Tom, thank you for the thoughtful and detailed response to my set of questions. Having read the North-South strategy laid out in ANM I naturally asked myself how does that happen in the decades ahead given the past and persisting challenges some of which I included in my question set. Thanks for addressing those so carefully.
I like your reframing of the question to the comparative probability of North-South integration: - Americas vs Africa-Europe-part of Eurasia - South Asia-Eurasia which makes the Americas seem more likely to find the ways & means to push things through (eventually).
I think that N-S needle also gets some diagonal drift from "Out of Africa" to Nth America (ref: The Economist article from earlier this year) and South Asia to N America. Just that much harder for those flows to happen. Comparative advantage theory addresses poor-rich economy trade best, but intra-industry trade better explains trade between high income economies (eg think BMW, Toyota, US brands, Saab, Kia, Hyundai in auto market trade) - hence my leaning towards still significant East-West flows. Plus, under climate change, livability & cheaper networks are in west-east bands.
I appreciate you dealing with the natural/environmental challenges in ANM too. In way of a small token of thanks this article in yesterday's WAPO showing the complexity of human modification of nature and a hook to North-South integration - The fate of Horsehoe Crabs on Delaware bay and its impact as a stopover feeding point for the endangered redknot bird on its N-S migration from the tip of S. America to the Arctic tundra
(I miss the Sunday Cutdowns - another pair of eyes, another very active mind is always a spur to keep up - though I'm guessing the change of circumstances means other things must change or go, as we're all experiencing.)
Tom, thank you for the thoughtful and detailed response to my set of questions. Having read the North-South strategy laid out in ANM I naturally asked myself how does that happen in the decades ahead given the past and persisting challenges some of which I included in my question set. Thanks for addressing those so carefully.
I like your reframing of the question to the comparative probability of North-South integration: - Americas vs Africa-Europe-part of Eurasia - South Asia-Eurasia which makes the Americas seem more likely to find the ways & means to push things through (eventually).
I think that N-S needle also gets some diagonal drift from "Out of Africa" to Nth America (ref: The Economist article from earlier this year) and South Asia to N America. Just that much harder for those flows to happen. Comparative advantage theory addresses poor-rich economy trade best, but intra-industry trade better explains trade between high income economies (eg think BMW, Toyota, US brands, Saab, Kia, Hyundai in auto market trade) - hence my leaning towards still significant East-West flows. Plus, under climate change, livability & cheaper networks are in west-east bands.
I appreciate you dealing with the natural/environmental challenges in ANM too. In way of a small token of thanks this article in yesterday's WAPO showing the complexity of human modification of nature and a hook to North-South integration - The fate of Horsehoe Crabs on Delaware bay and its impact as a stopover feeding point for the endangered redknot bird on its N-S migration from the tip of S. America to the Arctic tundra
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/08/16/horseshoe-crab-conservation-research/
(I miss the Sunday Cutdowns - another pair of eyes, another very active mind is always a spur to keep up - though I'm guessing the change of circumstances means other things must change or go, as we're all experiencing.)