Uncharted territory

Ukraine has taken Russia and the world into new superpower terrain

First off, now I do believe that Iran was caught completely by surprise when Hamas launched the 7 October incursion into Israel. I had strong doubts any subordinate power could truly keep that sort of information from its military sponsor, but, apparently, that’s exactly what Kyiv accomplished vis-a-vis Washington. That doesn’t mean nobody on our side had an inkling but that we were, as a whole, legitimately taken by surprise.

We tend to underestimate the Ukrainian military and defense industry, forgetting that both are legit top-ten players in this world. This isn’t Belarus and we’re definitely talking a cut-above Taiwan (more like a top 25) vis-a-vis China. So, outmatched, for sure, but capable of putting up quite the fight.

The surprise part of Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region is not the aggressor’s capability, because, relative to the defenses in place (basically, non-existent), it really was a cake walk for Ukrainian forces to execute (the task of then holding the captured territory being a totally different matter). Kyiv clearly wanted to change the narrative and did so.

My first thought, however (and it was a common one), was that this was an act of desperation, basically Zelensky’s Battle of the Bulge (and yes, I do recognize the awfulness of that comparison given Putin’s “de-nazification” propaganda). And it still may proceed down that inevitable path of temporary-success-segueing-into-crushing-defeat.

But, then again, maybe not.

I mean, it’s a far different story than WWII because Ukraine’s rear is not being chewed to pieces by an advancing foe (Stalin’s Red Army) but is being dutifully supplied with material by the world’s largest military alliance and the world’s clear military Leviathan (capable of this, and backstopping Israel against an Axis of Resistance, and loading up both Taiwan and our regional allies in Asia vis-a-vis the Chinese threat).

Thus, what ultimately sustains Ukraine is a sense that there’s a legit chance it can still survive.

[I resist the temptation to place a Dumb and Dumber reference here.]

Proximately, the incursion was designed to force relief elsewhere along the front by compelling Russia to shift forces, which seems to be happening.

Ultimately, however, the incursion was designed to nullify any sense of a Rubicon being crossed by true Ukrainian forces (not some ragtag bunch of side-switching ethnic Russians engaging in performative incursions) actually taking the fight to Russian territory — up to now considered a true sanctuary as in, Who in their right mind invades a neighboring superpower capable of nuking it?

That’s the really interesting part here: the transgression against that seemingly inviolable ruleset.

There has long been a sense of a clear ruleset on this subject: Nuclear superpowers don’t attack one another directly, meaning homelands are off-limits, as are uniform troops. It’s okay for a proxy to directly attack the other side’s troops (that is the nature of proxy wars like Korea and Vietnam), even when using weapons supplied by the opposing superpower.

So far, so good. Until this incursion, the basic ruleset remained unchallenged.

But going into Russia proper?

By all previous definitions and scenarios and plans, this is the start of WWIII — except here that does not seem the case … for now.

And that’s the fascinating part.

Why hasn’t this triggered WWIII? Why isn’t Moscow pulling out all the stops and nuking Ukraine for doing EXACTLY the sort of thing that having nukes is supposed to prevent: namely, a direct attack on the homeland by a proxy backed by an opposing nuclear power?

Now, admittedly, there’s a splash of grey here. If America’s European Command is doing this with US troops, that’s a flat-out invasion and Russia would be within its superpower rights to not only defend but strike back similarly in a severe escalation (hard to do here because we are so removed from the battlefield and yet there’s always Poland …).

We may still see that sort of escalation by Moscow, although I suspect not because the complications of that probably still intimidate Putin. Faced with that level of strategic uncertainty (I have no idea how this would end!), the first order of business is simply to repel the incursion, claim all the propaganda “victory” one can to popularly justify the ongoing fight, and then get back to business on pounding Ukraine proper.

Still, if that’s the way this goes down, that’s nonetheless a stunner on many levels.

Imagine the counter-factual: Russia supplying Mexico to cross over into Texas to force US troops from continuing their ongoing assault of its neighbor over [INSERT REASON HERE]. Pretty hard to imagine that NOT escalating wildly.