The Era of Bad Feelings
We remain a very dissatisfied nation
America’s Era of Good Feelings (1815-1825) refers to a period in U.S. history marked by great national unity and purpose following the War of 1812. It was defined by the presidency of James Monroe (of the Doctrine, mind you), who aimed to foster national cohesion and downplay partisan divisions within American politics.
America’s Era of Bad Feelings (2010-2028 … at least) has been marked by great national disunity and loss of purpose following the Great Financial Crisis/Recession of 2008-plus. It is defined by the presidency of Donald Trump (of no doctrines save “beautiful” tariffs), who aims to re-animate American “greatness” through a more dictatorial presidency that leverages partisan division to the maximum (the return of Nixon’s “enemies list”).
Monroe’s era was ultimately terminated by the rise of Andrew Jackson, a man of unrelenting nationalism and a president to whom Trump is often compared (with his approval).
Trump’s unrelenting nationalism seeks to detach the United States from a global order of its creating — in effect, seeking free agency within the system to achieve his goal of absolute agency in running our national economy. It is a chimera — a fool’s errand, but it will be attempted and we will be forced to learn.
Does that mean that US-defined order goes away?
No. Europe still believes in it and continues to rise in its defense. It just won’t be able to rely on America for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, Russia will go down swinging, continuing its general decline by making trouble wherever and whenever it can. China will stake off more and more of the Global South for its particular form of economic dominance — while the getting is good, and India will necessarily be forced to rise more on its own, accommodating China — also more on its own (though I am intrigued now by an EU-India partnership possibility reflecting America’s being sidelined from global affairs).
That will be the theme in international affairs for the next several years: everybody on their own because the system’s primary and long-standing market-maker has now completely disavowed that role and responsibility.
As I have argued here at length: America needed to move away from its primacy-burdened market-making role now that the world has moved into an era of structural multipolarity. Simply put, we can’t run the show anymore and thus need to balance that instinct for control with one more focused on advancing our own economic and strategic interests. Trump, as I have noted many times, reflects that need to shift to a more market-playing role; he just goes so overboard on the subject (oh so American) as to be self-defeating.
But that’s just the lesson we are doomed to learn, meaning we apparently need to indulge that Trumpian instinct to blow it all up and force something new. Time and resources will be wasted — profoundly — in this lengthy attempt to reorder global power more to our liking (meaning, we get our way on just about everything).
By so aggressively embracing a market-playing role, the US will naturally engender a lot of pushback from just about everyone — friends and foes alike. This will be a long and trying education for both Washington and the American public. We will inevitably be disciplined by forces beyond both our borders and our control, and it will be humbling.
But hey, failure is a great teacher.
Trump’s return to power sets in motion a period of both superpowers and great powers seeking maximum return on their ambitions — an every-power-for-itself dynamic that will be scary for smaller powers and the Global South, whose needs and desires will be back-burnered — by American choice and European necessity — for quite some time (and thus left to China’s tender mercies).
On that score, Israel now has a green light to maximally pursue its 360-degree conflict, and, yes, Ukraine is doomed.
Meanwhile, all the big structural changes described in America’s New Map will continue to unfold. The Global North will continue to rapidly age and, in many instances, depopulate, while the Global South will continue to rise, thanks to favorable (relative) demographics and the integrating efforts of China and, subsequently, India in its own rise (along with the ambitious efforts of the Persian Gulf monarchies).
Amidst all this, climate change will exert more and more control (or chaos) over our lives but especially along the planet’s lower latitudes, creating ever more enormous and unrelenting immigration pressures, which, during this Era of Bad Feelings, will result in far more harsh North-on-South responses (as in, the mass killing is just beginning).
No, I do not see the world order tanking under Trump, but it will be stressed-tested beyond anything seen to date, and, in that tumult, China will be immensely empowered and credentialized throughout the Global South as THE force for stability and growth. India will — to whatever extent it rises in coming years — be forced to accommodate itself within that semi-world order of Beijing’s crafting. Meanwhile, Europe will struggle to keep itself together and resistant to Russian aggression, forced to embrace a much more militarized foreign policy now that it can no longer trust the US (fool me once with the first Trump term and shame on you, fool me again with a second Trump term and shame on me).
I do see America lost in its own internal identity struggles for the foreseeable future (that would have happened no matter who won last night), and subject to all sorts of international resistance in Trump’s push to somehow magically renegotiate America’s economic supremacy with a world that — unsurprisingly — no longer trusts or respects us (in reply to our profound lack of trust and respect for the world).
As for me, the message does not change — just the urgency, along with the receptivity within the US Government. It will fall increasingly to American (and European) industry and corporations to pick up the strategic “slack.” That’s been true since 2008, when America entered into this extended nation-building-at-home period. It’ll just be maximally true for the next four years.
So, chin up and summon your inner Churchill, as we now truly enter a danger zone similar to the 1930s.
This only makes our collective work that much more important.
Urgency imparts agency. Embrace the struggle. Remain a happy warrior.
