The superpower brand war rages on

Interpretation trumping action

Cover of Check First’s “Operation Overlord” report

Ask yourself: Which is of more importance to Russia? Actually conquering parts of Ukraine or finding international approval for the aggression? In which path lies real power?

Same for China on Taiwan: Is it more important for Beijing (or just Xi) to have Taiwan (at extreme cost) or to be recognized globally as having finally taken it back from its civil war opponent and its longtime Western enablers?

Same for the EU/NATO today: Is it more important to have these new members from the old Soviet bloc in their ranks or merely to deny them to Moscow?

Again, where does the actual power arise: taking on the responsibility and the cost and the headaches? Or in beating them?

If it is the latter, as I am arguing, then one goes all out to win the propaganda/brand war that ensues, for therein lies the true victory: not the act itself but what the success —once recognized by one’s opponents—says about you, the superpower. THAT is the real payoff for players who care SOLELY about their personal power.

Hong Kong served China’s needs better (foremost as a conduit of foreign direct investment from outside) before it was broken and tamed, but getting Hong Kong was more important for Beijing, thus the Golden Goose was sacrificed. HK now funnels less FDI into China — a lot less, and foreign companies are closing their headquarters there. In turns out that having Hong Kong means ruining it; it’s just that the global acceptance of the get mattered more to Beijing’s single-party regime.

H/T Randy Fullhart on a Heather Cox Richardson Substack today mentioning recent reports by internet watchdog Check First on how Russia is aggressively waging various cyber influence campaigns to weaken Western unity on Ukraine and to promote right-wing nationalism. Both use sly arguments that say, in effect, what Russia is doing is not wrong but a righteous expression of the same right-wing nationalism surging now in the West.

Putin’s message then, to the Western electorates, is basically Come on in! The water’s fine. You know you want to behave similarly.

From the “Operation Overlord” report:

This report exposes a large-scale, cross-country, multi-platform disinformation campaign designed to spread pro-Russian propaganda in the West, with clear indicators of foreign interference and information manipulation (FIMI). The narratives promoted by the actors are aligned with Russian interests, which is a hallmark of FIMI. At the time of writing, this operation is still ongoing.

Operation Overload's primary objective is to target fact-checkers, newsrooms, and researchers globally with the aim of depleting their resources and exploiting credible information ecosystems to disseminate the Kremlin’s political agenda.

The actors operate through a coordinated email campaign, orchestrated networks of Telegram channels, a network of inauthentic accounts on X (formerly Twitter), and an ecosystem of Russia-aligned websites, including the newly discovered Pravda2 network. A key feature of the operation involves flooding media organisations with anonymous emails containing links to fake content and anti-Ukraine narratives, particularly targeting France and Germany.