Trump, taking a page from autocrats everywhere, is an appetite, always on the make for "more". Tariffs are used, at the moment, to push the visage of the Great Man into ever living room on earth. Trump making motions to "solve" his self-made crises, one performance at a time, feeds the devoted with tales of his superiority, and sates the Great Man's need to be "seen".
Beyond this self-adulation, there's not much. I agree that there is a heavy inspiration to want to impose some kind of order on Trump's erraticism. I believe that is a fool's game.
With tariffs, Trump has merely found a great well of assets and is proceeding to gamble with these until it's not fun anymore. This is a guy who, when he put his mind to it, was able to enjoy 6 bankruptcies. Now he's in a larger economic environment. The appetite is the same. He just has a larger pot, and bonus(!), it's someone else's money!
This may stumble downhill long enough to generate this "5-families" kind of "solution. The way an avalanche carefully rearranges a mountainside. Trump will stand aside from all the destruction and declare victory. His minions, having failed to oppose any of his actions will be compelled to salute.
China, for its part can do what the US did prior to WWII. Stand back and wait for the rubble to settle, then step in with a "new world order". The "catch" for China is its dependency on domestic consumption. This weak flow cannot sustain Xi's plans. There appears to be no economic well-spring Xi can appeal to to float his vision of Chinese Centrality and a Xi-led future.
Putin, well, his Russia is a gas station with nuclear weapons. Any participation by Russia in a 5-families "solution" would be one no one would be inclined to sustain. So, spoilers, any 5-families "solution" would also need to effectively manage the two (so far) nuclear wild-cards (Russia, North Korea) who would feel both left out, and provoked by being left out.
Autocrats tend to not understand the concept of "earning".
As Trump renews his efforts to burnish his self-image in his mind-mirror, America may become aware that Trump is in fact spending American "resiliency" in his question for self-adoration. Whether this inspires appropriate push-back or viable objections, which could flower into a course change more favorable for the nation, is an open question.
on trumps motives... something I read last week will stick with me for a bit...
"some like to suggest that Trump is playing 4D chess despite the fact that nobody can ever recall a time he played or succeeded at 4D chess"
i think one of the political talents of Trump is that he can take any situation and make it seem like it was his plan all along.... but I often feel his plan is just to let his advisors run amok as he figureheads above it all, intervening only when the game is really on the line
if i read the headlines with any other mindset i get a headache
I think the strategy all along was to lure China into thinking Trump was going to wildly start raising tariffs and cause tariff wars all over the world. To encourage this China joined in to raise tariffs as others threatened to do but at the end of the day Trump, as planned, relented against everyone except China. So yes, now there is a tariff war but it not the US against the world, it is the tariff war Trump wanted, it is a tariff war against China. China desperately needs the American market and while we rely on China for a lot, this is a brilliant first step in encouraging manufacturing capacity all over the world to compete to replace China including our own domestic industry. Will it work? I do not know. I hope so. Bill Clinton sold out our country spearheading the admission of China into the WTO and trusting China to play fairly. They have been lawless, cheated, stolen and done grossly inhuman things from day one to exploit the world trading system. Now is the time to change that and we have the leadership in DC that can do that.
I cannot put into words the respect I have for you.
Your "Brief" and The Pentagon's New Map were the brightest lights in the world for me back in the 9/11 days. You appreciation for the role of demographics and economics and the challenges of growing the "connected" world together will always form the backbone of my world view.
High tariffs. IP theft. Other skullduggery. Isn't that how every rising capitalist country behaved until it caught up? Wasn't that how the U.S. did it in until the 20th Century? Ten years ago was the time to split the baby with China, before China loaded up its bazooka with treasury bonds. Yesterday China fired its salvo.
Trump, taking a page from autocrats everywhere, is an appetite, always on the make for "more". Tariffs are used, at the moment, to push the visage of the Great Man into ever living room on earth. Trump making motions to "solve" his self-made crises, one performance at a time, feeds the devoted with tales of his superiority, and sates the Great Man's need to be "seen".
Beyond this self-adulation, there's not much. I agree that there is a heavy inspiration to want to impose some kind of order on Trump's erraticism. I believe that is a fool's game.
With tariffs, Trump has merely found a great well of assets and is proceeding to gamble with these until it's not fun anymore. This is a guy who, when he put his mind to it, was able to enjoy 6 bankruptcies. Now he's in a larger economic environment. The appetite is the same. He just has a larger pot, and bonus(!), it's someone else's money!
This may stumble downhill long enough to generate this "5-families" kind of "solution. The way an avalanche carefully rearranges a mountainside. Trump will stand aside from all the destruction and declare victory. His minions, having failed to oppose any of his actions will be compelled to salute.
China, for its part can do what the US did prior to WWII. Stand back and wait for the rubble to settle, then step in with a "new world order". The "catch" for China is its dependency on domestic consumption. This weak flow cannot sustain Xi's plans. There appears to be no economic well-spring Xi can appeal to to float his vision of Chinese Centrality and a Xi-led future.
Putin, well, his Russia is a gas station with nuclear weapons. Any participation by Russia in a 5-families "solution" would be one no one would be inclined to sustain. So, spoilers, any 5-families "solution" would also need to effectively manage the two (so far) nuclear wild-cards (Russia, North Korea) who would feel both left out, and provoked by being left out.
Autocrats tend to not understand the concept of "earning".
As Trump renews his efforts to burnish his self-image in his mind-mirror, America may become aware that Trump is in fact spending American "resiliency" in his question for self-adoration. Whether this inspires appropriate push-back or viable objections, which could flower into a course change more favorable for the nation, is an open question.
interesting read
on trumps motives... something I read last week will stick with me for a bit...
"some like to suggest that Trump is playing 4D chess despite the fact that nobody can ever recall a time he played or succeeded at 4D chess"
i think one of the political talents of Trump is that he can take any situation and make it seem like it was his plan all along.... but I often feel his plan is just to let his advisors run amok as he figureheads above it all, intervening only when the game is really on the line
if i read the headlines with any other mindset i get a headache
I think you have this wrong Dr Barnett.
I think the strategy all along was to lure China into thinking Trump was going to wildly start raising tariffs and cause tariff wars all over the world. To encourage this China joined in to raise tariffs as others threatened to do but at the end of the day Trump, as planned, relented against everyone except China. So yes, now there is a tariff war but it not the US against the world, it is the tariff war Trump wanted, it is a tariff war against China. China desperately needs the American market and while we rely on China for a lot, this is a brilliant first step in encouraging manufacturing capacity all over the world to compete to replace China including our own domestic industry. Will it work? I do not know. I hope so. Bill Clinton sold out our country spearheading the admission of China into the WTO and trusting China to play fairly. They have been lawless, cheated, stolen and done grossly inhuman things from day one to exploit the world trading system. Now is the time to change that and we have the leadership in DC that can do that.
This is definitely what the White House is now selling. At best, this was their planned excuse all along if the gambit failed.
Thank you for the reply
I cannot put into words the respect I have for you.
Your "Brief" and The Pentagon's New Map were the brightest lights in the world for me back in the 9/11 days. You appreciation for the role of demographics and economics and the challenges of growing the "connected" world together will always form the backbone of my world view.
I do believe you are a gift to the world.
Paul Cox
You are very kind.
High tariffs. IP theft. Other skullduggery. Isn't that how every rising capitalist country behaved until it caught up? Wasn't that how the U.S. did it in until the 20th Century? Ten years ago was the time to split the baby with China, before China loaded up its bazooka with treasury bonds. Yesterday China fired its salvo.