You might be a super aged society if ...?

Confronting the inevitability that is demographic aging

Source

I grew up in Southwest Wisconsin in a very rural area, so when the country comedian Jeff Foxworthy had a cultural moment with his “You might be a redneck if … ?” jokes, a great proportion of those jibes hit home, my favorite being something along the lines of “If you have five cars parked in your front yard and none of them work … you might be a redneck.” It was funny because there was a lot of truth to it, and since Foxworthy presented himself as a redneck himself, it didn’t offend.

So, as the Global North moves toward super-aged status as societies, I often wonder what the equivalent observations (if not actual jokes) would be. As we all recognize, jokes about the elderly tend to poke fun at common stereotypes and experiences associated with old age, like forgetfulness, longevity, hearing loss, and financial matters related to aging.

Source

But, if we broad-framed that a bit, there are a lot of things we can observe about an aged society.

First, from America’s New Map, some definitions and trends:

The UN defines a rapidly aging society as featuring an elder share (sixty- five and older) of 7 to 13 percent. An aged society sits at 14 to 19 percent, while a super-aged society tops 20 percent. Until recently, virtually all societies featured an elder share below 5 percent. With a birth rate of 1.7—well below the replacement rate of 2.1—America will be super-aged by 2030, when the last Boomers (me included) reach retirement age. At that point, the elderly will outnumber children in America. Still, compared to other developed economies, we are doing well.

Between now and 2050, demographic aging will occur at faster rates throughout Europe (already significantly older than America) and East Asia (now aging at a rapidity never seen in human history). The United States took three-quarters of a century to shift from rapidly aging to aged; East Asia now accomplishes that in a quarter-century and achieves super-aged status just a few years after we do. In 2050, China’s almost 500 million elders will outnumber America’s entire population (400 million) and its elder dependency ratio (elders per working age population) will zoom past ours.

So, some basics characteristics of a super-aged society as we are coming to know them:

• Lowered fertility

• Lowered death rate

• Higher life expectancy (80+ is the norm)

• Median (average) and mean (most common) age rises for society as a whole (medians in the 40s and 50s compared to the teens and 20s across much of the Global South)

• Length of life in retirement more than 20 years

• Total population decrease

• Elders outnumber kids (suggesting the joke, You might be a super-aged society if adult diapers outsell baby diapers! — a real Rubicon crossed by Japan years ago and one America is described as passing now or not that long ago)

• Rise of the “# is the new #” mindset (e.g., “70 is the new 50”)

• Ratio of workers to elders decreases

• Elder support systems (housing, care, medical) are more heavily burdened, sapping household income when families try to take care of their own and exacerbating fiscal pressures when the government has to step in

• Decreased inter-generational transfer of wealth (because of families and individuals being forced to spend down their wealth, primarily due to medical costs, in the last years of elders’ lives)