Why China and the US don't need to go to war

The Thucydides Trap belongs to a pre-nuclear, pre-globalization mythology

Some analysis I penned for the Beijing-based Knowfar Institute for Strategic and Defence Studies during my stint as their first ever visiting research fellow (2015-2018).

It is part of a larger report I did on the concept of “splendid little wars” and rising power. I posted the rest of that report weeks ago. I now post this section on its own.

What made me think to do this right now?

Chinese foreign minister statement recently that “China-U.S. cooperation is no longer optional but rather imperative for each other and the world at large.”

I don’t doubt that sentiment whatsoever. It doesn’t preclude fierce competition with China. It just reflects China’s realization that it needs globalization and globalization needs it — both very true.

So here’s the segment on the Thucydides Trap concept pushed by Harvard professor Graham Allison. Knowfar wanted my take on it back then: as in, do you guys really believe this to be true?