Throwing spaghetti against the wall

Which, of any of Trump's attack vectors, are going to stick?

With the torrent of stories presently coming out of DC, one is resigned to responding to the array versus trying to make sense out of it all. So, in no particular order, here are the strands of pasta I am watching slide down the wall right now.

Panama Canal

Trump’s case here is weak. China doesn’t control the canal; it just has a HK-based port-operations firm managing a holding-pen port on either side of the canal. The canal is suffering operational issues due to the drought conditions that linger across most of Central America and which become the new normal. So, the passage restrictions and higher costs … that’s happening to everybody. The US is the biggest canal user, and, on that basis, one figures Trump wants a deal (cost cutting) so that he can claim as victory. As for getting the Hong Kong company out of those two ports, maybe there’s some contractual trick that can forged to diminish that impression, but that’s all it will be (face-saving). Conversely, maybe there’s some new agreement between us and Panama about our prioritized access under crisis conditions — or some such. Overall, though, this is small beans.

Tariff wars with China, Canada, and Mexico

If I am any of those three, I take Trump on, knowing that’s probably the best path for ensuring that the Dems come back to rule Congress in 2026 — by which time the inflationary impact of this fairly useless fight has permeated everybody’s daily lives.

The alternative of caving in only seems likely to engender even more demands from Trump, plus, it is good local politics to stand firm in a rally-around-the-flag dynamic (check out Canada!). Trump is 23 months away from serious lame duck status (I know he’ll redefine that as well, but it will unfold nonetheless), so, it’s an easy call if I am any of the three.

China just hit a trillion dollar trade surplus last year, and that with only about 15% of its exports going to the US. It is ready for this fight. Yes, it will hurt, but it’s all relative and Xi has more levers to hide the pain.

Canada will be pulled right into the same inflationary pressures that the US will be, but, coming on the heels of the “51st state” jibes, Canadians are happy warriors on this subject and likely to remain so longer than the US public.

Mexico will be considerably harmed alright, but there Trump probably sees useful leverage regarding immigration, drug war, etc. The threat of escalated US military ops across the southern border is real and just too tempting for Trump not to try at some point, so Mexico is likely the key loser in this fight.

Lost in all of this is the alleged national security prompt that’s mostly identified with fentanyl smuggling, so there’s always that retreat position for Trump when things get bad and he doesn’t get what he wants elsewhere in the relationships: the administration can simply gin up some “landmark” agreement that purports to solve the issue.

The wider repercussions are more nerve-wracking with regard to either a serious diplomatic breakdown or an arm-twisting drill on re-casting the USMCA accord (NAFTA replacement from Trump 1.0). I can see some accelerated review happening before this goes too far and that process suspending the tariffs in the meantime, because that will be a good show and feel like some proof of a “win.”

Ukraine

This seems well in the works — if quietly. The 24-hours deadline is now a 100-days deadline, with the following deal shaping up as:

1. Ceasefire

2. No NATO for Ukraine

3. Yes EU for Ukraine (so, a split decision)

4. Ukraine loses what it has lost in land

5. Sanctions relief for Putin

6. US would be stand-up provider for military aid to Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

All completely plausible, my only gripe being NATO membership being denied, but that can be backtracked at the right downstream moment by a new US president. As “freezing” conflicts go, this is tolerable and Trump will get some consideration for “ending the biggest land war in Europe since WWII!” — his strong desire to match Obama’s peace Nobel.

Guyana as potential flashpoint?

Recall the Iraq-v-Kuwait-like scenario in which big and nasty Venezuela invades or sufficiently threatens much-smaller and suddenly oil-rich Guyana, claiming it as lost lands:

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In that post I spoke to the strategic logic of Guyana seeking some special status with the US as a long-term consideration vis-a-vis Venezuela. Recall the loose, seemingly crazy talk of Kuwait as the “51st state” and then later Iraq itself once we got stuck there. Similar concepts, even wilder, have been floated over the years WRT Taiwan. This vibe regularly pops up as a bold “solution” and I wouldn’t put it past Trump to jump on it under the right set of circumstances.

The logic on Guyana’s side is real: I am a small nation that needs protection and that would be the most supreme version of it — becoming US territory on some level.

So … if I’m Trump and I want my new 51-star American flag, this would be the splendid little war I would arrange to prove US hegemony over Latin America:

• Pick the fight with Venezuela

• Flaunt the support to Guyana

• Get the whole dynamic riled up

• Then announce the deal to tether Guyana to the US on some accession track.

Venezuela is the perfect, easy villain. It’s being supported by by all four of that “Eurasian Axis” we hear so much about (China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran), so a demonstrated win for the US and a clear loss for that quartet.

Do we have to go as far as toppling Maduro? Nah. Play it like the Kuwait scenario and not the post-9.11 variant.

For Trump himself, he achieves the incredible: growing the Union. Plus, all that lovely, beautiful oil offshore — so, it dovetails with drill baby drill!

USAID “dies”

I spent a couple of years working as a consultant with USAID’s Africa Bureau in the mid-1990s, and have tremendous respect for the organization even as one must admit the agency’s many bureaucratic flaws.

Musk’s name-calling is shameful but fits the pitchfork-and-torches pattern he employs in riling up support to dis-establish this “criminal” organization full of “Marxists.”

Does Musk strike you as off his meds with that sort of bizarro language? Yeah.

Is it sad that such nonsense sells well to the base? Deeply.

But the notion of State re-absorbing USAID … that has been around since the agency was made independent in the early 1960s by Kennedy. So, an easy, highly visible win for MAGA/DOGE that far too few will protest. Plus, there is the logic of America using its foreign aid more selfishly to advance its interests vis-a-vis competitors in America First mode.

All of that will feel like small beans compared to the diplomatic victory China will claim as “development champion of the Global South” now that America has renounced foreign aid! But Trump will love the optics and so I expect it to happen.

Israel

As noted earlier here:

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I expect Israel to pretend to be honoring some sort of ceasefire with Hamas until the right trolley car comes down the track and the IDF can hop on and get back to hunting throughout Gaza with impunity.

The fact that the IDF is pretty aggressively taking the fight to the West Bank in the meantime indicates, to me at least, that Israel is willing to signal the end of both Gaza and the West Bank as an inevitability so that a downstream deal may be struck to truly erase the former while “allowing” the latter to survive in some papered-up deal that freezes things for a stretch.

Basically a one down and one to go strategy.

Yes, I know that PG monarchies have signaled the sacred goal of Palestinian self rule in Gaza but I don’t see that ever coming back — just not in Israel’s long-term interests. If I am Israel and my mind is made up, then I consistently threaten regional war with Iran (or maybe just go ahead and do the strikes targeting the nuclear reach currently revived there) as diplomatic top cover for my continued demotion of Gaza.

For Israel, there’s no point in waiting. Trump will back them completely and they’re on a roll. Plus, the clock is ticking.

The Musk effect on USG operations

Trump’s willingness to let Musk and Co. run wild throughout the federal government WRT fiscal matters and processes is truly stunning. Do I expect it to ultimately backfire? Yeah, I guess I do. But with the Republican-controlled Congress acting such the lapdogs (with Johnson as the all-time weakest Speaker), the wild cards here are plentiful and scary.

I think already the Musk effect feels like some nearly perfectly dreamt-up and executed covert takeover of the USG by hostile powers. If I am China or Russia or Iran or North Korea, I find this whole thing fabulous and beyond my wildest dreams: America in total self-destruct mode! For as long as this process descends into Constitutional chaos into which the courts must intervene, I don’t want to disturb this process whatsoever, instead, just amplifying as best I can via clandestine social media ops.

Taiwan

The tariff fight with the US likely defines 2025 and logically bleeds into 2026, creating just enough domestic uncertainty inside China to stay Xi’s hand on Taiwan, which, by all important-date-driven analyses is slated to unfold as a military scenario launched by China in 2027 (the PLA’s 100th birthday).

Say the US-China decoupling has proceeded that much further by then, with the Dems retaking Congress and putting Trump to all manner of investigative “torches.” At that point, I could see Beijing feeling that the 2027 environment is just too good to pass up.

Git ’r done!

At that point, with Ukraine frozen and Taiwan finally resolved in China’s favor, all this nonsense about WWIII already being underway would settle into a long-term US-China competition for influence and “camps” around the world, with Beijing remaining highly incentivized and Washington highly distracted.