times. My parents, who live in Nice, have repeatedly told me at times in a worried tone that it hasn’t rained for months.”
Since then, she opts to take the train somewhere cooler during the summer’s peak – this year she will hike along the south coast of England – and instead head south in the spring or autumn.
Little by little we are stimulated to adapt. This latest example of climate-led human evolution is just beginning.
7) And the children shall save
CNBC: China’s young people are ‘revenge saving’ even as Gen Zers around the world are piling up debt
Another example of why Xi’s decision to stay president for life is backfiring: it simply telegraphs to young people that the future is scary and to be defended against.
Hell, the man advised them to learn how to eat bitterness.
That is about as depressing as it gets.
But it’s Xi lapsing into his childhood trauma during the Cultural Revolution. He’s basically offering the old-man bit about If you think you’ve got it tough, well … when I was a boy I had to …
That is a totally losing and uninspiring message, and so, China’s young effectively sabotage what should be a consumer boom driving the nation’s economic engine.
Xi is looking more clueless by the day.
8) Fadining Arctic superpower seeks sugar daddy for infrastructure development
SCMP: Russia seeking China’s help to develop Arctic shipping route – is it worth it for Beijing?
The gist:
Russia hopes the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will become a year-round shipping lane as global warming makes it possible to send ships through waters that were previously only passable in summer.
Some shipping is already using the route, but at the moment it is only passable for around 20 to 30 days a year along a 5,600km stretch between the Kara Sea, off the northwest coast of Siberia, to the Bering Strait, which separates Russia from Alaska.
But as more of the Arctic’s ice melts, the route may eventually be extended to Scandinavia and offer easier access to the North Sea than the Baltic.
Travelling between Shanghai and St Petersburg along this route would take a cargo ship around 20 days, compared with around 36 days via the Red Sea and Suez Canal, according to Russian media.
Cargo carried along the route could reach 270 million tonnes by 2035 - a nearly 10-fold increase on 2022, according to Rosatom, the Russian agency that oversees the sea lane.
Moscow sees this development as a crucial “out” from Europe’s successful de-coupling from the Russian economy following Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Before Ukraine, Moscow thrived on energy sales to a rich customer. Now, it barely gets by selling at below-market prices to China, whose monopsony power over Russia grows by the month.
The article’s judgment: China may just not be as into the Arctic as Russia.
Sound logic: The Arctic is Moscow’s only face card, while China is playing multiple tables all over the world.
That is Beijing’s bargaining power in a nutshell: Do it China’s way or we go somewhere else.
Ukraine has turned Putin into a pathetic supplicant. We can dress up his recent pity tour across East Asia as a looming threat, but that’s pure hyperbole.
9) They’re all going to be bumpy rides!
NYT: Severe Turbulence on Air Europa Flight Fractures Necks and Skulls
The data is out there:
Severe incidents of airplane turbulence increased by 55 percent from 1979 to 2020, per a study last year.
I have told this story in the past: I was a C boarding group member on a Southwest flight from New Mexico to Illinois last year, and a few minutes before boarding, Southwest said it needed to shed 19(!) passengers for reason of weight. I spoke with a SWA pilot dead-heading on the flight and he said it had to do with computer simulations predicting more turbulence than expected on the flight — due to climate change, so more maneuvering and effort translates into more fuel, which equates to fewer passengers in a computer-balanced load.
I barely made that flight (last one in) but I remember the feeling: I had almost been bumped by climate change.
We hear the stories more and more about scary injuries from turbulence, and they’re only going to get worse.
Me? I stay buckled in every second I can.
And those caring dads walking the aisles jiggling their infant child? They need a better coping mechanism because that is getting more and more dangerous.
10) The list of things I've heard now contains everything!
NEWSWEEK: Map Shows States Asking People to Avoid Being Outdoors
It is coming to this:
Dangerous to work outside, dangerous to be old and alone and infirm inside.
Our world is changing all around us.
Adaptation has to become a growth industry, both to protect us and to give us economic strength.
11) Calling King Canute!
WAPO: A rising fortress in sinking land
Build that wall! A cry we will hear more and more and not just to block migrants or keep Palestinians in their place.
Louisiana is becoming our Netherlands: a giant LNG export facility is being built with a miles-long sea wall surrounding it.
It might seem like a risky location for a $21 billion liquefied natural gas plant, given this region’s ferocious hurricanes and sea levels that are rising faster than almost anywhere else on the planet. But the company building this plant, Arlington, Va.-based Venture Global, says it has an answer to these threats: a 26-foot-high steel sea wall that surrounds the 632-acre site, twice the size of Washington’s National Mall.
I get the sea wall idea for Louisiana, but when it’s paired with an LNG port, you have to admit the irony.
12) Eye-high by the 4th of July!
WIVB4: Knee-high by the Fourth of July? Farmers laugh at that
Having grown up in corn country, I spent a good deal of my childhood praying for good weather for the farmers.
Our minimalist plea: knee-high by the 4th of July!
Farmers aim a bit higher nowadays, thanks to science.
A cause for optimism.
