[REWIND] Trump's top-cover strategy becomes clear
The Iran call I made in February
Top cover: Air support for ground troops, such as fighter planes flying at high altitudes to protect lower-flying military forces; support given by a leader to their subordinates, such as when a boss keeps interruptions away so their team can focus on their work
When the Biden administration ranked the infamous CRINK cabal (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) that we paranoids in America have determined are all anti-US in some secret, blood-oath, unified strategy (of sorts), it’s primary focus was on Russia, then Iran, then China, and finally North Korea. Russia led over Ukraine (actual warfare), Iran was second for its actual hybrid warfare and the ever-present danger of the “wider regional war(!)” and the nuke fear, China was third for overall competition (especially in high tech), and North Korea was … still North Korea (at best, still just pathetic Scotty to Dr. Evil).
Now, the Trump administration re-jiggers that list of priorities.
Between SECDEF Hegseth signaling the outlines of a deal favorable to Putin, VP Vance dressing down NATO, SECTREAS Bessent asking Ukraine for mineral rights, and the State Department working on both a Trump-Putin summit AND Riyadh-based direct talks with Russia about Ukraine — with no Ukraine(!), it’s pretty clear that Vlad is getting out of the doghouse at virtually no penalty and with his winnings intact.
On that basis alone, you’d almost have to say that Russia is being released from the CRINK constellation, which is a big deal.
The rationale is far from nutty: Russia is a nuclear power and it’s super-dangerous to be involved supporting a war on its border that features attacks against its homeland. No matter who’s in the wrong there, it’s just reckless to be so engaged.
[And, yeah, the same argument can be applied quite sensibly to China-v-Taiwan.]
It’s not a bad argument: imagine writing the history decades from now about how West and Russia got into some nuclear exchange over the fate of Ukraine. When we look back and think Czechoslovakia 1938, we feel ashamed at the prospect, but, if you look ahead to the Limited Nuclear War of 2026, then you think to yourself, this is nuts!
And that’s where Trump’s head is at, and, like it or not, it’s defensible on strategic grounds. Blowing up the world over Ukraine does not compute. Once you radically accept that judgment, you start saying things like Hegseth. You may not like it, but the logic is there.
Pulling back the lens a bit, this is how America gets out of these fixes on a regular basis: Admin A starts an intervention and successor Admin B pulls out. Dictators like Putin can’t do that as a rule, but democracies can, and it’s a good thing — almost a super power of ours.
Are we rewarding Putin? We are certainly recognizing Putin and Russia for what they are, and that’s realism in a nutshell — stripping out the norms and simply asking yourself, does this fight make sense for me? We voted Trump in and Trump says no — case closed.
Does Trump have a thing for strongmen? Yes, he does, but that’s irrelevant to the calculation. Ukraine doesn’t rank, so this war does not warrant the entailed risks. Again, that’s an entirely defensible position, whatever your sense of Putin is.
What’s the gain for the US?
Hmm.
Not quite clear what Russia will help us with, other than maybe standing by for Israel to hit Iran, which is now a much bigger priority. That may be good enough for the time being because Moscow would be the only serious complication potentially coming to Tehran’s military rescue.
Now, on to the real show …
Trump’s talk about Gaza is diplomatic top cover in the extreme: so wacked and so wicked in its tone that it obscures the underlying reality: it’s go-time for Greater Israel, as far as Trump is concerned. Compared to the idea of America taking over Gaza, letting Netanyahu’s killing-it-slowly strategy play out seems quite reasonable (Thank God we dodged that bullet!).
It's go time for Greater Israel
From the river to the sea, radical acceptance of what inevitably will be
Dodging bullets is a real thing for Trump and his sense of personal mission: very much like Reagan’s conversion to arms control following his near-death assassination-attempt experience, Trump believes God has spared him for big things, and, for a Christian MAGA base, Israel is #1, which makes Iran target #1 for Trump 2.0.
Follow me here: Trump’s top cover for Netanyahu allows the Gaza Elimination strategy to proceed. That strategy ultimately forces an Iranian response on some level (direct or via proxies), so why not plan for your own preemptive strike per the stand-by prevent-Iran’s-nukes rationale?
Israel's desired regional ending-of-state
Regime change in Iran is the proximate/ultimate/only solution
By sidelining Putin from the CRINK momentum (We’re friends again!), you’re certainly not going to see China step into that fray on its own, not when it will get Iran’s oil no matter who’s in power. And, with the heavyweights so neutralized, NorKo matters not, leaving Tehran on its own against the combined military might of America and Israel, with the latter on a military roll these past months and Trump offering blank-check support.
A big take-down-triggering military campaign against Iran’s nuclear capabilities and infrastructure … that is plenty of top cover for Gaza’s elimination.
So, where does China now rank in our list?
With Iran now #1 and Russia off the chart, China is #2 — the longer and more directly bilateral struggle with the US. Here, Trump is signaling like crazy with the State Department’s removal of our longstanding diplomatic statement regarding non-support for Taiwan’s independence.
That is a big deal — seriously.
You want to get Beijing’s attention and nerves jangling as you move toward trade negotiations, that is a great way to do it. I would expect more such signaling, even “crazy” talk about Taiwan as the 51st state (a bizarre [or is it?] notion that’s been floating out there for a long time — at least since 1994).
I mean, if you really want to spook China, talk about Taiwan joining the US in some manner. The equivalent would be Cuba joining China — whaaaaaaaat!
Again, top cover.
As for little old NorKo?
The solution set there has long been nuking-up the peninsula, either with NATO-like “sharing” of nuclear weapons or simply okaying South Korea’s reach (maybe Japan’s too).
Again, if you want China on its back foot, this is how you do it — lead with hard power and threaten worse.
So, to sum up:
What was a CRINK priority list that used to read RCINK under Biden, is now an ICNK re-ordering.
You can track the priority by the “crazy recklessness” of the diplomatic top cover being voiced: America taking Gaza … that’s top for anybody’s list. No NATO membership for Ukraine … clearly, Russia’s off the list. America support Taiwan’s independence … that’s at least #2 on our list.
You get the picture. It’s a pretty clear reordering, and it’s not crazy — despite the rhetoric being delivered.
