Sunday Cutdown XXX (a) 22 June 2024

Clearing my inbox of stories I want to document

NOTE: Just too many stories this week saved into my mailbox, so once again double-parting the Sunday Cutdown over the weekend: Part A today, Part B tomorrow.

1) It happens to the best, it happens to the rest

WAPO: As climate change imperils Taliban’s shift from opium, impact could be felt worldwide

The story here: Taliban wants to get off poppy productions, but climate change is making that nigh impossible, as almost nothing else will grow in the country’s harshening clime.

Projected outcome: World gets a lot more heroine trafficked.

This is an important aspect to keep in mind with climate change’s increasing devastation of lower latitudes: it’s not just a question of who’s put on the move poleward out of desperation; it’s also about what those left behind will end up having to embrace so as to survive. The willful conflation of these dynamics by Northerners provides them with an easy out — as in, I’d be happy to deal with your climate change ONCE we get this crime situation under control!

Understand: everything we’re seeing today suggests higher and higher estimates of damages and cost and extremities.

As I argued in America’s New Map:

Today, our estimates of likely northbound environmental refugees are based on the historical experience of ecological disasters occurring on a national or regional basis. To be realistic, we should expect that the simultaneity of world-spanning disasters associated with climate change will redefine our sense of how much pain populations can endure before they emigrate. In most cases, the traditional response of moving within the country or to a neighboring one will not be sufficient, meaning we should expect the unexpected when it comes to the poleward migration of Middle Earthers who feel they have no other choice when it comes to their long-term survival.

Climate change is making desirable paths of economic development (or just subsistence) too hard to pursue, inevitably pushing more people into less desirable paths — to include criminality. That will foster mass violence, which will paint those lower latitudes as being “beyond the pale” in terms of Northern efforts at stabilization.

When that lower-latitude reality gets to be too much to endure, people will head north in ways both non-threatening (climate migrants) and more disturbing (either fleeing or extending criminal networks). All of that will get mixed up in the minds of Northerners, many of whom will conveniently conflate migration with criminality with “invasion” — when, in fact, climate change will be the ultimate driver.

Ironically then, all these North-facing negative dynamics will allow politicians of a certain stripe to bury the lede (cause) and emphasize the symptoms as reason enough to step back from this “crazy world,” batten down the hatches, and shoot them bastards on sight!

In other words, climate change will foster criminality across lower latitudes as a desperate response, allowing the North to embrace these dynamics as the “real struggle” when they are nothing more than an excuse to refuse dealing with the underlying reality.

Expect to see a lot of this.

2) From the military geniuses who brought you the Maginot Line

DEFENSE NEWS: Small drones will soon lose combat advantage, French Army chief says

EURASIAN TIMES: Russia Begins Testing ‘Intercept’ Anti-UAV Cartridges To Combat Kyiv’s Kamikaze Drones

TIMES OF INDIA: Russia's New Drone Can Carry Commandos; Fresh Headache For Ukraine Amid Battle Blows

NAVAL NEWS: Breaking Down The U.S. Navy’s ‘Hellscape’ In Detail

France’s military chief is convinced that the offensive strengths of small drones will invariably be overcome by advances in countering tactics and defenses. Thus, warfare won’t really change because larger platforms will continue to rule.

The man clearly has assets to protect here:

The general said he doesn’t consider that the war in Ukraine calls into question the French choice of a maneuvering army built around medium armor, with a focus on speed and mobility. The vehicles that the Army is introducing as part of the Scorpion program -- the Griffon, Serval and Jaguar – can be equipped with either active or passive protection, even if a strong emphasis of mine protection means they’re “quite massive.”

We are, according to this general, only experiencing a “moment in history” and not a turning point.

Already, this general says, 75% of all drones deployed end up being shot down, ignoring the cost argument (very expensive defenses to shoot down very cheap and disposable attackers). To me, this argument is like saying that only 25% of bullets actually hit opposing troops.

Thanks for the heads up, buddy!

Warfare has always involved stunning amounts of waste.

The same article notes the following:

First-person view drones currently carry out about 80% of the destruction on the front line in Ukraine, when eight months ago those systems weren’t present, according to Schill [our top French general]. The general said that situation won’t exist 10 years from now, and the question could be asked whether that might already end in one or two years.

Bold argument, this guy.

What I see: we are in the middle of a very rapid arms race here on drones, and, yes, over time, defense tends to win, which here will mean that, while drones can thwart an enemy’s advance, it can’t really conquer back (because, again, defense wins).

Understand: that’s not a return to the old ways of big platforms slugging it out via maneuver warfare. Instead, that’s movement toward a new and profound form of battlefield stalemate, which is why Ukraine feels so WWI-ish.

It will collectively take us years — perhaps even decades (but that seems too long) — to come to this realization as we race along in our competing prototyping and mass production of small drones. And yes, those small drones may well someday soon be eclipsed by large drones (me, I don’t see it), but none of that would constitute a withdrawal into the past of big-platform war.

Indeed, the pace of experimentation right now is leaving all that platform-centric warfare in the dust, meaning this French general has outlived his times.

Pity.

3) Putin has sold his soul to the Chinese

THE HILL: Russia is now a Chinese colony — while still foolishly dreaming of empire

An argument I made in America’s New Map and frequently make here):

Putin’s empty threat of “damage” showed he did not understand how vulnerable a supply-rich-but-demand-poor Russia was to a disconnection campaign. The 97 percent of the world economy that is not Russia does not depend on that state’s small consumer market. Given sufficient cause, Europe decided to radically reduce its energy dependence on Russia—no matter the short-term pain—thus shattering the illusion that it needed Russia more than the other way around. Instead of reclaiming greatness, Putin merely accelerated Russia’s reduction to China’s economic vassal, the best example being the heavily discounted price Beijing now pays for Moscow’s oil. Putin’s miscalculation dramatically boosted the institutional appeal of both NATO and the EU while puncturing the myth of Russia’s military and cyber prowess. These are all wins as far as America is concerned—at the bargain price of supplying Ukraine’s military.

This piece makes all the same arguments and makes them well:

It’s often said that Putin has effectively transformed his country into a vassal of China. That’s true, but Russia’s relationship with its much more powerful neighbor to the south is more accurately termed colonial. Colonies are locally administered territories that are subordinate to the political and economic priorities set by foreign powers. Colonies are not fully sovereign, inasmuch as they don’t make the decisions that determine their fate. Seen in this light, Putin’s Russia is as much a colony of China as medieval Muscovy was a colony of the Mongol Empire.

Very Old School but essentially correct. More from the article:

Putin has transformed Russia into China’s raw-materials supplier and home for millions of Chinese expats. Small wonder that China has produced mapsof Russia’s Far East with Chinese names for (still) Russian cities.

This is why I argue in my book that Russia’s devolution as an empire is only at the halfway mark — so to speak:

Its strength defined in natural resources, Russia nonetheless plays the weakest hand. Given its vast Arctic holdings, climate change remains more economic opportunity than threat. But Russia’s depopulation bodes poorly for its ability to absorb large flows of immigrants without a nationalistic backlash. Having been de-globalized over Ukraine, Russia is more prey than predator so long as Putin rules. Post-Putin, a Russian regime seeking global reentry would be wise to play the EU, India, and China off one another to avoid becoming too captured by any one suitor. In the event of state failure, Russia’s climate opportunity conceivably results in its partition into successor states crafted and captured by those intervening superpowers.

Simply put, I don’t see Russia-the-decrepit-empire surviving this century. To me it’s not a question of if but when.

This fine article captures Russia’s ever-present existential crisis: it is a collection of resource-rich colonies that can only be kept together by empire. That requirement has consistently forced Moscow into imperialism (get them before they get you, or as V.I. Lenin so eloquently put it: “Who whom?” [k-TOW, kah-VO]) as a survival mechanism. Thus, when it fails, Russia falls apart.

Part 1 was the collapse of the Soviet Empire. Part 2 followed quickly after with the fall of the Soviet Union. Part 3, the collapse of the old Russian Empire, is happening before our every eyes — just in slow-motion.

4) Add the Greeks to the list of mass killers of migrant

BBC: Greek coastguard threw migrants overboard to their deaths, witnesses say

The roll call of European countries discovered to be willing to kill migrants in numbers continues to grow:

The Greek coastguard has caused the deaths of dozens of migrants in the Mediterranean over a three-year period, witnesses say, including nine who were deliberately thrown into the water.

The nine are among more than 40 people alleged to have died as a result of being forced out of Greek territorial waters, or taken back out to sea after reaching Greek islands, BBC analysis has found.

The Greek coastguard told our investigation it strongly rejects all accusations of illegal activities.

We showed footage of 12 people being loaded into a Greek coastguard boat, and then abandoned on a dinghy, to a former senior Greek coastguard officer. When he got up from his chair, and with his mic still on, he said it was "obviously illegal" and "an international crime".

The Greek government has long been accused of forced returns - pushing people back towards Turkey, where they have crossed from, which is illegal under international law.

But this is the first time the BBC has calculated the number of incidents which allege that fatalities occurred as a result of the Greek coastguard's actions.

The 15 incidents we analysed - dated May 2020-23 - resulted in 43 deaths. The initial sources were primarily local media, NGOs and the Turkish coastguard.

We will continue to be confronted with more and more of this sort of evidence, thanks to the West’s free press (thank God).

Eventually, state integration is the answer. Move that southern border more south. Wield that soft power.

Or just keep up the killing with modern-day Einsatzgruppen.

After all, killing “vermin” really isn’t a crime, right?

5) “Unbearable” in a rich country = emigration from a poor one

There are many things wrong with this picture

GUARDIAN: ‘It’s unbearable’: in ever-hotter US cities, air conditioning is no longer enough

This is the emerging reality of air conditioning not being enough for the usually vulnerable populations among us, meaning climate change becomes a routine killer of the poor and infirm.

“The home environment can actually be a substantial risk in and of itself,” said Jaime Madrigano, a public health researcher with Johns Hopkins University. “We find, during extreme heat events, that more people die in their homes than in other types of places. They’re not making it to the hospital.”

The threat is insidious:

“It’s almost hotter inside than outside,” reported one participant, who said she still got an $800 energy bill. Another participant described being “just overwhelmed” and taking showers to stay cool. “I can see how it’s going to be in years to come,” he added.

Understand, as the temp rises, ACs need to work exponentially harder to keep someone cool.

And yes, this is a White privilege/non-White penalty systematically at work here — a clear product of past institutional racism living on in our present and future:

Extreme heat disproportionately affects communities of color.

Black and Hispanic communities, in particular, are more likely to live in urban heat islands, where asphalt traps more heat than greener, typically wealthier neighborhoods. The disparity is a legacy of decades of redlining and other racist housing policies. People at higher risk of indoor heat also “tend to have fewer resources to be able to pay for things like air conditioning or fans”, said Hoque, and these factors have serious public health implications: in New York City, according to state data about last year’s record heat, Black residents are twice as likely to die of heat than their white counterparts.

You can blow that argument up to a global level and you’re basically capturing the North-South disparity that will define inter-regional tensions this century.

Eventually, our growing sense of shame and inequality has to motivate us to do better, yes?

6) Follow the money

CITI GROUP: SUPPLY CHAIN FINANCING — Building Resilience as the New Definition of “Global” Emerges

Interesting bit of analysis that confirms my impressions of how things are unfolding in this domain:

Today, amidst the backdrop of transformative technological innovations, increasing resilience is the clear and resounding call. We see nearly every country and company focused on security — be it food, water, energy, cyber, financial, or operational security. And consequently, they’re reconfiguring supply chains to meet the demands of customers and other stakeholders. It took too long but we’ve all woken up to the fact that concentrating the sourcing or production of any good — let alone essential goods — in one part of the world can have dire consequences.

A bit negatively stated, but correct.

The positive take: China’s demographic dividend is largely played out and now it no longer makes sense to extend value chains maximally there to exploit that cheaper labor because it’s no longer sufficiently cheaper.

But yeah, if you want to make it sound more patriotic, say you’re doing it for the good of the nation.

The subsequent, more sophisticated take:

Increased focus on resilience and investments in supply chains are creating diversified economies. Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are early examples of this in the Indo-Pacific. Elsewhere, in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and others are undergoing their own transformations as they look to diversify from oil. We’re also seeing countries and companies diversifying their supply chains in specific sectors. This is particularly evident in Mexico as a result of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Citi has been supporting clients seeking to reduce risk and increase efficiencies through nearshoring in Mexico. In some cases, it’s North America-based automakers bringing supply chains closer to home. In other cases, it’s European and Asian companies moving closer to their end-consumers in North America.

All that says is that nobody smart wants to have their global connectivity too narrowly defined. Not really any different from what most of us have learned over the past three decades — namely, relying on one source of income is risky, so hedge your bets and seek a portfolio of revenue streams because shit happens on a regular basis.

A bit more sophisticated:

Diversification is creating new trade corridors. Brazil is trading more with India and China than it is with Argentina. The Middle East is now more connected to Asia than Europe. And those connections will be further strengthened by a proposed economic corridor connecting the Middle East to India. Nearly 30% of multinationals surveyed for this year’s report indicated they were pursuing a “China Plus One” strategy as they build more resilience, with Vietnam and Thailand being the primary countries named for expansion plans.

Still, understand this last point is simply the business world recognizing the demographic dividend shifting from China to SE Asia and next India, ultimately followed by the Middle East and Africa.

There is stunning predictability in all of this when you broad frame it with demographic trends.

7) A new superpower cooperation mechanism

THE HILL: A ‘Concert’ for a new era: American power and the multipolar challenge

There is a glorious mythology that says all the world’s problems can be solved if only a collection of the right elder White males can get together and hash it all out — to wit, the enduring image of the Concert of Europe in the 1800s following the Napoleonic Wars.

[A sad corollary: What did the Founding Fathers say about a subject they NEVER encountered across their painfully narrow existences?]

I mean, all the Concert of Europe got us in the long run was two world wars and a Cold War, so it was fabulous right?

Come on now, that’s not fair. It also got us Peak Worldwide European Imperialism that century, so let’s not skimp on the praise. Europe got really rich, am I right? And the rest of the world got … well, opium and other cool things that elevated their existence.

But I tease too much …

The real point of this article is spot on:

Imagine, if you will, a world in which the rules and institutions of global governance actually reflected the underlying distribution of power on the world stage. In such a world, the major powers wouldn’t be locked in a struggle for outdated ideologies or clinging to an order built for a bygone era. Instead, they would cooperate to manage competition, prevent conflict and address pressing global issues that threaten all nations.

Nice idea, but we are clearly not there at the moment:

The current international order demonstrably fails this test. The material base of international politics is undeniably multipolar. Great power competition, multi-alignment and the rise of the Global South are defining features of the 21st century. Yet the institutional superstructure — the UN Security Council and the postwar order’s attendant institutions — remains anchored in the past.

This disjuncture between power and governance is a major source of global disorder. The Security Council, designed for a bygone era of great power consensus, struggles to address contemporary challenges due to its veto-wielding permanent members.

So, how can we bridge this gap?

Cue a modern Concert of Something.

Diagnosis correct, solution … better than what we have now, to be sure.

Real positive takeaway here: WWIII, Cold War, Containment … these are not answers for today but relics from last century.

After decades of enabling its rise, America now lives in a multipolar world but is deeply uncomfortable with that reality, thus we — in our painfully geriatric leadership cohort — reach for inappropriate tools from the past.

Is the answer reaching back even farther in history?

Meh!

We clearly need to get more Kissingerian, meaning horse-trading across domains/issue areas versus this idiotic “separate lanes” approach of the last few decades.

America wants to win every race — every lane, compromising nowhere.

I know, the Trumpian fantasy.

That just doesn’t work anymore, meaning we need a new sense of realism that looks nothing like the one we thought we embraced in the Cold War.

My definition of that realism: three big structural changes (climate, demographics, global middle class) reconfiguring our world and forcing North-South integration.

Plenty of horse trading to be done across those vectors.

We just need to break out of this East-West balance-of-power fixation.

Our competition with Russia and China is not centered in E Europe or E Asia but across the Global South.

8) Let me count the ways

I’m pretty sure that guy, if he’s working in Texas, is breaking state law.

REUTERS: How US industries deal with extreme heat

A fascinating data dump:

Construction: Work slows at construction projects. What usually takes two days can take three or four as builders take breaks, estimates Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. Changes could include shifting the workday earlier. Slowing projects could also hit the companies that sell supplies, but the impact to the likes of Home Depot (HD.N), opens new tab and Lowe's (LOW.N), opens new tab is likely limited because builders buy in advance and the projects are not canceled, Hogan added. And such retailers see demand for air conditioners and fans.

Crude oil: Oil refineries are geared to withstand high air temperatures, but efficiency drops. Financial-services firm Macquarie Group estimates extreme weather costs the oil industry between 1.5% and 2% of refining throughput a year. "Temperatures matter a lot," said Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie. Refiners in hot climates limit time workers are outdoors, set up hydration stations and move work shifts earlier in the day, to cooler hours. Austin Lin, a former refinery worker and now an analyst at energy consultant Wood Mackenzie, said he would organize work so arriving contractors could immediately start projects, without waiting for assignments or briefings. In extreme heat, around 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43 degrees Celsius), workers can only spend about 30 minutes of the hour working and need regular breaks to stay safe.

Retail: Retailers may see more demand for shorts and other clothing that works well in the heat, in addition to fans and air conditioners. One of the most significant changes in retail for high-heat situations involves delivery of items ordered online. Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab says it adjusts routes on hot days to give drivers more time to cool off and offers drivers beverage coolers in vans and water-filled sleeves that keep temperatures down. The Teamsters union, meanwhile, is using extreme heat to rally workers, saying unions can secure better protection.

Transportation: Heat makes travel harder. Airplane wings don't generate as much lift in heat and flights stuck on the tarmac have been reported with triple-digit-degree F temperatures inside. Railroads may limit train speed over concerns heat will warp tracks and damage engines and electrical components.

Manufacturing and warehousing: Companies with huge buildings often condition the air with systems that are less costly than the air-conditioning used in homes and offices. Fans to drive out hot air, mist to cool work environments and plenty of available water are top responses. Spirit AeroSystems (SPR.N), opens new tab, which makes plane parts for Boeing (BA.N), opens new tab, says its water-cooled system keeps maximum temperatures in its factories in the low 80s F, and there is no impact to production.

Agriculture: It would take weeks of prolonged heat to reduce yields of recently planted corn and soy crops in the U.S. Midwest, especially with beneficial rains forecast in coming days, analysts say. Modern row-crop agriculture requires few workers in the fields for planting and newer tractor cabs are air-conditioned, mitigating human risk. But in California's central valley, grapes are tended by hand. Temperatures can swing tens of degrees F over a few days, and the heat working within rows of grapes is four or five degrees F hotter than the surrounding area, some workers estimate. Farmers try to provide extra water for crops and humans alike, as well as shade. And they cut hours worked.

Tech: In heat waves, tech companies need extra effort to cool and safeguard big data centers, which are seeing soaring demand from the artificial-intelligence boom that relies on power-hungry microchips. That may mean use of backup generators, which data-center operators such as Digital Realty say can remain operational for hours, even days.

And cultural warriors wonder why business thinks ESG is relevant …

Will such stupidity never cease?

9) And another thing!

NYT: Well Beyond the U.S., Heat and Climate Extremes Are Hitting Billions

This is why our old models of measuring disaster and crisis are not holding up:

Between May 2023 and May 2024, an estimated 6.3 billion people, or roughly 4 out of 5 people in the world, lived through at least a month of what in their areas were considered abnormally high temperatures, according to a recent analysis by Climate Central, a scientific nonprofit.

The damage to human health, agriculture and the global economy is just beginning to be understood.

Great to work off of hard data, but not if that stringent requirement forces us to steer by looking into our rearview mirror (see my opening America’s New Map quote above).

We are driving through a blizzard of accumulating data.

Extreme heat killed an estimated 489,000 people annually between 2000 and 2019, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making heat the deadliest of all extreme weather events. Swiss RE, the insurance-industry giant, said in a report this week that the accumulating hazards of climate change could further drive the growing market for insurance against strikes and riots. “Climate change may also drive food and water shortages and in turn civil unrest, and mass migration,” the report said.

This is why I am going to Los Alamos National Lab this week.

10) In another life

Nobody can say that Thomas Barnett didn’t fight on the right side of history!

I have Thomas’ actual promotion paper to the rank of captain.

H/T my historian and archivist brother Andrew.

---