Sunday Cutdown IX (1/28/2024)
Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document
1) Climate adaptation goes behind the paywall
NYT: The People Have a Right to Climate Data
Interesting op-ed from the fellow who runs the Dartmouth Climate Modeling and Impacts Group. He fields data requests all the time and give it away on his site, but refuses bespoke analyses for private companies. Why?
I regard climate information as a public good and fear contributing to a world in which information about the unfolding risks of droughts, floods, wildfires, extreme heat and rising seas are hidden behind paywalls. People and companies who can afford private risk assessments will rent, buy and establish homes and businesses in safer places than the billions of others who can’t, compounding disadvantage and leaving the most vulnerable among us exposed.
The global business of consulting on climate risks is expected to climb to $4b by 2027.
While understanding the biz, our academic admits that he worries “that an overreliance on the private sector to provide climate adaptation information will hollow out publicly provided climate risk science, and that means we all will pay: the well-off with money, the poor with lives.”
Ah yes, the wider risks associated with whacking down government efforts and trusting the private sector to do right by all.
This researcher’s answer?
First, “Climate risk information, especially information that helps communities manage impacts like floods and wildfires, should be as available as government weather forecasts.” Second, the Fed should generate a national adaptation plan annually updated and buttressed by (3) a nationwide database that anyone can access when making life decisions, like buying a house.
Bottom line: “Freely shared information will save lives.”
Great argument.
2) Evolving 10,000 times normal speed by using drones
SLATE: Indian Farm Workers Are Being Replaced by Drones. They Fear a Much Darker Future.
I ran across this estimate when writing America’s New Map: Climate change basically asks all species to evolve at a rate 10,000 times the historical norm. Most species can’t do that, and if they cannot move in concert with climate shifts, they will perish in our current, Sixth Great Extinction Era in our planet’s history — pretty much accomplished by humans and humans alone.
Humanity, of course, has the technology — our great evolution accelerator. We will see this technology “pull” drag humanity into all sorts of revolutionary changes across industries, but perhaps most so in agriculture, which will be extremely stressed.
So here’s a story about how India is pushing drones as a technological upgrade to its ag sector, which is set to endure some profound environmental stressors in coming years and decades.
There are plenty of bold predictions that drones will be the future of farming. They are far quicker at chemical spraying, adaptable to a wide range of farm duties, and can aid with water conservation. But above all, they are praised for cost-efficiency. At a drone festival in 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said it was his dream to see a drone on every farm—they would be a game changer for the agricultural industry, he declared. In India, agriculture accounts for about a fifth of the national GDP.
But here’s the socio-economic downside: roughly 45% of Indian labor presently works in ag, so the kind of radical evolution-speeding-up tech transformation that India requires to surmount climate change will simultaneously force a lot of labor off the land.
Fortunately for India at this time in its economic rise, that forced dynamic is welcomed — even necessary. India cannot waste its vast demographic dividend (roughly 1/2 billion souls) on ag between, say, now and 2050. Instead, these workers must head to cities and jobs in manufacturing and other industries that exploit this “golden ticket” moment for the nation as a whole. That’s how China rose: revolutionize the ag sector, in effect force excess labor off the land, build up your cities, do whatever it takes to attract foreign direct investment, and manufacture your economy’s way up the production ladder from cheap to high-value products.
So, a good sign along many intertwined vectors.
3) This is why you stay
WAPO: In the new Afghanistan, it’s sell your daughter or starve
America left Afghanistan because it was a “forever war,” even though, at the end, it was costing us very little in either blood or treasure. The reality with any such intervention is, if you want to really fix it, you have to sit on it for decades for the generational turnover to unfold and new generations arise with new perspectives and a permanent refusal to go back to the “old ways.”
America has made such commitments in places (Germany, Japan, South Korea to name our most successful babysitting jobs — all of which still feature permanent US basing). NATO has done the same with the Balkans.
America didn’t see enough reason to continue in Afghanistan after achieving a certain national exhaustion on the subject, but that was only because we in the West (NATO) insisted on running the show and basically shutting out all the regional powers far more invested in any positive outcome but unwilling to play the Leviathan role.
Our attitude in both Afghanistan and Iraq was, if you didn’t show up for the war, then forget about cashing-in on the peace.
That was a stupid and self-defeating attitude that eventually torpedoed our effort, only to see that effort inevitably partially replaced by those very same regional players we sought, in our arrogance, to exclude.
I say “partially replaced” because, even as countries like China seek to cash-in on Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, none of those intervening players aspires to, much less fulfills that stabilizing Leviathan role we once played there, and so the Taliban rule.
[NOTE TO LONGTIME READERS: While I say Leviathan role there, I’m still talking about SysAdmin activities, as the former identity existed solely as a means (intel and air support) to keep the dreaded Taliban in the hills.]
And so the old ways have returned: families selling off their daughters (ages as young as six) for food, because that’s the only thing of value they can cash in to avoid starvation.
That is your Taliban rule, something we held off for two decades and then allowed back in. What would it have taken to prevent that? Basically just out sticking around and backstopping the Afghan government (as we did in a reasonably low-ball fashion through the Trump Administration), but we cut our losses under Biden, cumulatively substantial as they were, and now we — and our consciences — get to live with this outcome.
Trust me, Fawzia (age 6 above), is going to spend the rest of her days wondering what was I made for?
4) Hitting Putin where it most hurts
BBC: Ukraine drones hit St Petersburg gas terminal in Russia
REUTERS: Over 20,000 bpd Russian jet fuel exports in doubt after suspected drone attack
REUTERS: Russia's oil and gas budget revenue down 24% in 2023
This is clearly a war of attrition — not some “grey zone” conflict nor some cyber-defined battle. This is about how many men can Ukraine sacrifice versus how much economic damage and cannibalization can Russia stand. The introduction of drones, while revolutionary in its own right, doesn’t really change the macro decision-making elements surround the question both sides face: How long can I keep this up?
For those of us cheering on the Ukrainians (and our ranks are thinning), it is a good sign that they are now taking the fight to Russia’s energy-export infrastructure.
Why?
We’re talking one-third of Russia’s government revenue comes from energy exports.
5) The great warming of the North, the great unleashing of our frozen past
GUARDIAN: Arctic zombie viruses in Siberia could spark terrifying new pandemic, scientists warn
When the European conquerors came to the Americas half a millennia ago, they brought with them viruses to which they had already developed immunity but which represented novel pathogens to the locals. From America’s New Map:
Across the fifteenth through eighteenth centuries, Europe’s colonizing conquest of the New World drove a genocide among our Indigenous populations, wiping out 90 percent of their ranks in an historical blink of an eye (the first 150 years).
That all came about because of the huge time lag in interactions: thousands of years earlier humans migrated out of Eurasia and over to the New World via the land bridge across the Bering Straits and then existed in immunological division for all that time until reconnecting in the form of New World invaders. Amerindians were wiped out because they suddenly came into contact with diseases they were unfamiliar with and thus biologically unable to resist.
Fast forward to today and we have all these scientists voicing similar fears about “novel” viruses — the term meaning basically that humans and the virus have yet to be properly introduced. Climate change threatens to do that introducing in a big way, and that can turn out to be dangerous in a very big way.
And no, it’s not just Arctic situations that are warmed up, it’s also tropical venues like the Amazon where deeper human penetration (often to grow crops) risks such risky introductions.
6) With friends like these …
POLITICO: US rethinks gas exports, spooking Europe
THE HILL: America faces a looming LNG debacle
NYT: White House Said to Delay Decision on Enormous Natural Gas Export Terminal
As a rule, I am not a fan or the all-of-the-above argument when it comes to America’s domestic energy transition. The sooner we move down the de-carbonization chain from coal to oil to gas to renewables, the better. But I think it’s key to recognize that gas is a serious improvement over coal and oil, and, so, with America stepping up to that export capacity (now #1 in the world in terms of liquified natural gas [LNG]), we should not only take near-term economic advantage of that export capacity but use it to help the rest of the world — and especially our European friends — reduce their dependency on dirtier energies and/or nastier sources (like the Russians).
My guess here is that Biden is punting on this issue until after the elections, when he’ll come out for approving LNG export terminal developments and licenses. We shouldn’t let perfection be the enemy of better. LNG and natural gas in general are a real improvement and a reasonable transition for a lot of the world’s economies en route to renewables.
7) The other shoe just dropped on the Iran-Houthi connection
REUTERS: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say
The word delivered to Iran by Chinese diplomats:
"Basically, China says: 'If our interests are harmed in any way, it will impact our business with Tehran. So tell the Houthis to show restraint'," said one Iranian official briefed on the talks, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.
The broader framing:
While China has been Iran's biggest trading partner for the past decade, their trade relationship is lopsided.
Chinese oil refiners, for example, bought over 90% of Iran's crude exports last year, according to tanker tracking data from trade analytics firm Kpler, as U.S. sanctions kept many other customers away and Chinese firms profited from heavy discounts.
Iranian oil, though, only accounts for 10% of China's crude imports and Beijing has an array of suppliers that could plug shortfalls from elsewhere.
That is close to a monopsony: where you the seller are selling almost exclusively to a single buyer. That does not make you powerful but dependent.
Tehran’s proxies are messing with China’s sea lines of communication. Bound to trigger blowback.
8) The boo-hoo story signaling something much more stressing
NYT: As Switzerland’s Glaciers Shrink, a Way of Life May Melt Away
This story is worth checking out simply for the stunning drone shot of sheep following this mountainous path in the Swiss Alps.
The boo-hoo part is the usual storyline of a lost/losing way of life (sad story, but the world is full of them), while the real story is a profound altering of how freshwater circulates in Europe.
The subtitle captures it well:
Rising temperatures and retreating glaciers threaten Europe’s water tower, forcing local farmers to adapt and presaging larger troubles downstream.
The Swiss Alps are to Europe what the Tibetan Plateau is to East Asia: this water-tower like area from which snowpack and ice melt set in motion the head waters of all sorts of rivers that feed the wider region.
Switzerland has long been considered Europe’s water tower, the place where deep winter snows would accumulate and gently melt through the warmer months, augmenting the trickling runoff from thick glaciers that helped sustain many of Europe’s rivers and its ways of life for centuries.
Interesting geopolitical reality that both Switzerland and Tibet are these remote-but-central environmental players who, throughout history, have sought a certain above-it-all neutrality (respected in the case of Switzerland, not respected in the case of Tibet, annexed by China decades ago).
More evidence of how climate change is remapping our world.
9) To rise in economic power is to sink into sovereign debt
AXIOS: A Record You Don’t Want — Debt as share of GDP for select economies
Interesting chart:
Think about this pattern of indebtedness:
America rose and ran the show after WWII and has been fading (in a half-life sort of way) ever since.
Then Japan came to the fore, only to peak and decline.
Then China came to the fore, only to peak and begin its decline.
And, as a result of these similar, mirror-like journeys, all three have found themselves in serious debt.
To me, that’s not a bug but a feature of US-style globalization.
Just saying …
10) The double-edge sword of Hindu nationalism
NYT: Modi Opens a Giant Temple in a Triumph for India’s Hindu Nationalists
Exploiting a demographic dividend is no mean feat, as I say in America’s New Map:
That journey, even when successful, is a wild ride requiring a cohesive society and a strong state. But there really is no good alternative to making that all-or-nothing effort. If your nation fails to grab this historically unique opportunity, any demographic boom you experience is like a tree falling in the forest—unheard, unexploited, unproductive.
The worst fate in our world is being destabilized by globalization’s embrace while earning no long-term integration, for therein lies state failure.
Commensurate with that cohesive society and strong state? That tends to be a strong and burgeoning sense of nationalism, typically associated with the largest and thus defining identity. In India, that is clearly the Hindu identity.
So, no surprise, with a rising India, to spot rising Hindu nationalism. With such a trajectory, there is a profound need for civilizational and group identity “hand holds.”
Per this story, I spot one in the opening of this giant Hindu temple, which comes with a twisted origin story:
The temple inaugurated by the prime minister is on the disputed site of a centuries-old mosque destroyed in a Hindu mob attack that set a precedent of impunity in cases of violence against Muslims.
You could compare it to White America putting Mount Rushmore in sacred Lakota lands: a fabulous symbol of national identity to one side; a complete historical tragedy and insult to the other.
India’s rise is incredibly important to the future of the world system. Realistically, the outside world is going to have to forgive plenty as this rise is achieved. That is just the nature of the process.
11) Dragon Babies to the rescue!
FT: China hopes for ‘dragon babies’ as population decline gathers pace
The Year of the Dragon is prized in Chinese civilization, much like the Year of the Tiger (my sign). China is hoping for a mini-baby boom but is almost certainly going to be highly disappointed.
Here is the chart I want to highlight:
This is a hidden story told by Our World In Data, a site I used a lot in America’s New Map. The story of China’s plummeting fertility is commonly told as reflecting the One Child Policy, begun in 1980. Here’s how I put it in my book:
China’s demographic dividend was triggered by a radical decline in fertility. It took America eight decades (1844–1926) to lower fertility from six children per woman to three. China did it in a decade (1967–1978). History attributes that decline to Beijing’s infamous one-child policy, when, in truth, that edict only took effect in 1980, by which time China’s fertility crash was well underway. Tellingly, China’s fertility decline mirrored that of Taiwan across the same decades. Taipei had no such restrictive reproduction policy, suggesting that government policies mandating lower fertility are as ineffective as those promoting the opposite.
My sense has always been that Mao’s crazy policies across the 1960s drove that down-up-down fertility roller-coaster ride. What happened after that complimented one another: 1) mass urbanization; and 2) the One Child Policy. When you urbanize, children quickly transition from a family asset (hands to work the fields) to a family cost (mouths to feed, educations to fund).
12) The value of vaccines
REUTERS: Cameroon begins routine malaria shots in global milestone
Vaccines have been, without a doubt, the single greatest medical development of modern times.
As I noted in America’s New Map:
Humanity’s lengthening life span is both entirely unnatural and our most complete victory yet over our environment. In 1900, global life expectancy at birth stood at the same level (low thirties) it had maintained since the Roman Empire. Despite the twentieth century’s conflicts, human life expectancy doubled to seventy years by the year 2000. That stunning achievement was overwhelmingly enabled by the pervasive use of vaccines in early childhood. Talk about a buried headline.
Now comes this happy news:
Around 40 years in the making, the World Health Organization (WHO)-approved RTS,S vaccine developed by British drugmaker GSK is meant to work alongside existing tools such as bed nets to combat malaria, which in Africa kills nearly half a million children under the age of five each year.
I have had to take malaria pills several times in my life, and will soon be taking them on a trip to India. Malaria is still endemic across much of Asia and Africa, and, thanks to the disruptions of COVID and the efforts of anti-vaxxers, inoculations of all sorts have fallen by the wayside around the world, leading to a radical upsurge in early childhood diseases. The same has happened with the mosquito-borne malaria.
Local docs in Cameroon have great hope for this newly developed vaccine. As one clinic manager put it:
We are proud to have this programme in place because it will eradicate malaria in children aged six to 59 months."
Getting babies to age 5 on a reliable basis is crucial to triggering the demographic transition that is, in turn, critical to joining global value chains and triggering widespread economic development. So, it’s both a medical issue and an economic requisite.
And if they develop an adult vaccine for malaria? I will most definitely get it.